On the betfair exchange (which is essentially a stock market for bettors where it works like an actual market where bettors can either bet for or against a person so the market determines the odds) Bear has gone from about 2.20 (decimal odds) to a 1.48 shot as of right now , in other words from a roughly 45% chance to a 65% chance since last night.

Huge money now going on Bear, either going to be alot of egg on faces or Bear will win by quite a bit here.

The word's probably out he's got an insurmountable lead.

Depends on whether or not you think it's been a fair race.

Im not so sure its that clear cut either - if the Ricky vote materialises then i think it could be close , thing is the consolidated anti Bear vote only consists of supporters of Ricky Frankie Renne and Aubrey. Marnie voters are still going to vote Marnie and will not shift to Ricky. And the Frankie/Renne/Aubrey vote isnt going to be that big to make a significant diference , and thats assuming consolidating the anti Bear vote all on Ricky actually happens , which it wont.
So can Ricky beat Bear ? Probably not but its possible.