Been looking at the permutations and as I understand it

1- Win tonight and the odds are we face Albania or Northen Ireland or possibly Croatia/ Czech Republic or Turkey. Game will be Saturday 5pm

2- Draw tonight finish second if Wales win and face Portugal/Iceland/Austria/Hungary. Means a extra two days rest as this game will be played 8pm Monday

3- Lose tonight and a Wales/Russia win with a heavy goal difference swing will mean 3rd and it will probably be Germany/Poland on Sunday 5pm.

What would be your preferred outcome for the result.

I want England to lose.

Tough one. Depends how the Wales game is going, really! But ideally I want both my lot (Wales) and England in the top two, Slovakia to take their chances in third place and Russia to go home.

eta Guess that means I want a Wales win and an England draw, doesn't it, thinking it through!

Or just a England win and Wales draw.

In which case England would face Albania/Northen Ireland or Group D third place. Wales would face second in group F ok Portugal wouldn't be so good but you would fancy there chances against the other 3 teams in that group.

Yep, I'd take that in a heartbeat.

Assuming they reach the final, If England top the group, their games would be:

25/06 4 Clear days in between matches
01/07 5 Clear days in between matches Likely winner Group F
06/07 4 Clear days in between matches Probably Spain
10/07 3 Clear days in between matches

If they finish second

27/06 6 Clear days in between matches
02/07 4 Clear days in between matches Likely France
07/07 4 Clear days in between matches Probably Germany or Italy
10/07 2 Clear days in between matches

I'll take topping the group please.

Looks like more winnable games, and the games are spaced out better, with the extra day before the final.


Finishing third in the group could be one of three different routes (can't be the team that plays the winner of our group). Too many permutations to try to work out

Looking at that ( hadn't looked beyond the last 16 we really should be going for the win tonight.

They should probably be going for the win in every match regardless, that being the point of the sport and all.

I'm yeah I mean The last five minutes of Sweeden Denmark euro 2004 or Germany Austria in the World Cup. Yep every team should go out and chase the win even though another result would guarantee qualification

Love the logic

If it's a 1-1 with a couple of minutes to go and the other match won't make a difference then yeah, just let the game play out. But people tend to overthink these permutations in my opinion. The team should just go out without any of that in their mind and try to produce their best attacking football as they did towards the end of the Wales match. Faffing around trying to play for a draw can lead all sorts of disasters. Go out and get the business done on your own end and then start wondering about who finishes where and who you would have to play if Northern Ireland pick up 3 yellow cards tomorrow or whatever.

Put it this way if Russia are 2-3 mill up against Wales and England are legal do you think either side will bust a gut to score in this scenario England will be top Slovakia Second Russia third.

Slovakia go forward trying to get the winner England catch them on the counter Slovakia home

Still think every team should go out to win

I am rooting for a home nation double win.

England win

Obviously you want to win the group.

The one bad scenario if they do win the group would be would be ending up with Croatia. I think it's fairly likely that Croatia will come third in that group. Czech Rep get to play a poor Turkey team while Croatia have to play Spain and last I heard Modric is set to miss the game with injury. Because Czech Rep only lost 1-0 to Spain and Croatia only beat Turkey 1-0 it is likely that Czech Rep will have the edge on goal difference if it comes to head to head. Then Croatia would be able to bring back Modric for the 2nd round and we've seen how much better a team they are when he is in the team. England would have heir work cut out against them.

Plus you have to figure in the toxic off field situation if you are playing Croatia and lord knows England don't need anymore trouble in that regard.

I have no idea how they work out which of the three possible third place teams the winner of Group B plays but I hope that the third place teams in Group A and C are first in the queue because Albania or Northern Ireland would be very good 2nd round opponents.

2nd place wouldn't be so bad as we'd face the 2nd place team in Portugal's group (who could be anyone) but be nice to get a win regardless.

As it stands NI would play France in the 2nd round - for us its most likely to be somebody from that Spain group.

As I understand it it gores in a que like system so England face the 3rd placed team of the first froup who qualifies from A/C/D

So if Albania qualify England play them. If Albania are out and N Ireland qualify then It's England vs N Ireland and if both are out its England vs Group d third place.

Apologies if I have it wrong but that's my understanding

I think it'd be weak of England to play for a draw and I think if we do, we could be in trouble. We should really be beating teams like Slovakia, but if we hang back and invite them in, they aren't such a bad team that they won't punish us.

Also, topping the group lets us play a third place team in group A C or D, so you'd have to fancy our chances there. I think England have to look past this match and go for the win, not just do the minimum amount we need to scrape through.

If we finish 2nd and end up playing Portugal and they knock us out again (probably on penalties, just to make it even worse), then I'm going to scream Worse still we hang back so much that Slovakia end up beating us and we finish third in the group and have to play one of the top teams early on... no thanks!

The Times seemed to suggest its most likely to be the 3rd place team in D...

It's also important for England to win the group because that would put them on the other side of the draw to the tough trio of France, Germany and Italy. I fancy our chances of getting to the final more if up against Spain (they don't convince me), with probably Portugal (although none of their group is that great) and Belgium.

A win of course. And a win that is clear and not fraught with tension. England needs to prove it's ability as an actual team not a luckers.

I would say they are basing it on Albania unlikely with 3 points to qualify and n Ireland losing to Germany

For purely selfish reasons I wouldn't be upset if England finish 2nd, as I have a prior engagement on Saturday which means I'd not be able to see much, if any, of the game that we'd be playing in if we win the group.

I think 3 points could do it but it's the poor goal difference that will really hurt Albania (-2) and N. Ireland (likely to concede at least a couple against Germany) so yes Czech Republic (and possibly Croatia if Spain turn them over), who should beat a poor Turkish team, is looming large.

Edit: Having said all that I think we might meet Albania. Can't see Sweden or Ireland getting more than 2 points.

A win and a clean sheet, to help NI.