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The third place qualifier situation


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Old 18-06-2016, 01:23
Fudd
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As it stands:

Spoiler


I'll update Groups E and F once they've completed their second round of matches. At the moment it looks like four points could well be cut off point between qualification and going home.
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Old 18-06-2016, 08:16
ags_rule
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I had a look at the group tables for Italia 90, which had the exact same format, just to see what way the groups turned out.

Once you adjust the points so it's three points for a win instead of two, it turns out as you say - a win and a draw was the minimum needed to qualify. The two teams who went out only had one win.

Having said that, the Euros are arguably a more competitive tournament than the WC at the group stage as you don't have any of the really weak teams who everybody trounces. Looking at the tables as they stand, I'm really not convinced every single third placed team will have at least three points - certainly I think group A and group D that could happen, and today's result in the ROI/Belgium game could create a similar situation.
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Old 18-06-2016, 08:45
Mark F
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I did a prediction thing last night (so it will be totally wrong!!!)

Had England to play Czech Republic (both to win their final games)

Also had Wales and NI going through to face Spain and France.
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Old 18-06-2016, 11:11
DUNDEEBOY
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Do think you might end with a rogue third placer maybe a Croatia or a Belgium which might completely change the direction of the tournament as one of them will play a group winner.

Could have Croatia v Italy for example
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Old 18-06-2016, 15:37
Fudd
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Do think you might end with a rogue third placer maybe a Croatia or a Belgium which might completely change the direction of the tournament as one of them will play a group winner.

Could have Croatia v Italy for example
Croatia could slip to third if they lose to Spain and the Czechs best Turkey. It looks like Belgium will avoid third now. England is a possibility if they lose to Slovakia whilst the Welsh beat Russia. Switzerland finishing below Romania is an outside bet. I can't see Germany or Poland falling below Northern Ireland. If Portugal lose to Austria tonight that could make things very interesting in Group F; a lot of people were saying Austria were dark horses so for them to finish below at least one of Hungary and Iceland would be a surprise too.

Out of all the sides I'd say Croatia are the best bet to be a 'surprise' third place with a lot of pressure in Portugal and Austria. England could easily end up there too.
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Old 18-06-2016, 15:54
Fudd
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So the next update...

Spoiler


Four points is the upper level once again. It's possible all third place teams will finish on third points which will be fun for the boffins to sort out!
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Old 18-06-2016, 15:56
DUNDEEBOY
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So the next update...

Spoiler


Four points is the upper level once again. It's possible all third place teams will finish on third points which will be fun for the boffins to sort out!
Feel this will be the group will be where the third placer is eliminated
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Old 18-06-2016, 17:45
sodavlac
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I had a look at the group tables for Italia 90, which had the exact same format, just to see what way the groups turned out.

Once you adjust the points so it's three points for a win instead of two, it turns out as you say - a win and a draw was the minimum needed to qualify. The two teams who went out only had one win.
1994 was the same.

In '86 2 points was enough, the equivalent of one win then. Bulgaria and Uruguay went through with that tally although neither of them actually won 1 and lost 2. They both drew 2 and lost 1. Hungary who did win 1 and lost 2 missed out on goal difference.

Could easily have been different as Uruguay's GD at -5 wasn't exactly great, losing 6-1 in their defeat. Still, it beat out Hungary's -7 (Won 2-0, lost 3-0 and 6-0) and no team with 1 win and 2 losses went through.
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Old 18-06-2016, 18:10
DUNDEEBOY
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their is a fair chance Northern Ireland will be a guaranteed third placer before the even play Germany .

I suppose you are disadvantaged if your group is one of the first to finish like tomorrow could be hanging about 3 days not knowing if you are out or not
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Old 18-06-2016, 23:26
Fudd
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Finally but not least:

Spoiler


Current ranking of Third Place Teams
1. Northern Ireland: 3 points / +1 Goal Difference
2. Slovakia: 3 / 0
3. Portugal: 2 / 0
4. Czech Republic: 1 / -1 / scored two
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Romania: 1 / -1 / scored two
6. Sweden: 1 / -1 / scored one

I presume the Czech are above the Romanians because they've played teams with a higher UEFA co-efficients than Romania.

As each table stands the Last 16 looks like this:
Spoiler
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Old 18-06-2016, 23:55
sodavlac
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I presume the Czech are above the Romanians because they've played teams with a higher UEFA co-efficients than Romania.
It's their fair play records. The Czechs have picked up 2 yellow cards, Romania 7.

It's 1 point for a yellow card, 3 for a red.

Edit:
A red for 2 yellows = 3 points and the individual yellows don't count.
A straight red card for someone already on a yellow = 4 points.
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:01
Eurostar
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Finally but not least:

Spoiler


Current ranking of Third Place Teams
1. Northern Ireland: 3 points / +1 Goal Difference
2. Slovakia: 3 / 0
3. Portugal: 2 / 0
4. Czech Republic: 1 / -1 / scored two
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
5. Romania: 1 / -1 / scored two
6. Sweden: 1 / -1 / scored one

I presume the Czech are above the Romanians because they've played teams with a higher UEFA co-efficients than Romania.

As each table stands the Last 16 looks like this:
Spoiler
There could be changes here of course. NI and Slovakia face the top seeds in their next match and may well lose, meaning some 4th placed teams could come into contention by leapfrogging them.
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:10
Terry N
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There could be changes here of course. NI and Slovakia face the top seeds in their next match and may well lose, meaning some 4th placed teams could come into contention by leapfrogging them.
It'll be all change, NI need another point or they could be out.
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:22
Amanda_Raymond
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I'm hoping Wales come 2nd, not 3rd, ( I don't think we'll come 1st), I was worried Portugal would be 2nd but after tonight's results I'll be very surprised if they come 2nd, could win the group or come 3rd, but to come 2nd both resluts would have to end in a draw and Portugal-Hungary be a higher score draw then Austria-Iceland
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Old 19-06-2016, 01:02
Eurostar
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It'll be all change, NI need another point or they could be out.
Not sure they'll get it. Both Germany and Poland are chasing top spot which means the Germans need a win over NI.
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Old 19-06-2016, 01:11
The_Bonobo
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So the next update...

Spoiler


Four points is the upper level once again. It's possible all third place teams will finish on third points which will be fun for the boffins to sort out!
Is the minimum points for 3rd (Group E) not 1 point? In fact that seems quite likely.
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Old 19-06-2016, 01:23
Fudd
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Is the minimum points for 3rd (Group E) not 1 point? In fact that seems quite likely.
Yes, you're right - both Sweden and Ireland could end up on one point. Sorry about that.
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Old 19-06-2016, 01:26
Fudd
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It's their fair play records. The Czechs have picked up 2 yellow cards, Romania 7.

It's 1 point for a yellow card, 3 for a red.

Edit:
A red for 2 yellows = 3 points and the individual yellows don't count.
A straight red card for someone already on a yellow = 4 points.
Ah right, thanks. So we're going to have to keep an eye out on the number of bookings as well?
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Old 19-06-2016, 08:07
tiger2000
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This Simulator lets you play around with the various permutations and outcomes

http://ultra.zone/UEFA-EURO-2016-Group-Stage#group=a
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Old 19-06-2016, 13:09
Cissy Fairfax
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There is a huge advantage in being in Group E and especially Group F as you will know exactly how many points are required to take a third place, whereas the earlier sides have no idea if three points will be enough.
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Old 19-06-2016, 14:33
MR_Pitkin
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Is it mathematically possible for a team finishing 4th in their group to have more points than a 3rd place team in another group who qualifies?
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Old 19-06-2016, 14:39
DUNDEEBOY
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Is it mathematically possible for a team finishing 4th in their group to have more points than a 3rd place team in another group who qualifies?
Yes I think 4 could finish on 4 points bottom goes out, yet someone goes through 3 from another group
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Old 19-06-2016, 14:48
celesti
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Ireland's group in USA 94 finished like that

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_F...ld_Cup_Group_E
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Old 19-06-2016, 15:10
batdude_uk1
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Yes I think 4 could finish on 4 points bottom goes out, yet someone goes through 3 from another group
That would be very unlucky for those teams going out with less points.
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Old 19-06-2016, 18:42
Amanda_Raymond
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A draw between Romania and Albania would more then likely put them both out i'm guessing, although not mathmatically, if Romania end up tonight on 2 points, they'd techinally still be in
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