If that's there target, understand.

X Factor probably isn't in the A List of entertainment shows any more. That list is now just BGT, Strictly and I'm a Celebrity (it was also Bake Off but can't see it staying there on C4). X Factor is now in the B List along with Saturday Night Takeaway, The Apprentice and maybe The Voice (currently a bit of an unknown with the channel change). The C List then consists of the cheaper but reliable shows like Pointless Celebrities, Who Dares Wins, Ninja Warrior etc.

When a show is as big and boisterous and most importantly, as polarising as The X Factor was at its peak, the fall will always be harder. The 3 A list shows I mentioned were never as controversial, as dominant (in media coverage) or as divisive as XF was, hence why they've managed to hold pretty close to their peaks and remain consistent. They don't attract the same level of dislike as X Factor attracts from certain quarters.

I do think the show itself could have done more. Last year's series was clearly a huge error. The show managed to slow the declines and the 2013 and 2014 series held up reasonably well. It was in a decent enough place after the sharp falls of 2011 and 2012 and could have held there, but the 2015 series was a train wreck that has cost them. This year has been a vast improvement, but the numbers could still be better (as we saw with the early episodes). I think a combination of the choice of acts and general live show format fatigue has caused the numbers to dip. Could they cut the number of live shows? Maybe, but they tried that last year and the fans didn't like it.

Sorry, does not compute. What do you mean?

XF skews young, advertisers like young audiences. On that basis if it's outperforming SCD on 16-34 and around equal on 35-44, XF is a more attractive show even if the final overnight numbers are XF at 7m and SCD at 11m.

For ITV, they'd prefer to have XF than SCD on that basis, even with a 4m gulf.

It's why ITV would prefer EE to Corrie, as it skews younger. £££

I didn't mention ITV stars, I meant less BBC stars in general. I'm A Celeb manage to get a good mix, and not just TV stars.

So that's 3 out of 15 then. It's also tradition to have an EastEnders and Breakfast person.

Georgia May Foote. She didn't quit Corrie to go on SCD though

She was sacked and then could go on. The ban is true though, and I think it makes sense. Why let your popular stars go on a rivals show?

If Brooke Vincent is in then she's an ITV star.

Louise Redknapp has done nothing for 20 years.
Anastacia is a legit star who controversially stayed in the show.
Will is quite big but he quit after abuse from Len.
Rutherford is a gold medalist from 2012 who is hardly a major name.
Ed Balls is quite famous and Leslie Joseph is.
That's pretty much yer lot.

IAC has Vorderman who is as famous as any Strictly dancer from a UK position. Obviously Ana is more famous globally. Farage would be easily more famous than any of them but I don't believe he's entering.

How many of Strictly's celebrities would have guested on Norton or Ross last year? They're more One Show or Loose Woman standards.

The same applies to IAC but it's obvious why major celebrities don't want to eat a sheep's eyeball. That's why you get the likes of Johnny Lydon and Shaun Ryder in the fake jungle - bigger music icons than last year's Strictly champion (no idea what his name is, he's forgotten like previous winners). I was amazed someone like Michael Burke went on it.

Much of IAC is a fraud. Much of SCD is a fraud. Much of XF is a fraud. Much of Apprentice is a fraud. Much of BGT is a fraud. Much of Big Brother is a fraud. Much of The Voice I bet is a fraud.

They're all the same. They're largely watched by the same people and covered by the same websites. And they all tend to despised by the same people.

I imagine most people who watch one of the above watch one or two others. You can throw GBBO in there. And I know many people who, given the chance to watch any of them, would opt to instead paint a wall so that they could watch it dry.

2015:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcone/programm...don/2015/10/31
(Doctor Who and Lottery taking up sixty minutes between them.)

2016:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcone/programm...don/2016/10/29
(Lottery taking up fifty minutes. No Doctor Who.) Late News beginning five minutes earlier, and Strictly ending five minutes later to compensate for there being ten fewer minutes of programming between end of Strictly and beginning of late news.

I get the feeling that I might have underestimated the interest in Planet Earth 2. Could get high 6/low 7m tonight based on chatter I've seen on Twitter. I also heard two people talking about it in a shop today. One of them said they'd watch Planet Earth 2 first then X Factor on +1.

That would suck pretty hard and would make no sense from a commercial POV. You've lost 4 or 5 shows and itv would lose out in every way.

Now I agree with the idea of starting the auditions in mid October but I'd run the live shows through December and January. SNT would then fill the Sept/Oct seven weeks.

Well since ITV has banned their stars from going on SCD then it's hardly a surprise
that they have BBC faces on it........

I think this will be a surprise hit too, it'll have a big lead-in from the Strictly results show and it is billed as being one of the most technically advanced shows ever (not up on my technical terms but its been filmed in super super super dooper HD ) perfect cold, Sunday evening viewing.

Maybe not in your household but I knew all of them before the show and nobody is the brother of the actually famous one or a sportsperson that nobody had ever heard of until this year's Olympics and still probably couldn't pick out from a team photo nor are there reality show 'stars'. Besides there isn't Celebrity in whacking great letters in the title. Surely that alone entitles the viewers to expect something a little more than they're getting?

Why would you not record XF and then watch it in HD and without adverts? Better picture. Better sound. Fast forward the adverts and recaps.

People make me sad.

On the topic of The X Factor live shows, here is a list of the retention the live shows have had from the pre-recorded shows over the past few years.

2011: 103%
2012: 102%
2013: 95%
2014: 94%*
2015: 93%
2016: 86% (so far)

*I ignored the two Friday shows for 2014 as no other series had them and they skew the figures.

So for example in 2011 the live shows averaged 103% of the pre-recorded average (so slight growth). This year the live shows (so far) have retained 86% of the pre-recorded average.

What is clear is a downward trend. I think that is down to a couple of factors: mainly that the live show format isn't new, fresh or exciting to the audience any more. They've been done before and so many other shows have followed the same format which means the format has been overexposed. Whereas the early stages of XF are relatively unique to XF, the live show format isn't really, which doesn't help. Also, at the auditions you get new contestants in each episode, which is more interesting for the audience than watching the same people every week, which if you aren't a fan of any of the contestants becomes tedious.

Plus as these shows age the audience becomes more casual and less willing to invest significant amounts of time into the show, which is fine for the auditions which lend themselves fairly well to 'dip in dip out' viewing, but less well for the live shows which require the audience to invest in the acts, which they aren't as willing to do. Plus the audition shows are much shorter, just 1 hour or so per self-contained episode, whereas the live shows run across up to (and occasionally over) 3 hours per week which casual viewers just aren't prepared to commit to. It's probably also why the Sunday audition shows rate lower than the Saturday ones (when they didn't in the past) as people have watched the Saturday show and don't particularly feel the need for another instalment the following night. So a combination of the format and running time are I think why the live shows don't hold up as well as the auditions.

We've seen something similar happen on BGT and, of course, The Voice. I think the live weekly elimination format isn't the draw it used to be. Strictly is a bit different as it doesn't have audition shows, it's a different format in that regard. Plus the older audience is normally a bit more loyal.

This year's retention does seem to have dipped more than the trend - I'd expect it to pick up slightly by the end of the series as the final isn't in there yet, but perhaps the contestant choices caused it to lose an additional ~5% of the audience this year. BGT and The Voice also saw larger drops through the series this year though. I think in BGT's case it was the move away from half term and it was a particularly weak series of The Voice, but even so it is clear that this is a trend across these shows and I'm not sure what the producers can do to stop it.

Then you're in a small minority as I doubt many know Hollyoaks actors.

Some of the celebrities get to become gold dancers. You know they have when you hear non-regular viewers asking which one is the celebrity and which is the dancer.

I think Planet Earth 2 is going to be big tonight. Should comfortably beat The X Factor. The first series back in 2006 was massive (consolidated over 9 million for the first block of episodes) and it has a huge lead-in from Strictly. I don't think X Factor's results show is a major draw any more and it will take a hit tonight.

Could see Planet Earth over 7 million and X Factor below 6 million.

Going by olympic viewing figures I'd say he's very well known. Super Saturday and all that.

That lot has far more fame between them, excluding all the other celebs, than IAC lot.

You've named one IAC person and 6 Strictly, which proves my point.

And you don't get any A list celebs who appear on Norton going on celeb competitions because they don't need to and probably don't have the time.

Or an obscure comedian, and a dancer who ironically found fame through Strictly itself.

@Score - interesting analysis. If ratings grow then that'll clearly reduce the loss and, has been mentioned by others today, there's a greater clash this year.

Next week is a big test for it.

Joey Essex on Off Their Rockers tonight! How's that H of de Vil?

The Corrie stars and Rylan on Next Great Magician.

Wonder who's on XF later?

The Sun reckon they've got this year's I'm a Celebrity lineup in full:

Carol Vorderman
Scarlett Moffatt
Lisa Snowdon
Ola Jordan
Sam Quek

Danny Baker
Larry Lamb
Joel Dommett
Martin Roberts
Adam Thomas
Wayne Bridge
Jordan Banjo

Not a stellar lineup but some decent names. It doesn't particularly matter, of course. No one had heard of Lady Colin Campbell last year and she was the talk of the show within 24 hours of it airing. The personalities are key.

Also not sure if that lineup will be entirely correct as there are 7 men and 5 women and I'd expect them to have an even balance. Looks fairly accurate though.

Super Saturday was hardly about Rutherford. On that basis the hockey woman is a star because that got 10m viewers.

I've not named others since I don't know for sure who is in. I've already posted that the rumoured names are hardly household names but that applies to both shows.

Even Hermione is interested! Saw this in my Twitter timeline.

Emma Watson (@EmWatson) tweeted at 6:20 p.m. on Sun, Nov 06, 2016:
I'm home and really geeking out over this - #PlanetEarth2 starts TONIGHT at 8pm on @BBCOne & 9pm on BBC Earth Nordics. Can't wait!
(https://twitter.com/EmWatson/status/...924453377?s=09)