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Strictly Stats 2016 |
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#101 |
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: The Twitterverse
Posts: 39,530
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Quote:
Just quoting this to say I totally called the dance off based on stats.
This was posted before the spoiler I knew being a stats geek would pay off one day. ![]() Also very interesting to see that you predicted the bottom two just from stats. I think you should try and do the same this week to save us all waiting up for the spoiler
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#102 |
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Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 3,209
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Quote:
I thought the same about Ore but ballrooms never do brilliantly and he actually has the highest viewed Ballroom of the week.
Ballroom only topped the views 3 times last year (Jays Tango, Waltz and American Smooth) This year Danny's VW is the only BR that topped. However week 2 the top 3 viewed dances were Ballroom (Danny Louise Laura) which is unheard of (in these recent couple of years of stats counting) so either vvv strong BR or VVV weak Latin week. Another thing to remember is YT is how much people like rewatching (so a sign of a dedicated fan base) if you scroll up and look at likes and shares for Twitter and FB Ore is doing loads better (top 3)and these are 1 per account. So take Danny for example Versus Ore: Danny is 2nd most viewed so looks to be doing much better but on Likes and shares, Ore beat him. So what we know is Danny has built up the fanbase. Ore's dance was either clearly well liked but he hasn't built up the fanbase that Danny has, or people really liked his dance but not in a wow I have to watch it again way. I do think He and Jo need to smash it this week to get that journey capturing fanbase though. I am a mere novice, clearly, when it comes to view-stats ![]() *heads off to read more of the thread... |
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#103 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Quote:
Great work in this thread to you and the other stats providers. It all makes for a very interesting read.
![]() Also very interesting to see that you predicted the bottom two just from stats. I think you should try and do the same this week to save us all waiting up for the spoiler ![]() I only called Melvin right on stats for week 1. Anastacia does have a fanbase who were maybe caught off guard week one as stats never looked like she'd be going on the Cha Cha. Funny fact. When I read the spoiler onSaturday I was gobsmacked, then came to look at the stats and saw I'd predicted it. That's what I like about Stats, you take your own biases out and those of the forum and just see what people out there in the real world are reacting to. |
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#104 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: 🍷 🎼 ☔
Posts: 10,117
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Quote:
I'll try!
I only called Melvin right on stats for week 1. Anastacia does have a fanbase who were maybe caught off guard week one as stats never looked like she'd be going on the Cha Cha. Funny fact. When I read the spoiler onSaturday I was gobsmacked, then came to look at the stats and saw I'd predicted it. That's what I like about Stats, you take your own biases out and those of the forum and just see what people out there in the real world are reacting to. |
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#105 |
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,213
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Quote:
I thought the same about Ore but ballrooms never do brilliantly and he actually has the highest viewed Ballroom of the week.
Ballroom only topped the views 3 times last year (Jays Tango, Waltz and American Smooth) This year Danny's VW is the only BR that topped. However week 2 the top 3 viewed dances were Ballroom (Danny Louise Laura) which is unheard of (in these recent couple of years of stats counting) so either vvv strong BR or VVV weak Latin week. Another thing to remember is YT is how much people like rewatching (so a sign of a dedicated fan base) if you scroll up and look at likes and shares for Twitter and FB Ore is doing loads better (top 3)and these are 1 per account. So take Danny for example Versus Ore: Danny is 2nd most viewed so looks to be doing much better but on Likes and shares, Ore beat him. So what we know is Danny has built up the fanbase. Ore's dance was either clearly well liked but he hasn't built up the fanbase that Danny has, or people really liked his dance but not in a wow I have to watch it again way. I do think He and Jo need to smash it this week to get that journey capturing fanbase though. Also, regarding YT views, I liked to use the views per like ratio. That is what was even more remarkable about Jay And Aliona last year, not only topping the views almost every week, but having the top 2 conversion. The reason behind is that you can view a video many times (though the running theory is that only the first 5 times count) but only like the video once. So having high views and high likes means a lot of people are invested, rather than a small group of fanatics that keep watching (which also can be the case). Regarding Danny, I think he is consistently being second most watch every week. Quote:
Plus you are working from statistically significant numbers. Rather than a few hundred DS voters on a poll.
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#106 |
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,213
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After doing the numbers extensively last year, I think Youtube was by far the most accurate in terms of predicting the winner.
Facebook and Twitter algorithms (specially this year as Twitter has changed) makes them less real, as they are not real direct comparisons, as a still or a video will appear on your timeline so its easy to watch or like, or share. |
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#107 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Top 10 YT vids of the series so far:
1: Judge Rinder and Oksana - Cha Cha Cha Week 1 - 529,965 views(already in top 5 all time SCD channel only) 2: Danny and Oti - Cha Cha Cha - Week 1 - 240642 3: Ed and Katya - Charleston - Week 2 - 117,395 4: Claudia and AJ - Charleston - Week 3 - 101,321 5. Danny and Oti - Paso - Week 3 - 92,902 6. Ed and Katya - Samba - Week 3- 89,183 7: Louise and Kevin - Jive - Week 2 86,390 8: Will and Karen - Salsa - Week 3 - 84,444 9: Danny and Oti - VW - Week 2 - 83,758 10: Greg and Natalie - Jive - Week 1 - 83277 Danny and Ed are the only contestants with more than one appearance in the top 10. |
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#108 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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YT Updates with 6 days viewings and shuffled into correct order of most viewed:
1.Claudia and AJ - 18,342 | 101,321 2. Danny and Oti - 19,063 |93,025 3. Ed and Katya - 9368 |89,278 4. Will and Karen - 9519 |84,444 5. Louise and Kevin - 11,197 |71,370 6. Robert and Oksana - 10,362 |56,431 7. Ore and Joanne - 8102 | 39,400 8. Laura and Giovanni - 8464 |38,760 9. Daisy and Aljaz - 7548 |29,725 10. Greg and Natalie - 6947 | 26,073 11. Tameka and Gorka - 5408 |20,476 12. Anastacia and Brendan - 6739 |18,828 13. Lesley and Anton - 4775 | 16,796 14. Naga and Pasha - 4513 | 13,931 Claudia has overtaken Danny for top spot in week 3. Also here are the top spot on Sunday's count followed by top spot on Friday update|: Week 1 Sunday update - Judge Rinder Friday Update - Judge Rinder Week 2; Sunday Update - Danny Friday Update - Ed Week 3: Sunday Update - Danny Friday Update - Claudia. Don't really know what this suggests except possibly that Danny's fanbase is very excited to watch his dance again, but then maybe as the week goes on the "real" favourite dance of the week emerges? I only picked up on this because Strictly Red pointed out that Ed had overtaken Danny for week 2 so I thought we should look at the lead after a week as well to see if it is a burst of Danny love on the Saturday Night /Sunday. Obviously Judge Rinder in week one was this year's Jay Jive so casn't really be compared with anything else that goes on. I'll continue to look at Friday stats compared to Sunday from now on. xxx |
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#109 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Quote:
Top 10 YT vids of the series so far:
1: Judge Rinder and Oksana - Cha Cha Cha Week 1 - 529,965 views(already in top 5 all time SCD channel only) 2: Danny and Oti - Cha Cha Cha - Week 1 - 240642 3: Ed and Katya - Charleston - Week 2 - 117,395 4: Claudia and AJ - Charleston - Week 3 - 101,321 5. Danny and Oti - Paso - Week 3 - 92,902 6. Ed and Katya - Samba - Week 3- 89,183 7: Louise and Kevin - Jive - Week 2 86,390 8: Will and Karen - Salsa - Week 3 - 84,444 9: Danny and Oti - VW - Week 2 - 83,758 10: Greg and Natalie - Jive - Week 1 - 83277 Danny and Ed are the only contestants with more than one appearance in the top 10. Like last year BR doesn't get rewatched much (only Jay's Tango (7th) remains in the Top 10 of last years dances, the rest are latins or other) |
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#110 |
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,213
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Quote:
Also note there is only 1 BR in the top 10 so far (Danny's VW) and it's only 9th.
Like last year BR doesn't get rewatched much (only Jay's Tango (7th) remains in the Top 10 of last years dances, the rest are latins or other) Charlestons, Salsas, Jives tend to do best on YouTube. Some sambas are surprisingly popular. Pasos and rumbas tend to be the least popular latins. Only very impactful pasos do well, and even then, like Anita's one last year, which was popular but Soon overtaken by Jays salsa from the same night. Cha cha cha are not here nor there, meaning some are really popular while others are not. I believe part of the reason is that people like to watch fun party dances, with current music. |
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#111 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Facebook Likes and shares and smilies to show if they are up or down on last week.
Ore and Joanne - 28.9k likes 1.4k shares ![]() Danny & Oti - 8.8k likes 1k shares ![]() Lesley and Anton - 6.4k likes 185 shares ![]() Louise and Kevin 5.1k likes 95 shares DOWN Greg and Natalie - 4.5k likes 88 shares ![]() Claudia & AJ - 2.9k likes 71 shares DOWN Robert and Oksanna - 2.4k likes 84 shares DOWN Laura and Giovanni - 2.4k likes 56 shares ![]() Daisy & Aljaz - 2k likes 47 shares DOWN Ed & Katya 1.9K likes 101 shares - DOWN Ana & Brendan - 1.7k likes 90 shares DOWN Naga and Pasha - 1.4k likes 40 shares ![]() Naga and Pasha are bottom of the pile but more popular than last week Ore and Jo is the best reaction since Rinder in Week 1 Daisy Ed and Ana in danger along with Naga due to low interactions and likes |
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#112 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 16,008
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Some show stats:
Judges voting all very close this week with Craig a point behind the others which is pretty normal. All the judges thought the girls were overall better than the boys ever so slightly expect Bruno where there was a larger difference. Bruno has marked the girls highest every week. The current leaderboard is: 1. Danny 2. Ore 3. Louise 4. Daisy 5. Claudia 6. Laura 7. Greg 8. Lesley 9. Judge Rinder 10. Anastacia 11. Naga 12. Ed The eliminated Tameka actually still sits in 9th with her average. Will is 7th. If you separate the ballroom and Latin... Ballroom 1. Danny 2. Louise =. Laura 4. Daisy 5. Ore 6. Claudia 7. Greg 8. Anastacia = Judge Rinder 10. Lesley 11. Naga 12. Ed Latin 1. Danny 2. Ore 3. Claudia = Louise 5. Daisy 6. Lesley 7. Greg = Laura 9. Judge Rinder 10. Anastacia 11. Naga 12. Ed The vast majority of couples have done better in the ballroom than Latin, except Ore, Claudia and (perhaps most surprising) Lesley. Dance wise - everyone apart from Greg and Ed has done the Cha Cha. |
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#113 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Ore & Joanne 1140 likes 219 retweets
![]() Danny & Oti - 674 likes 120 retweets ![]() Greg & Nat - 526 likes 100 retweets ![]() Leslie and Anton - 525 likes 72 retweets ![]() Louise and Kevin 379 likes 61 retweets DOWN Ed & Katya 305 likes 95 retweets DOWN Robert and Oksanna - 288 likes 53 retweets DOWN Daisy & Aljaz - 255 likes 50 retweets DOWN Ana & Brendan - 247 likes 68 retweets DOWN Claudia & AJ - 237 likes 45 retweets DOWN Laura & Giovanni - 216 likes 56 retweets ![]() Naga and Pasha - 155 likes 28 retweets (no photo available so taken from video clip)Twitter much more out of step with FB this week. Claudia looks to be in danger here with Laura probably only safe due to leaderboard. Naga looks obviously to be in danger but her interactions are up on last week. anastacia still in the mix |
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#114 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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Ore and Joanne - 2664 views 310 likes 24 dislikes
Danny & Oti - 1610 views 158 likes 3 dislikes Anastacia & Brendan - 552 views 64 likes 5 dislikes Claudia & AJ -540 views 53 likes 1 dislikes Louise & Kevin 540 views 49 likes 5 dislikes Laura and Giovanni - 486 views 50 likes 4 dislikes Daisy & Aljaz - 400 views 32 likes 8 dislikes Lesley and Anton - 384 views 46 likes 2 dislikes Robert and Oksanna - 314 views 31 likes 4 dislikes Greg and Natalie -281 views 36 likes 2 dislikes Naga and Pasha - 244 views 17 likes 4 dislikes Ed and Katya -225 views 25 likes 3 dislike So I think although Naga is up on all interactions on last week I think she will hit the dance off. Anastacia's early YT views show her well out of danger but FB abd Twitter say otherwise. Having said that Laura and Giovanni do well on YT compared to SM. On YT and Leaderboard Greg and Nat could be in trouble, (people seem to like them but have little interest watching them back) but they look super popular on FB and Twitter. Not sure if Daisy is high enough up the leaderboard to be safe either. I'm gonna call Naga with one of Ed, Daisy or Anastacia |
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#115 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Ore and Joanne - 51182 views
Danny & Oti - 18987 views Greg and Natalie -9136 views Claudia & AJ -8680 views Louise & Kevin 8574 views Ed and Katya -8537 views Daisy & Aljaz - 7938 views Robert and Oksanna - 7914 views Lesley and Anton - 6789 views Laura and Giovanni - 6746 views Anastacia & Brendan - 6368 views Naga and Pasha - 5652 views Morning updates are much more inline with Twitter and FB. Ed looks much safer now Ore's Jive looks set to be as popular as Judge Rinder. JR was at 113,000 views after about 36 hours. |
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#116 |
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,213
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Quote:
Ore and Joanne - 51182 views
Danny & Oti - 18987 views Greg and Natalie -9136 views Claudia & AJ -8680 views Louise & Kevin 8574 views Ed and Katya -8537 views Daisy & Aljaz - 7938 views Robert and Oksanna - 7914 views Lesley and Anton - 6789 views Laura and Giovanni - 6746 views Anastacia & Brendan - 6368 views Naga and Pasha - 5652 views Morning updates are much more inline with Twitter and FB. Ed looks much safer now Ore's Jive looks set to be as popular as Judge Rinder. JR was at 113,000 views after about 36 hours. |
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#117 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Interestingly, I just clicked to most viewed vids on the channel to see where JR was in the overall vids and Jay's Jive seems to have had a big boost overnight too.
Some overnight comparing going on?
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#118 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Also I wanted to mention Danny's views for the last 3 weeks have been consistently around 19k the next morning he has the most consistent fanbase, but he hasn't had a wow reaction from the public yet (I guess you could count his Cha Cha but that was somewhat overshadowed by Rinder) I think his problem is he is expected to be good, so when we get moments from Ed, Rinder and Claudia and Ore he sort of gets forgotten. He really does need a "moment"
I think if he has a standout moment above the others his fanbase could carry him through. But right now he seems very steadily popular, so could be this years Natalie Gumede. |
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#119 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 11,409
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Thanks for the updates Lisa, and claire.
![]() I've been away, and busy when at home, so not had the opportunity to do anything myself. |
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#120 |
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Up the creek, no paddle.
Posts: 2,102
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Thank you, I love this thread!
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#121 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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update on Ore's Jive:
Ore 48 hour figure: 168k Rinder 48 hour figure 186k So I expect Ore to hit top 10 on the strictly channel Over the next couple of weeks. |
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#122 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Quote:
Thank you, I love this thread!
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#123 |
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,213
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Quote:
update on Ore's Jive:
Ore 48 hour figure: 168k Rinder 48 hour figure 186k So I expect Ore to hit top 10 on the strictly channel Over the next couple of weeks. But Neither of which are near Jays jive last year, which had over 303k views on Monday early afternoon. Also comparetively, the second most viewed video from that week was Kellies Charleston with 33.2k views. Danny's has 56.6k and considering it's a quickstep I would say he has done pretty good. |
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#124 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 15,051
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Quote:
I agree. A popular jive is always going to break top 10.
But Neither of which are near Jays jive last year, which had over 303k views on Monday early afternoon. Also comparetively, the second most viewed video from that week was Kellies Charleston with 33.2k views. Danny's has 56.6k and considering it's a quickstep I would say he has done pretty good. |
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#125 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 3,209
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Quote:
Also I wanted to mention Danny's views for the last 3 weeks have been consistently around 19k the next morning he has the most consistent fanbase, but he hasn't had a wow reaction from the public yet (I guess you could count his Cha Cha but that was somewhat overshadowed by Rinder) I think his problem is he is expected to be good, so when we get moments from Ed, Rinder and Claudia and Ore he sort of gets forgotten. He really does need a "moment"
I think if he has a standout moment above the others his fanbase could carry him through. But right now he seems very steadily popular, so could be this years Natalie Gumede. |
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