Negotiations seem to be over again now.
I'd guess at:
Paul going to Channel 4
Mary, Mel and Sue on the BBC
Bake Off flopping and Paul having to turn up in any old tripe to fulfil his contracted hours.
Having said that, nothing is set in stone.
I think Mel and Sue could be good if they find the right format for them - Bake Off proved that, and they were pretty good on Light Lunch back in the day. I could see them doing well hosting a quiz or variety show, but I'd love to see them back to straight comedy. They always wrote hilarious stuff for French and Saunders, so a sketch show could do well for them.
Sue seems to have done well with Insert Name Here, which is coming back for a 2nd series, and "Now You See It" has been a consistent rater with Mel narrating.
I think, like everyone else said, Mary will do well on primetime BBC1. She'll definitely draw viewers in because she has such a lovely personality and her recipes are genuinely good and she's very smart. She's prime BBC1 material really, taps into a lot of demographics. I could see her hosting 3 shows in the run up to Christmas (maybe formatted like Starters, Christmas Dinner, Christmas Pudding) showing you how to make different versions of the three dishes. That could be a monster rating if they scheduled it right in the week leading up to Christmas when people will have time to go out and buy the ingredients.