So I've looked at the possibility that the radio swaps could give a clue about the TV packages. Here's what we know about the radio packages:
1. BBC 5Live have 5 of the 8 packages. This includes most of the Saturday 12:30, Saturday 15:00, Sunday 16:00 and Monday/Friday 20:00 slots.
2. The BBC have 144 live games*.
3. TalkSPORT have the other 3 packages. This includes Saturday 15:00, Saturday 17:30 and Sunday 13:30.
4. TalkSPORT have 28 games in each of the Saturday 17:30 and Sunday 13:30 slots*.
That TalkSPORT have 28 games in their two televised slots suggests that they match the TV packages for these slots. Furthermore, if we assume the same for 5Live, then the three main televised packages would come to 84 games. If we exclude the last weekend of the season, then there are 32 Saturday 15:00 games. That takes the total to 116. This leaves 28 games which coincidentally is the number of games in Package F and G.
Unlike (I think) in previous seasons, a number of games have been broadcast by the BBC that would ordinarily be broadcast by TalkSPORT. This would suggest that the radio packages have been aligned with TV packages. So could it be the case that when 5Live has a game in the Saturday 17:30, Sunday 12:00 or Sunday 13:30/14:15 slot, does that mean that the game is from Package F or G?
Here are two spreadsheets showing the packages that I thought the games were in and the second showing what the radio rule would suggest:
2016-17
2016-17 Radio
Here are the games where the radio rule matches what I had:
5 - Sunday 12:00 - Watford v Man Utd -
F4
10 - Saturday 17:30 - Crystal Palace v Liverpool -
F2
12 - Saturday 17:30 - Tottenham v West Ham -
F4
15 - Sunday 12:00 - Chelsea v West Brom -
F4
It's worth saying that with 5Live having the Sunday 16:00/16:30 games, it's not possible to identify Package G games in these slots.
Here are the weeks where the radio rule would suggest different packages. The packages in bold are those according to the radio rule and those in brackets are what I had originally thought.
Week 8
Sat 12:30 - TS - Chelsea v Leicester -
C2 (C4)
Sat 17:30 - 5L - Crystal Palace v West Ham -
F4 (B5)
Sun 13:30 - 5L - Middlesbrough v Watford -
A5 (A2)
Sun 16:00 - 5L - Southampton v Burnley -
D1 (D1)
Mon 20:00 - 5L - Liverpool v Man Utd -
E3 (E3)
When the new packages were revealed last year, one thing I assumed was that BT would make sure that each of their eight weekend games in Package F would feature a Big 6 club. So to see Crystal Palace v West Ham as a fourth pick in Package F is a surprise. It's worth noting that BT would have picked this game over the Man City v Everton and Arsenal v Swansea. I have previously speculated that BT have issues with Everton in Package F, but the radio rule suggests that Chelsea v Everton is a Package B game (see Week 11). So I think BT could have picked Man City v Everton and still got Everton v Arsenal and Man Utd v Everton as midweek picks. However, if BT were determined to take West Ham v Man City in January and, presumably, Chelsea v Man City in April, then Man City v Everton was off limits. Alternatively they could have taken Arsenal v Swansea in Week 8 or not used a fourth pick in Package F and taken Palace v West Ham as a fifth pick in Package B. Yes, it would mean the fourth pick in Package F would effectively become a fifth or even sixth pick, but at some point a decent enough Big 6 game would come up
Anyway, the West Ham quota is filled by their game with Arsenal (see Week 14), but the Palace quota isn't. So a test of this rule is to see if BT pick Palace in the Saturday 17:30 slot with it live on TalkSPORT.
Week 9
Sat 12:30 - 5L - Bournemouth v Tottenham -
A2 (A2)
Sat 17:30 - TS - Liverpool v West Brom -
B5 (B3)
Sun 13:30 - 5L - Man City v Southampton -
G3 (C4)
Sun 16:00 - 5L - Chelsea v Man Utd -
D1 (D1)
As 5Live covered Man City v Southampton, this game would appear to be a third pick from Package G. That means that Liverpool v West Brom is a fifth pick from Package B. It also appears that one of Sky or BT didn't use their fourth pick. I guess it would be BT, but they appear to have managed to use all of their fourth picks.
Week 11
Sat 17:30 - TS - Chelsea v Everton -
B3 (B1)
Sun 12:00 - TS - Arsenal v Tottenham -
B1 (F2)
Sun 14:15 - TS - Liverpool v Watford -
C2 (G3)
Sun 16:30 - 5L - Leicester v West Brom -
D4 (D4)
With TalkSPORT doing both Chelsea v Everton and Arsenal v Tottenham, it would appear that both are from Package B. I didn't expect this to happen, but I guess it would get Arsenal v Tottenham back to being a first pick. I have put Chelsea v Everton down as a third pick, but it might just be the case that they didn't use their second pick in Package F and got this game as a fifth pick in Package B.
What I am really surprised about is that Liverpool v Watford appears to be a Package C game. That looked to me like a Package G game with Sky filling the Watford min quota in Package C with their game against Spurs on New Year's Day. Perhaps Leicester v West Brom is a Package G game, but that would leave the West Brom min quota in Package D to be filled.
Week 13
Sat 12:30 - 5L - Burnley v Man City -
F2 (F2)
Sat 17:30 - TS - Chelsea v Tottenham -
B1 (B1)
Sun 12:00 - 5L - Watford v Stoke -
G3 or
E3 (D4)
Sun 14:15 - TS - Arsenal v Bournemouth -
C5 (C5 or E4)
Sun 16:30 - 5L - Southampton v Everton -
D4 (G3)
If Man City v Southampton in Week 9 is a Package G game, that means Southampton v Everton cannot be. Furthermore, we had wondered if Arsenal v Bournemouth was a Package E game, but as it's on TalkSPORT, it would appear to be a Package C game. So if Southampton v Everton is a Package D game, that would suggest that Watford v Stoke isn't. That could be a Package G game (which would confirm Leicester v West Brom as Package D game as Sky need two Package G games to get their fill of Liverpool and Chelsea). Alternatively, it could be a Package E game that couldn't be played on the Monday night in case either Watford or Stoke were involved in the League Cup quarter final. This would suggest that Sky don't have to use one of their Friday games when two teams can play on Friday but not Monday.
Week 14
Sat 12:30 - 5L - Man City v Chelsea -
A2 (A2)
Sat 17:30 - TS - West Ham v Arsenal -
B3 (F4)
Sun 13:30 - TS - Bournemouth v Liverpool -
C5 (C5)
Sun 14:15 - 5L - Everton v Man Utd -
D1 (D1)
Mon 20:00 - 5L - Middlesbrough v Hull -
E4 (E3)
West Ham v Arsenal would appear to be a Package B game as it is on TalkSPORT. But Bournemouth v Liverpool appears to be a Package C game (rather than G) as that is also on TalkSPORT.
Week 21
Sat 12:30 - ? - Tottenham v West Brom -
A2 (A2)
Sat 17:30 - ? - Leicester v Chelsea -
B3 (B3)
Sun 13:30 - ? - Everton v Man City -
C4 (G3)
Sun 16:00 - ? - Man Utd v Liverpool -
D1 (D1)
We don't know the radio games for Week 21, but as Man City v Southampton appears to be a Package G game, this would suggest that Everton v Man City is a Package C game. This would be supported by it being on TalkSPORT. It's worth saying that the lack of a Package G game featuring Everton means that the omission of Leicester v Everton on Boxing Day looks a bit odd. Perhaps Sky just wanted to get as many teams on TV over Christmas and so it worked better that way.
So if the radio rule is correct, it means that BT are on four picks for Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester and Man City. It also means that Sky still have to get Chelsea and Liverpool in Package G as well as filling nine min quotas rather than five. It feels like the rule should work, but some of the picks do look odd. As ever with these things, there are things that would disprove the rule (e.g. Palace not appearing in Package B), but not many things that would prove the rule for sure.
*
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36348224
**
http://talksport.com/press/talksport...r-160520196679