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Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland comparisons
DUNDEEBOY
19-06-2016
Watching both these teams over the last few days it seems the fortunes definitely seem to be going in different directions.

Republic of Ireland were so negative yesterday and kind of got what they deserved i.e. Nothing.

Whereas the norm were so positive against the Ukraine and were rewarded especially getting the second with the positive attitude

They also played some good stuff, traditionally you think of the republic as being better than the north but really don't think that is the case anymore
Black Hugh
19-06-2016
Considering Northern Ireland won their group and the Republic came third in theirs it already appeared that this could be the case. Although the Republics group seems to have been more difficult

NI were poor in their game against Poland and could be thumped by Germany in the same way that the Belgians exposed ROI in the second half yesterday. Although the NI defence seems well drilled and could cope. d think they will perform better than the ROI will against Italy.

It will be clearer by the end of the week.
Eurostar
19-06-2016
It depends on which performance you look at. NI were really poor and ultra defensive against Poland and could easily have lost by a much bigger margin. Michael O'Neill made five changes and threw caution to the wind and was rewarded against Ukraine.

The Republic were very positive and on the front foot against Sweden but were way too negative and looked nervy against Belgium.

So you could argue the two O'Neills got one game right and one game wrong.

Ditching the diamond formation and playing only one striker up front was a big mistake by Martin O'Neill yesterday. He may need to drop a few underperforming players too, especially James McCarthy and Ciaran Clark.
ags_rule
19-06-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“It depends on which performance you look at. NI were really poor and ultra defensive against Poland and could easily have lost by a much bigger margin. Michael O'Neill made five changes and threw caution to the wind and was rewarded against Ukraine.

The Republic were very positive and on the front foot against Sweden but were way too negative and looked nervy against Belgium.

So you could argue the two O'Neills got one game right and one game wrong.

Ditching the diamond formation and playing only one striker up front was a big mistake by Martin O'Neill yesterday. He may need to drop a few underperforming players too, especially James McCarthy and Ciaran Clark.”

I'd say this is a fair analysis. We (NI) were dire against Poland but much more positive against Ukraine; ROI were great against Sweden and should have won, but they were poor against Belgium and this showed.

I think both teams are very similar in quality tbh. ROI are stronger going forward but I'd say we're better defensively.

Both sides have a real uphill battle to get anything from their final game but I'd say ROI stand a better chance - Italy are a weaker team than Germany and they have nothing to play for, while Germany could be faced with a third place finish if they got beat, or second place if they draw.

Good luck to both sides!
Eurostar
19-06-2016
Originally Posted by ags_rule:
“I'd say this is a fair analysis. We (NI) were dire against Poland but much more positive against Ukraine; ROI were great against Sweden and should have won, but they were poor against Belgium and this showed.

I think both teams are very similar in quality tbh. ROI are stronger going forward but I'd say we're better defensively.

Both sides have a real uphill battle to get anything from their final game but I'd say ROI stand a better chance - Italy are a weaker team than Germany and they have nothing to play for, while Germany could be faced with a third place finish if they got beat, or second place if they draw.

Good luck to both sides!”

Yes, the Republic have two points less than NI but paradoxically have a better chance of going through. NI will have to give a superhuman effort to get even a point off the Germans whereas a win over Italy is a possibility for the ROI.

Fingers crossed both teams play well in their last games and at least have their pride intact at full time
ags_rule
19-06-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“Yes, the Republic have two points less than NI but paradoxically have a better chance of going through.”

Hmmm I should clarify that I wouldn't say ROI have a better chance of going through - I think they're more likely to beat the Italians than we are to get anything off the Germans, but neither are particularly likely.

The way the groups are looking at the minute it looks as though 3 points very well may be enough to go through, hence why even if Germany beat us (as long as they don't trounce us), it is still more likely than not that we will have made it through to the knock-out rounds.

Presuming Germany beat us, a combination of any two permutations from these groups will still see us go through:

Group A - Rom/Alb draw, or an Albanian victory by less than a two-goal margin
Group B - England beat Slovakia by a bigger margin than Germany beat us and either Wales beat Russia, or Russia beat Wales by a bigger margin than Germany against us
Group D - Turkey beat Czech Republic by less than four goals; or a draw
Group E - Italy beat or draw Ireland and Belgium beat or draw with Sweden; or Italy beat/draw with Ireland and Sweden trounce Belgium
Group F - Hungary beat Portugal and Iceland/Austria draw

I have probably overlooked some others as well. But as you can see, our situation is far more favourable than ROI, who MUST beat Italy - you don't have any other way to progress.
Eurostar
20-06-2016
Originally Posted by ags_rule:
“Hmmm I should clarify that I wouldn't say ROI have a better chance of going through - I think they're more likely to beat the Italians than we are to get anything off the Germans, but neither are particularly likely.

The way the groups are looking at the minute it looks as though 3 points very well may be enough to go through, hence why even if Germany beat us (as long as they don't trounce us), it is still more likely than not that we will have made it through to the knock-out rounds.

Presuming Germany beat us, a combination of any two permutations from these groups will still see us go through:

Group A - Rom/Alb draw, or an Albanian victory by less than a two-goal margin
Group B - England beat Slovakia by a bigger margin than Germany beat us and either Wales beat Russia, or Russia beat Wales by a bigger margin than Germany against us
Group D - Turkey beat Czech Republic by less than four goals; or a draw
Group E - Italy beat or draw Ireland and Belgium beat or draw with Sweden; or Italy beat/draw with Ireland and Sweden trounce Belgium
Group F - Hungary beat Portugal and Iceland/Austria draw

I have probably overlooked some others as well. But as you can see, our situation is far more favourable than ROI, who MUST beat Italy - you don't have any other way to progress.”

On the other hand, it's starting to look like a straightforward win for the ROI of any description over Italy will send them through : very tricky but doable nonetheless.

The situation re goal difference for NI is interesting and poses a dilemma for Michael O'Neill. Does he try to simply contain Germany or set up his team to try and score goals against them : either one has its risks.
DUNDEEBOY
20-06-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“On the other hand, it's starting to look like a straightforward win for the ROI of any description over Italy will send them through : very tricky but doable nonetheless.

The situation re goal difference for NI is interesting and poses a dilemma for Michael O'Neill. Does he try to simply contain Germany or set up his team to try and score goals against them : either one has its risks.”

Yes a win will do it without question , anything less and its overs so you don't have to worry about the maths.I think be interesting if Italy seem up for it, France only needed a point tonight and it definitely showed.

Northern Ireland will know exactly what they need to stay top of the best of rest by time of game as staying there will put them through with three groups to follow
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