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The third place qualifier situation |
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#1 |
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,021
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The third place qualifier situation
As it stands:
Spoiler
I'll update Groups E and F once they've completed their second round of matches. At the moment it looks like four points could well be cut off point between qualification and going home. |
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#2 |
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Join Date: May 2005
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I had a look at the group tables for Italia 90, which had the exact same format, just to see what way the groups turned out.
Once you adjust the points so it's three points for a win instead of two, it turns out as you say - a win and a draw was the minimum needed to qualify. The two teams who went out only had one win. Having said that, the Euros are arguably a more competitive tournament than the WC at the group stage as you don't have any of the really weak teams who everybody trounces. Looking at the tables as they stand, I'm really not convinced every single third placed team will have at least three points - certainly I think group A and group D that could happen, and today's result in the ROI/Belgium game could create a similar situation. |
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#3 |
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Join Date: Jun 2009
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I did a prediction thing last night (so it will be totally wrong!!!)
Had England to play Czech Republic (both to win their final games) Also had Wales and NI going through to face Spain and France. |
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#4 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Do think you might end with a rogue third placer maybe a Croatia or a Belgium which might completely change the direction of the tournament as one of them will play a group winner.
Could have Croatia v Italy for example |
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#5 |
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Quote:
Do think you might end with a rogue third placer maybe a Croatia or a Belgium which might completely change the direction of the tournament as one of them will play a group winner.
Could have Croatia v Italy for example Out of all the sides I'd say Croatia are the best bet to be a 'surprise' third place with a lot of pressure in Portugal and Austria. England could easily end up there too. |
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#6 |
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So the next update...
Spoiler
Four points is the upper level once again. It's possible all third place teams will finish on third points which will be fun for the boffins to sort out! |
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#7 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Quote:
So the next update...
Spoiler
Four points is the upper level once again. It's possible all third place teams will finish on third points which will be fun for the boffins to sort out! |
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#8 |
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Join Date: Jan 2010
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Quote:
I had a look at the group tables for Italia 90, which had the exact same format, just to see what way the groups turned out.
Once you adjust the points so it's three points for a win instead of two, it turns out as you say - a win and a draw was the minimum needed to qualify. The two teams who went out only had one win. In '86 2 points was enough, the equivalent of one win then. Bulgaria and Uruguay went through with that tally although neither of them actually won 1 and lost 2. They both drew 2 and lost 1. Hungary who did win 1 and lost 2 missed out on goal difference. Could easily have been different as Uruguay's GD at -5 wasn't exactly great, losing 6-1 in their defeat. Still, it beat out Hungary's -7 (Won 2-0, lost 3-0 and 6-0) and no team with 1 win and 2 losses went through. |
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#9 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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their is a fair chance Northern Ireland will be a guaranteed third placer before the even play Germany .
I suppose you are disadvantaged if your group is one of the first to finish like tomorrow could be hanging about 3 days not knowing if you are out or not |
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#10 |
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Finally but not least:
Spoiler
Current ranking of Third Place Teams 1. Northern Ireland: 3 points / +1 Goal Difference 2. Slovakia: 3 / 0 3. Portugal: 2 / 0 4. Czech Republic: 1 / -1 / scored two --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. Romania: 1 / -1 / scored two 6. Sweden: 1 / -1 / scored one I presume the Czech are above the Romanians because they've played teams with a higher UEFA co-efficients than Romania. As each table stands the Last 16 looks like this:
Spoiler
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#11 |
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Join Date: Jan 2010
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Quote:
I presume the Czech are above the Romanians because they've played teams with a higher UEFA co-efficients than Romania.
It's 1 point for a yellow card, 3 for a red. Edit: A red for 2 yellows = 3 points and the individual yellows don't count. A straight red card for someone already on a yellow = 4 points. |
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#12 |
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,615
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Quote:
Finally but not least:
Spoiler
Current ranking of Third Place Teams 1. Northern Ireland: 3 points / +1 Goal Difference 2. Slovakia: 3 / 0 3. Portugal: 2 / 0 4. Czech Republic: 1 / -1 / scored two --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. Romania: 1 / -1 / scored two 6. Sweden: 1 / -1 / scored one I presume the Czech are above the Romanians because they've played teams with a higher UEFA co-efficients than Romania. As each table stands the Last 16 looks like this:
Spoiler
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#13 |
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Join Date: Aug 2013
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Quote:
There could be changes here of course. NI and Slovakia face the top seeds in their next match and may well lose, meaning some 4th placed teams could come into contention by leapfrogging them.
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#14 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
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I'm hoping Wales come 2nd, not 3rd, ( I don't think we'll come 1st), I was worried Portugal would be 2nd but after tonight's results I'll be very surprised if they come 2nd, could win the group or come 3rd, but to come 2nd both resluts would have to end in a draw and Portugal-Hungary be a higher score draw then Austria-Iceland
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#15 |
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
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Quote:
It'll be all change, NI need another point or they could be out.
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#16 |
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Join Date: Jun 2013
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Quote:
So the next update...
Spoiler
Four points is the upper level once again. It's possible all third place teams will finish on third points which will be fun for the boffins to sort out! |
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#17 |
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,021
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Quote:
Is the minimum points for 3rd (Group E) not 1 point? In fact that seems quite likely.
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#18 |
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Quote:
It's their fair play records. The Czechs have picked up 2 yellow cards, Romania 7.
It's 1 point for a yellow card, 3 for a red. Edit: A red for 2 yellows = 3 points and the individual yellows don't count. A straight red card for someone already on a yellow = 4 points.
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#19 |
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Join Date: Jul 2003
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This Simulator lets you play around with the various permutations and outcomes
http://ultra.zone/UEFA-EURO-2016-Group-Stage#group=a |
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#20 |
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 7,349
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There is a huge advantage in being in Group E and especially Group F as you will know exactly how many points are required to take a third place, whereas the earlier sides have no idea if three points will be enough.
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#21 |
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Is it mathematically possible for a team finishing 4th in their group to have more points than a 3rd place team in another group who qualifies?
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#22 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Quote:
Is it mathematically possible for a team finishing 4th in their group to have more points than a 3rd place team in another group who qualifies?
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#23 |
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#24 |
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Quote:
Yes I think 4 could finish on 4 points bottom goes out, yet someone goes through 3 from another group
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#25 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
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A draw between Romania and Albania would more then likely put them both out i'm guessing, although not mathmatically, if Romania end up tonight on 2 points, they'd techinally still be in
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