The official announcement that Paul was leaving months ago was the biggest indicator that he was gonna be the one to die [no matter what misdirections official media sprouted 'i.e. X is here til X month'].
But also because common sense would lead one to realising that a soap isn't gonna kill a big star [the son of one the biggest soap stars moreover] in a quick and random plot like this.
I know the digital age makes it far harder to keep things secret, but if it's not staff or fans leaking stuff, then it's the soaps themselves advertising spoilers and character departures so freely month ahead of time too that lessen the impact of these types of plots.
Oh well. At least we have the curious case of 'Where's Ben?' leftover I guess.