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The third place qualifier situation


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Old 19-06-2016, 18:49
Jason C
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A draw between Romania and Albania would more then likely put them both out i'm guessing, although not mathmatically, if Romania end up tonight on 2 points, they'd techinally still be in
True, but the chance of any country being a best third place qualifier with only two points is miniscule.
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Old 19-06-2016, 21:56
Terry N
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If England beat Slovakia tomorrow without conceding NI are through?
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Old 19-06-2016, 22:02
Jason C
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If England beat Slovakia tomorrow without conceding NI are through?
Not necessarily; if Northern Ireland get thumped by Germany, their goal difference could well become worse than Albania's and Slovakia's.
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Old 19-06-2016, 22:06
ags_rule
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As long as we don't get thumped by the Germans it looks as though we will have enough to get through. Unfortunately now have very mixed emotions towards the ROI game against Italy because as much as I'd like to see them win, a draw or loss combined with the same result between Belgium/Sweden would be enough to guarantee our qualification (again presuming our GD remains better than Albania's after the Germany game).
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Old 19-06-2016, 22:06
Bosox
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Northern Ireland should just name 10 defenders and not come out of their own half. A one goal defeat will surely see them through because I can't see Ireland or Sweden getting a win in their last games.
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Old 19-06-2016, 22:07
Terry N
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Not necessarily; if Northern Ireland get thumped by Germany, their goal difference could well become worse than Albania's and Slovakia's.
If goal difference is the same does it go to cards given? They have more than us.
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Old 19-06-2016, 22:10
Bosox
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If goal difference is the same does it go to cards given? They have more than us.
Yes, but goals scored first before fair play. NI have already scored more than Albania.

The four best third-placed teams are determined according to the following criteria:

Higher number of points obtained;
Superior goal difference;
Higher number of goals scored;
Fair play conduct;
Position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system.
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Old 19-06-2016, 22:14
DUNDEEBOY
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So with five groups to finish and n Ireland top of best third place table , n Ireland group third group to finish so if they are still in top best third placer after Germany game they will be definitely though.

Hope that makes sense, don't think the third placer thing will get exciting till Tuesday
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Old 19-06-2016, 22:33
Fudd
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First third place team confirmed:

Albania - 3 points / GD -2 / Scored 1 / 9 Bookings, 1 Red Card / UEFA Coefficient 31st

Remaining current third places (two games played each):
Spoiler


In terms of the remaining Home Nations and the Republic of Ireland:
Spoiler


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Old 19-06-2016, 22:40
Michael_Eve
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A Welshie who is rubbish at this sort of statistical stuff writes: Thanks, OP and others. Finding this thread v helpful.
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Old 20-06-2016, 13:39
AshMan123
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Posted this in another topic but theoretically England could still go out with 4 points.
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Old 20-06-2016, 13:54
Bosox
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Given that 3rd place in Group A is already behind England's 4 points it would need NI to avoid defeat v Germany, Czech Rep beat Turkey, Ireland to beat Italy by a big margin, Portugal to beat Hungary, and there to be a winner in the Iceland v Austria game. Plus England to lose by enough to hurt goal difference.

Don't think anyone should be losing sleep on that.
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Old 20-06-2016, 13:58
AshMan123
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Given that 3rd place in Group A is already behind England's 4 points it would need NI to avoid defeat v Germany, Czech Rep beat Turkey, Ireland to beat Italy by a big margin, Portugal to beat Hungary, and there to be a winner in the Iceland v Austria game. Plus England to lose by enough to hurt goal difference.

Don't think anyone should be losing sleep on that.
Neither do I but its a chance-
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Old 20-06-2016, 14:10
celesti
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It's a bit like flying - I know it's statistically safe but I'm always still a little relieved to land.
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Old 20-06-2016, 14:13
AshMan123
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It's a bit like flying - I know it's statistically safe but I'm always still a little relieved to land.
Love it
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Old 20-06-2016, 14:36
batdude_uk1
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Neither do I but its a chance-
Yeah a 0.000000001% chance of all of that coming to pass.
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Old 20-06-2016, 14:46
AshMan123
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Yeah a 0.000000001% chance of all of that coming to pass.
So what odds would you have put on Leicester winning the league then or Wigan the fa cup. Anyone can sit here and state the obvious factually I was stating that England could still go out
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Old 20-06-2016, 14:50
walterwhite
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So what odds would you have put on Leicester winning the league then or Wigan the fa cup. Anyone can sit here and state the obvious factually I was stating that England could still go out
Oh christ, not the Leicester argument again.
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Old 20-06-2016, 14:59
batdude_uk1
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So what odds would you have put on Leicester winning the league then or Wigan the fa cup. Anyone can sit here and state the obvious factually I was stating that England could still go out
We are talking about multiple matches involving multiple teams, all needing to go the "wrong" way if England are not to progress with four points, it is highly unlikely, hence why I have put down the percentage chance of them all happening.
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Old 20-06-2016, 15:14
AshMan123
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We are talking about multiple matches involving multiple teams, all needing to go the "wrong" way if England are not to progress with four points, it is highly unlikely, hence why I have put down the percentage chance of them all happening.
Would be interesting to see if anyone had a bet to seethe various permutations for England to go out and what odds the bookies would give. Can guarantee its not 50001-.

Not the Leicester argue ant just the anything can happen in sport and every positive ( for the other nations) add to the chances of England going out
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Old 20-06-2016, 16:20
Bosox
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It's possible in the same way it was possible that Man United could have qualified for the Champions League in their delayed game with Bournemouth when they just had to win by c. 19 goals.

Noting it's possibility as a quirky fact is fine, losing any sleep fretting about it would be silly.
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Old 20-06-2016, 20:02
Mandark
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I don't see the third place team in Group E, Sweden/Ireland getting more than 2 points. Czech Rep. Turkey result is important as a draw could knock them both out.

I've had a good play with the predictor model and I'm calling it! England seem most likely to be meeting Albania based on current form. As long as Wales avoid losing by more than 2 goals I think they're through. I think Northern Ireland will concede a few against Germany which will knock them out. Ireland will lose to Italy and Sweden to Belgium.
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Old 20-06-2016, 20:07
DUNDEEBOY
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Just thinking could Northern Ireland qualify tonight if they are still top 3rd placer in the standings"

There will be three groups to finish excluding their own therefore the worst they call fall is,to fourth third placer
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Old 20-06-2016, 20:13
Mandark
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Just thinking could Northern Ireland qualify tonight if they are still top 3rd placer in the standings"

There will be three groups to finish excluding their own therefore the worst they call fall is,to fourth third placer
No because their goal difference could be wrecked by Germany and they could fall behind Albania and even a losing Slovakia.
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Old 20-06-2016, 20:26
DUNDEEBOY
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No because their goal difference could be wrecked by Germany and they could fall behind Albania and even a losing Slovakia.
But four teams couldn't overhaul them though

Sorry I see they could be overhauled by teams not playing if they took a thrashing
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