Originally Posted by george.millman:
“It's not equivalent to that, because it isn't a 50/50 chance. There are numerous things that make it balanced against the women, mostly to do with sexist attitudes ingrained in people's minds. Female Housemates are more likely to be criticised for things, whereas male Housemates are given the benefit of the doubt for a few weeks - look at how much more Laura has been criticised than Marco, even though he's the one with a partner and she's not cheating on anyone. Also, I believe more women vote on Big Brother than men, and women are statistically more likely to be critical of the behaviour of other women - it's a sexual attraction thing.
That said, that doesn't mean that it's certain that a woman will always go, and I do think this year we have more chance of a male first evictee than there has been in the past.”
Well, whatever odds you want to give it, what has happened before is no more or less likely to happen again. And applying that sort of anecdotal reasoning by way of explanation when interpreting the statistical significance of a sample of just 16 is a bit of a stretch. What you're really saying is that you think women are critical of women, and that the fact that the first one out on UKBB has thus far been female every time somehow validates your assumption. That isn't how statistics work.
Does the pattern remain when you include all of the Celebrity Big Brothers? Does it remain in other countries? And if not, are we going to conclude that British women are critical of other women, moreso than in other countries?
I don't remember every Big Brother contestant by any means but generally speaking, if my memory serves me correctly, the first one out is normally either a massive tool or a bore. And I wouldn't suggest for one second that women are statistically more likely to be a massive tool or a bore than men are. That just happens to have been the case the last 16 times here in the UK.