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Old 06-09-2016, 16:14
CoolSharpHarp
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If you think this has done any to strengthen the case for Union I think you're misguided. I want a referendum when we know it's a guaranteed Yes, not before, if that means now or, in the longterm, say 4 to 5 years, it would still be worth the wait.
I think it has strengthened the case for the union... the EU has some major issues and if you think people are going to rush to the EU, with whom we trade circa £12bn and leave the UK with whom we trade £48bn, I think you're misguided.

Just look at George Kerevan comments about running our own currency, where he talks about austerity and privitisation of public assets to build up the reserves needed.
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Old 06-09-2016, 16:18
anndra_w
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I think it has strengthened the case for the union... the EU has some major issues and if you think people are going to rush to the EU, with whom we trade circa £12bn and leave the UK with whom we trade £48bn, I think you're misguided.

Just look at George Kerevan comments about running our own currency, where he talks about austerity and privitisation of public assets to build up the reserves needed.
George Kerevan may favour that route but it by no means means that is the route that will be taken.
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Old 06-09-2016, 16:23
CoolSharpHarp
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George Kerevan may favour that route but it by no means means that is the route that will be taken.
Which other route would you consider?
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Old 06-09-2016, 16:25
hoppyuppy
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You need to understand though, it's a great a pleasure to the people of Scotland sitting back and taking all your tax revenue to fund our superior system off the back of your hard work. A highlight of the union is knowing that those outside of Scotland get comparatively substandard services whilst paying so much in tax, whilst we pay less and get so much more off your taxes and your handwork. You must surely understand why it's fun for us to raise the referendum question now and again to see how much people like yourself are willing to pay to keep us happy and the lifestyle we're entitled to expect you to keep us in. Enjoy your budget cuts, I hope they bite.
See post #7.
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Old 06-09-2016, 16:32
anndra_w
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Which other route would you consider?
The one that is best in the circumstances at the point where Scotland had become independent.
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Old 06-09-2016, 16:45
david16
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Does Sturgeon understand what the Brexit vote was all about ? The question was not ' should Scotland stay in the EU and if not shall we use it as another excuse to hold yet another independence referendum?' it was 'Should the UK stay in the EU?' The majority of the UK (of which Scotland is a part) voted to leave. End of.
They have stolen mine and many others votes.

When I cast my vote for the UK to remain in the EU, I wasn't voting with a 2nd independence referendum in mind.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:10
Phil 2804
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The one that is best in the circumstances at the point where Scotland had become independent.
Well if you want a currency union with either the Euro or Sterling you can bet fiscal consolidation will be a requirement. Eurozone borrowing rules require a deficit of 3% of GDP and after Greece I doubt the EU is willing to relax them.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:18
Phil 2804
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She is in a fix because if she lost, she would be out. If there was one there will be no UK interference this time, but Davidson will trounce her without it.

Ms Sturgeons only way of diverting attention from a completely bankrupt country is to raise the spectre of independence - she is playing a dangerous game.

She's equally in a fix as outside the Central Belt the SNP are in decline and frighteningly (by their own admission) they are heamoraging support to the Tories. If they don't hold a referendum now they may not be able to in 5 years, but if they do and they lose prepare for a bloodbath of infighting.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:20
anndra_w
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Well if you want a currency union with either the Euro or Sterling you can bet fiscal consolidation will be a requirement. Eurozone borrowing rules require a deficit of 3% of GDP and after Greece I doubt the EU is willing to relax them.
You mention Greece but lets look closer to home: the EU did not ask the UK to leave or claim it was bankrupt, in the way you're attempting to portray Scotland, when it had a deficit of 10% of GDP. Given Scotland has been a part of the UK and is feeling the effects of the drop in the oil price lets not rush to paint Scotland's prospect in as negative a light as possible. From your point of view you just better keep praying that the drop in oil price continues long enough to damage Scotland's economy further.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:31
CoolSharpHarp
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You mention Greece but lets look closer to home: the EU did not ask the UK to leave or claim it was bankrupt, in the way you're attempting to portray Scotland, when it had a deficit of 10% of GDP. Given Scotland has been a part of the UK and is feeling the effects of the drop in the oil price. From your point of view you just better keep praying that the drop in oil price continues long enough to damage Scotland's economy further.
Speaking of the realities of our situation, isn't talking Scotland down... this is a childish argument.

Could the EU of asked the UK to leave? There's different rules for new members vs existing members. Also that 10% figure was during or just after one of the worst recessions...
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:36
anndra_w
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[/indent]
Speaking of the realities of our situation, isn't talking Scotland down... this is a childish argument.

Could the EU of asked the UK to leave? There's different rules for new members vs existing members. Also that 10% figure was during or just after one of the worst recessions...
And Scotland's figure, within the UK, is due to one of the worst collapse in oil prices. It is not a long term picture or one that is reflective of an independent Scotland's position. Perhaps Europe might take Scotland's relative economic robustness into account?
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:38
Mou Mou Land
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[/indent]
And Scotland's figure, within the UK, is due to one of the worst collapse in oil prices. It is not a long term picture or one that is reflective of an independent Scotland's position. Perhaps Europe might take Scotland's relative economic robustness into account?
A collapse that your first minister, who was an economist, did not foresee.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:39
CoolSharpHarp
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...

She's seems to have discarded the once in a generation/lifetime statement and also her triple lock, but holding another referendum just now would be anti-democratic on her terms. She said that if the Scottish people wanted another referendum, then it was only democratic to hold one... the most recent poll I've seen shows that a majority don't want another referendum and therefore on her logic we shouldn't have one.
Nicola Sturgeon earlier today...

I wonder if she'll ignore all the points in my original post - once in a lifetime, triple lock and when the people want one - and now it boils down when they feel like it...
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:42
anndra_w
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A collapse that your first minister, who was an economist, did not foresee.
Are you claiming that she could have foreseen it? How?
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:45
CoolSharpHarp
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[/indent]
And Scotland's figure, within the UK, is due to one of the worst collapse in oil prices. It is not a long term picture or one that is reflective of an independent Scotland's position. Perhaps Europe might take Scotland's relative economic robustness into account?
Only 3 times since the year 2000 has our deficit been lower than the UKs and that's the years the oil price was at its highest. Oil as a commodity will always be volatile...

Our economy though is generally sound, it's our spending which is the issue...

Anyway why would we want to join the Euro, flexibility in monetary policy is one of the advantages of being independent and will be lost if we then sign up to the Euro...
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:46
anndra_w
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Only 3 times since the year 2000 has our deficit been lower than the UKs and that's the years the oil price was at its highest. Oil as a commodity will always be volatile...

Our economy though is generally sound, it's our spending which is the issue...

Anyway why would we want to join the Euro, flexibility in monetary policy is one of the advantages of being independent and will be lost if we then sign up to the Euro...
I don't think joining the Euro is on the cards.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:48
CoolSharpHarp
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Are you claiming that she could have foreseen it? How?
Well the SNP did say they were using cautious oil forecasts and then more or less doubled the OBR figures - who had a history of overestimating the oil revenue.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:51
anndra_w
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Well the SNP did say they were using cautious oil forecasts and then more or less doubled the OBR figures - who had a history of overestimating the oil revenue.
The OBR had a history of underestimating the oil revenue. The SNP did not go with the most optimistic forecast and more to the point no one saw the oil collapse coming. It could end as quickly as it started.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:55
Bluescope
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[/indent]
And Scotland's figure, within the UK, is due to one of the worst collapse in oil prices. It is not a long term picture or one that is reflective of an independent Scotland's position. Perhaps Europe might take Scotland's relative economic robustness into account?
What economic robustness ? At the moment Scotland's economy is based on the union with the UK and access to the sterling currency. If Scotland goes alone it is more than likely without the safety net of the sterling or the bank of England under writing the economy. Scotland would have to build up the funds to secure its own future out of population of 5 million.

This not to suggest Scotland would not be able to support itself but clear they wont have the type of funds or backing the UK has. Hence the cost of borrowing for Scotland as the risk will be higher is much greater. Not just for the government but the cost of borrowing for both business and individuals would likely rise.

The expectation that Scotland's economy will be same is misguided. The Robustness that may exist now may not exist once you have your own currency or the euro.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:56
Mou Mou Land
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Are you claiming that she could have foreseen it? How?
No, but the man who preceeded her and made up the figures should have known.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:57
Mou Mou Land
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I don't think joining the Euro is on the cards.
So what will you be allied to?
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:57
tiggertiny
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The SNP are forced to keep another indy ref as a live issue as independence is the reason for their existence so not to do so would in effect render the party pointless.

Of course if the mood generally is not favourable to another referendum or independence is still behind in the polls then they cannot risk another one, anyway.

Whether they can continue to talk in vague terms about another referendum but fail to act is debatable as presumably even their core support would begin to get impatient with constant talk but no action.
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Old 06-09-2016, 18:58
CoolSharpHarp
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The OBR had a history of underestimating the oil revenue. The SNP did not go with the most optimistic forecast and more to the point no one saw the oil collapse coming. It could end as quickly as it started.
The Scottish Government cautious figure was £6.8bn, whereas the OBR who had a history of overestimating had a figure of £3.2bn.

SNP told us they were using a cautious figure, if that was the case you would expect a figure of below £3.2bn to be used...
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Old 06-09-2016, 19:00
CoolSharpHarp
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The SNP are forced to keep another indy ref as a live issue as independence is the reason for their existence so not to do so would in effect render the party pointless.

Of course if the mood generally is not favourable to another referendum or independence is still behind in the polls then they cannot risk another one, anyway.

Whether they can continue to talk in vague terms about another referendum but fail to act is debatable as presumably even their core support would begin to get impatient with constant talk but no action.
In the meantime it has a negative effect on Scotland as it puts of investment and uncertainty doesn't help business...
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Old 06-09-2016, 19:05
anndra_w
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What economic robustness ? At the moment Scotland's economy is based on the union with the UK and access to the sterling currency. If Scotland goes alone it is more than likely without the safety net of the sterling or the bank of England under writing the economy. Scotland would have to build up the funds to secure its own future out of population of 5 million.
There are too many countries with similar or smaller populations, and less resources to exploit than Scotland, who are outperforming us to take seriously a suggestion that Scotland's size is anything other than a benefit. Independent countries of Scotlands size are amongst the most successful not only in the EU but on the planet.

This not to suggest Scotland would not be able to support itself but clear they wont have the type of funds or backing the UK has. Hence the cost of borrowing for Scotland as the risk will be higher is much greater. Not just for the government but the cost of borrowing for both business and individuals would likely rise.
]

The UK has lost it's AAA credit rating so being in the UK clearly is not key to economic security or credibility. In contrast Standard and Poor said that an independent Scotland would qualify for AAA credit rating. I think you're being unrealistically negative.

The expectation that Scotland's economy will be same is misguided. The Robustness that may exist now may not exist once you have your own currency or the euro.
I'd expect Scotland's economy to move to becoming more robust, more like it's neighbours of a similar size who all perform very highly despite having smaller populations.
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