Originally Posted by H of De Vil:
“I really hate it when TXF stages stuff. There is absolutely no need. They really do not learn do they!? That's when ratings start dropping again.”
What got so you so worked up this time?
Originally Posted by Fudd:
“But if ratings drop tomorrow compared to last week - and I'm sure the figure will be lower than last week with increased competition and a lack of crossover lead in - it will be down to last weekend's episodes rather than tonight's. As people continually say, people don't know what an episode will be like unless they watch it.
I just wonder whether The X Factor audience is now so fickle that one poor episode can result in a load of viewers switching off? Strictly has had it's fair share of duds, as has I'm A Celebrity, and they tend to hold up despite this. But the Syco shows, with Britain's Got Talent also being hit in live week inparticular this year, appear to have a less loyal audience nowadays with people less willing to accept one bad show. The biggest example of this is in 2014 where a well received first live show resulted in the second live show retaining it's audience. The second live show was awful which, in turn, saw the third live show record a decline - despite week one being good.”
I agree it'll be lower than last week, probably around 7.5m, although if you'd told them 2 weeks ago they'd be looking at 7.5m I'm sure they'd have taken it!
I don't think the audience is quite that fickle that one bad episode is enough to turn them off. Looking at the 2014 example you've cited, yes live show 3 saw dip, but only of 200k and by live show 5 and 6 it was actually ahead of the first 2 again. Even last year's live judges houses debacle didn't seem to do too much damage. I think the Sunday show was hit after the dire Saturday show but it didn't seem to impact future weeks (the following Saturday was down but I think that was Halloween as it bounced back the next week). I think because The X Factor gets so heavily discussed here, there's probably a tendency to read too much into individual data points as if you take a series as a whole I don't think there's a great deal of evidence that the audience is quite that fickle that one bad episode will turn them off. I didn't think last night was bad anyway, it was a fun bit of Saturday night entertainment and I swear in the early years they did episodes like that as well.
The BGT example is an interesting one. I maintain that the main issue with this year's live shows was pulling them out of half term week. If you look at the audience shares and compare them to 2012 (the other occasion it ran outside of half term, although at least that year it still got a Bank Holiday) they are quite similar, and lower than the surrounding years. Did the bad first live show have an impact? Possibly. I think when you've got a week between episodes a bad one probably won't have too much impact as long as it isn't the start of a trend. However when you're asking audiences to commit to a further 10 hours of the show across a further 5 nights, it probably will have more of an impact as people decide they can't be bothered to make that sort of commitment to it. So I do think there was an element of that to it that added to the difficulties it was going to have by moving outside of half term week.
As it happens, I think the final would have bounced back and recorded a decent figure had it not landed in a really unfortunate situation (BH Saturday, Champions League Final, hot weather) which makes me think that the disappointing live show ratings this year shouldn't have a long term impact and I think the auditions next year will bounce back again (there might be a slight dip that you get as a show ages but nothing too heavy).
I do think that they need to do something with the semifinals next year. If they insist on doing the stripped week then they need to schedule it how they did it in 2015 again, in half term week with the semis Monday-Friday and the final on the Sunday. The Sunday final did really well in 2015, plus the Champions League Final is that Saturday and they need to avoid that. I'd also look at doing something with the show itself, perhaps doing the live shows from an arena rather than a studio. With them being stripped across a week it should be affordable for them (I think Sky's Got To Dance did it so if they can BGT surely can). Cowell's been on America's Got Talent this Summer which has been doing its live shows from the Dolby Theatre in front of 3,400 people so I can see him wanting to do something like it. With Fountain Studios closing they need a new home anyway, might as well go bigger. They could maybe do with slightly fewer singers and dancers and a little more variety too, and to spread the acts a bit better. I actually thought most of the semifinals this year were pretty good, but the dire first show really set the week off on the wrong note and probably did do some damage.
”
it was just so much fun and made me laugh a few times, and that's all I want from a Saturday night show. I do hope it manages to crack 8 million again. I think it will be a touch below though at 7.8m including +1. 