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The Ratings Thread (Part 68)


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Old 09-11-2016, 19:33
wizzywick
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So... opinion pollsters have got a third consecutive major political vote wrong after the last UK General Election and Brexit. And it's not as if they were just slightly out either, but majorly so in all three cases!

Completely different kettle of fish TV viewing patterns of course, but does it make you question BARB's methodologies a little bit? The idea that such a small sample relatively speaking can really give an accurate picture of popularity across a whole nation?

Obviously BARB isn't measuring what its users intend to watch, but what they actually do watch, which is a plus. However you still have to trust that they have the right mix of demographics on their panel, and that the users in question record their viewing accurately.

It strikes me in this day and age of practically everything being connected to the internet that we are not too far away from a better solution to TV data measurement at least being possible, and who knows what results such a system might throw up compared to the rather old fashioned BARB model.
I think you have written a fantastic, thought provoking post. It certainly beggars the question about BARB's reliability.
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Old 09-11-2016, 19:54
A.D.P
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So... opinion pollsters have got a third consecutive major political vote wrong after the last UK General Election and Brexit. And it's not as if they were just slightly out either, but majorly so in all three cases!

Completely different kettle of fish TV viewing patterns of course, but does it make you question BARB's methodologies a little bit? The idea that such a small sample relatively speaking can really give an accurate picture of popularity across a whole nation?

Obviously BARB isn't measuring what its users intend to watch, but what they actually do watch, which is a plus. However you still have to trust that they have the right mix of demographics on their panel, and that the users in question record their viewing accurately.

It strikes me in this day and age of practically everything being connected to the internet that we are not too far away from a better solution to TV data measurement at least being possible, and who knows what results such a system might throw up compared to the rather old fashioned BARB model.
I think you have written a fantastic, thought provoking post. It certainly beggars the question about BARB's reliability.
Clever and well written posts with good comments.

One difference, for Brexit, a lot of people didn't want to admit liking Farage, or connotations of immigration as it's then taken over by topics. So an embarrassment Factor, and they lied in polling. Trump the same, a percentage we're talking off camera in the last few weeks, that they would vote Trump but not admit it on camera, as again embarrassed.

Both votes both polls were very very close, a few percentage points made a difference. So the polls were actually close to the truth, a last minute swing or the odd e mail investigation could swing it.

With TV people are less embrassed to say what they watch and so it should be actuate. We see things like GBBO is popular live and on catch up, so it's consistent. We see social media often tie in with TV shows.

Perfect? No, close - Yes. We can improve TV monitoring yes, but it isn't inaccurate.
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Old 09-11-2016, 20:10
Aaron_2015
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Perfect? No, close - Yes. We can improve TV monitoring yes, but it isn't inaccurate.
Well we don't exactly know how accurate it is because we've never seen ratings from an alternative system which could be more/less accurate.

I don't see how 20,000 BARB boxes can deliver very accurate results myself.
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Old 09-11-2016, 20:39
iaindb
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So... opinion pollsters have got a third consecutive major political vote wrong after the last UK General Election and Brexit. And it's not as if they were just slightly out either, but majorly so in all three cases!

Completely different kettle of fish TV viewing patterns of course, but does it make you question BARB's methodologies a little bit? The idea that such a small sample relatively speaking can really give an accurate picture of popularity across a whole nation?

Obviously BARB isn't measuring what its users intend to watch, but what they actually do watch, which is a plus. However you still have to trust that they have the right mix of demographics on their panel, and that the users in question record their viewing accurately.

It strikes me in this day and age of practically everything being connected to the internet that we are not too far away from a better solution to TV data measurement at least being possible, and who knows what results such a system might throw up compared to the rather old fashioned BARB model.
BIB - which means that the BARB system is the equivalent of an Exit Poll and recent exit polls have been pretty accurate. The last one was pretty close to giving David Cameron the overall majority he won.

For BARB to be like the rubbishy polls, they would have to calculate the ratings based on asking people beforehand what they were planning to watch which would be silly because all sorts of things could happen to make people change their intentions.
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Old 09-11-2016, 20:40
sunbeam007
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It's one ep of Grand Designs - Hardly "clearing the schedule". I think housebuilding can wait a week
I was including the daytime schedule.
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Old 09-11-2016, 20:58
iaindb
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Why? So half the viewers miss it being on an hour earlier than billed?
Fortunately Channel 4+1 is on hand to allow any viewers that are caught out to watch The Last Leg at its scheduled 10pm time.

I notice they weren't brave enough to drop Pointless though.

They ran with 4 hours of necessary public service news coverage/over the top overkill (delete as appropriate) but it had to end just in time for Pointless, they couldn't let The Chase have a clear run!
I can just imagine you stamping your foot and going "waah!" when you typed this comment.

Nasty horrible BBC picking on sweet innocent ITV.
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Old 09-11-2016, 21:15
derek500
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Well we don't exactly know how accurate it is because we've never seen ratings from an alternative system which could be more/less accurate.

I don't see how 20,000 BARB boxes can deliver very accurate results myself.
It's only 5,100. Sky, like Netflix and Amazon aren't going to let their data taken from 7+m boxes out into the public domain for commercial reasons.

I expect they're more than happy to use BARB (who they're shareholders of) to set advertising rates as that's a tiny part of their income.
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Old 09-11-2016, 21:16
Andy23
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Fortunately Channel 4+1 is on hand to allow any viewers that are caught out to watch The Last Leg at its scheduled 10pm time.

I can just imagine you stamping your foot and going "waah!" when you typed this comment.

Nasty horrible BBC picking on sweet innocent ITV.
Not really, The Chase is in the lead at the moment anyway, not that I dislike Pointless.

Regarding Barb, I've had doubts on its accuracy and small sample size for years. I can't see people operating the system accurately.

Did the sample size increase when digital TV began, as it must be really inaccurate for the smaller channels, where only one or two Barb panel members may be watching.
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Old 09-11-2016, 21:16
A.D.P
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Well we don't exactly know how accurate it is because we've never seen ratings from an alternative system which could be more/less accurate.

I don't see how 20,000 BARB boxes can deliver very accurate results myself.
A sample that's scaled up. All polling and research is based on that.
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Old 09-11-2016, 21:18
iaindb
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My mum didn't watch This Time Next Year last week because she didn't fancy it. But this week it was on the TV before we could switch to anything else (usually Challenge) so she ended up watching it and enjoying it and so she will probably watch the rest of the series. So maybe its ratings will increase a little bit as it goes on through word of mouth or people accidentally stumbling on it (next week it's sandwiched between Corrie and I'm A Celebrity).

Not my cup of tea, but I can see a decent and original format there and one that ITV will be able to sell to quite a few foreign countries. (The American version has Donald Trump tell the presenter "This time next year I'm going to be the President of America". and the presenter crying more than Davina when it comes true)
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Old 09-11-2016, 21:20
Fudd
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My mum didn't watch This Time Next Year last week because she didn't fancy it. But this week it was on the TV before we could switch to anything else (usually Challenge) so she ended up watching it and enjoying it and so she will probably watch the rest of the series. So maybe its ratings will increase a little bit as it goes on through word of mouth or people accidentally stumbling on it (next week it's sandwiched between Corrie and I'm A Celebrity).

Not my cup of tea, but I can see a decent and original format there and one that ITV will be able to sell to quite a few foreign countries. (The American version has Donald Trump tell the presenter "This time next year I'm going to be the President of America". and the presenter crying more than Davina when it comes true)
Be fair, wasn't she crying with laughter at him this time last year?
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Old 09-11-2016, 22:10
H of De Vil
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My mum didn't watch This Time Next Year last week because she didn't fancy it. But this week it was on the TV before we could switch to anything else (usually Challenge) so she ended up watching it and enjoying it and so she will probably watch the rest of the series. So maybe its ratings will increase a little bit as it goes on through word of mouth or people accidentally stumbling on it (next week it's sandwiched between Corrie and I'm A Celebrity).

Not my cup of tea, but I can see a decent and original format there and one that ITV will be able to sell to quite a few foreign countries. (The American version has Donald Trump tell the presenter "This time next year I'm going to be the President of America". and the presenter crying more than Davina when it comes true)

I think it'll drop a bit this week to 3.5m, but rally again next week to 4m.

I notice at the end they advertised for applying for series 2
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Old 09-11-2016, 22:16
wildangel
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It's only 5,100. Sky, like Netflix and Amazon aren't going to let their data taken from 7+m boxes out into the public domain for commercial reasons.

I expect they're more than happy to use BARB (who they're shareholders of) to set advertising rates as that's a tiny part of their income.
Ouch. That's hit the sore spot :

Dancc is right in that tech means Smart TVs* could measure what someone's watching more reliably than the Barb polling. But then, as long as some folk watch on regular telly (not connected to the cyberstate) you still won't get a reliable figure.

(*other viewing methods are available)

[ Of course, the Beeb also has the AI (Appreciation Index) though I've only rarely seen those reported beyond Who circles. Would be fascinating to see how those play out with some of the rating big hitters and non-starters ]
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Old 09-11-2016, 22:50
derek500
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Did the sample size increase when digital TV began, as it must be really inaccurate for the smaller channels, where only one or two Barb panel members may be watching.
The live cricket on BT Sport the other night peaked at 12,000. Two BARBistas.
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Old 09-11-2016, 23:17
sunbeam007
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The live cricket on BT Sport the other night peaked at 12,000. Two BARBistas.
And the second Test at Hobart is likely to be a washout. The ECB will be keeping a close eye on these ratings.
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Old 10-11-2016, 00:26
H of De Vil
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I thought seeing as we've had a drama list for BBC1, I'd post a list of dramas still to come on ITV.

2016
3x60 In Plain Sight
1x90 Grantchester
1x120 Maigret
3x60 Tina & Bobby

2017
8x60 Broadchurch
6x60 Unforgotten
6x60 The Durrells
6x60 The Good Karma Hospital
6x60 Prime Suspect 1973
8x60 The Halcyon
6x60 The Loch
4x60 Innocent
4x120 Vera
4x120 Endeavour
2x120 Maigret
6x60 Grantchester
8x60 + 1x120 Victoria
6x60 Fearless
4x60 Trauma
6x120 Midsomer Murders
8x60 Cold Feet
6x60 Liar
8x60 Marcella
4x60 Safe House
18x60 Lethal Weapon

2018
6x60 Girlfriends
8x60 White Dragon
6x60 Next of Kin
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Old 10-11-2016, 00:48
sunbeam007
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I thought seeing as we've had a drama list for BBC1, I'd post a list of dramas still to come on ITV.

2016
3x60 In Plain Sight
1x90 Grantchester
1x120 Maigret
3x60 Tina & Bobby

2017
8x60 Broadchurch
6x60 Unforgotten
6x60 The Durrells
6x60 The Good Karma Hospital
6x60 Prime Suspect 1973
8x60 The Halcyon
6x60 The Loch
4x60 Innocent
4x120 Vera
4x120 Endeavour
2x120 Maigret
6x60 Grantchester
8x60 + 1x120 Victoria
6x60 Fearless
4x60 Trauma
6x120 Midsomer Murders
8x60 Cold Feet
6x60 Liar
8x60 Marcella
4x60 Safe House
18x60 Lethal Weapon

2018
6x60 Girlfriends
8x60 White Dragon
6x60 Next of Kin
Excellent, thanks. I hope I screenshotted the BBC one as I'd like them next to each other.

I make that 117 episodes excluding Lethal Weapon. So roughly 2.5 episodes per week. If that boost it a fair bit it could mean 3 per week which I guess would be Sunday, Monday and maybe Wednesday.

Lethal Weapon is the other show that gets it to 3 per week. I can't see where that goes as I don't believe UK terrestrial viewers willing to watch a US drama. Channel5 used to own a series link of mine for Tuesdays at 9 for CSI. Three million would be big for ITV on a Tuesday.
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Old 10-11-2016, 08:44
Jokanovic
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And the second Test at Hobart is likely to be a washout. The ECB will be keeping a close eye on these ratings.
At this stage they will be more keen to see how they cover it.

They will want BT to make a success of cricket and give Sky some bidding competition. Can only benefit the ECB. BT need more summer sport so cricket looks an obvious target.

Ratings will be studied more when they have The Ashes next Summer I would of thought.
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Old 10-11-2016, 09:37
lewiep93
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Overnights.tv ‏@overnightstv 5s5 seconds ago
#blackandbritish, new BBC history series with @DavidOlusoga, began with 1m/4.9% at 9pm on BBC2 http://www.overnights.tv
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Old 10-11-2016, 09:45
H of De Vil
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Excellent, thanks. I hope I screenshotted the BBC one as I'd like them next to each other.

I make that 117 episodes excluding Lethal Weapon. So roughly 2.5 episodes per week. If that boost it a fair bit it could mean 3 per week which I guess would be Sunday, Monday and maybe Wednesday.

Lethal Weapon is the other show that gets it to 3 per week. I can't see where that goes as I don't believe UK terrestrial viewers willing to watch a US drama. Channel5 used to own a series link of mine for Tuesdays at 9 for CSI. Three million would be big for ITV on a Tuesday.

+1

7x60 Doc Martin
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Old 10-11-2016, 09:46
Ray Tings
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The Missing: 5.21m (24.7%)
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Old 10-11-2016, 09:48
Ray Tings
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#TheLastLeg US Election Special averaged 2.1m last night, making Channel 4 the most watched commercial channel at 9pm. Up +38% on slot avg
Channel 4 Press@C4Press
1.84m (9.1%) excluding +1
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Old 10-11-2016, 09:48
Score
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This Time Next Year got 2.69m (12.6%) excluding HD and +1. Will be around 3.2-3.5m all in I guess. Not too bad but a disappointing week on week drop. It might pick up a bit next week with I'm a Celebrity on after it. I imagine last night's 9pm documentary was very low.

Watchdog also dipped week on week, was below 4.00m. MasterChef: The Professionals getting 2.54m (11.9%) might have caused those 8pm dips on BBC1/ITV.
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Old 10-11-2016, 09:48
lewiep93
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Channel 4 Press ‏@C4Press 2m2 minutes ago
#TheLastLeg US Election Special averaged 2.1m last night, making Channel 4 the most watched commercial channel at 9pm. Up +38% on slot avg
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Old 10-11-2016, 09:49
H of De Vil
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The Missing: 5.21m (24.7%)
The Missing got a nice boost. I suspect some of that might be down to ITV's 9pm factual offering.

I've yet to get past Ep1 of The Missing. Still got them all stacking up.

EDIT: Yes ITV was below 2m at 9pm. I imagine about 1.5m.
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