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SNP Watch
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Daewos
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by Impinger:
“Only 40% of the Scottish Electorate voted for the UK to remain in the EU.”

Only 25.5% of the Scottish Electorate voted for the UK to leave the EU.
Daewos
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by Impinger:
“Eligible to vote: 3,987112, of that 1661191 voted remain, and 1018322 voted leave, the remainder didn't vote.

So that means.... of the electorate eligible to vote:

Remain: 41.66%
Leave/other: 58.34%

So there you have it.

Figs are from the electorate commission should you wish to try and work it out for yourself.

http://www.electoralcommission.org.u...nt-information”

So, what evidence do you have that the non-voters were leavers or can be added in with leavers? Using your logic then equally:
Leave 25.5%
Remain/Other 74.5%
Black Sheep
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by anndra_w:
“The sovereign will of the Scots was not to become indpendent in May 2016. That will has been respected. We didn't vote away the right to change our minds surely?”

I see you seem to be deliberately missing the point of my post.
Black Sheep
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by anndra_w:
“Scotland is being taken out of the EU against the will of the electorate. Any future referendum is certainly not on a whim.”

Again, deflection, the U.K. Is being taken out of the EU, not specifically Scotland. When I voted to remain it wasn't on my ballot paper that it was a Scotland only vote.

Nothing has changed from 2014, current polling shows this.

My whole point above so casually dismissed was that the voters in Scotland have stated their decision but those preferring to seperate from the UK want parliament to over ride this.
barky99
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by Impinger:
“Eligible to vote: 3,987112, of that 1661191 voted remain, and 1018322 voted leave, the remainder didn't vote.

So that means.... of the electorate eligible to vote:

Remain: 41.66%
Leave/other: 58.34%

So there you have it.

Figs are from the electorate commission should you wish to try and work it out for yourself.

http://www.electoralcommission.org.u...nt-information”

that old cheat, counting the 'others' as being on a side of your choosing -- for all you know they could have been 50/50 remain/leave or mostly pro-remain thinking remain would definitely win so didn't bother voting .... you are in postulation mode
Impinger
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by Daewos:
“So, what evidence do you have that the non-voters were leavers or can be added in with leavers? Using your logic then equally:
Leave 25.5%
Remain/Other 74.5%”

Originally Posted by barky99:
“that old cheat, counting the 'others' as being on a side of your choosing -- for all you know they could have been 50/50 remain/leave or mostly pro-remain thinking remain would definitely win so didn't bother voting .... you are in postulation mode”

Before the referendum we had Sturgeon tell us about how the majority of scots "overwhelmingly" wish to remain in the EU. That's quite a big claim, and it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect to see that backed up by the electorate getting out there and registering its vote to that effect.

But what actually happened is that only 41.66% of the Scottish electorate voted for the UK to remain in the EU.

If you want to talk about the "electorate" then you have to consider everybody who makes it up, not just those who went out and voted.

So, on that basis, I wouldn't say the majority of scots overwhelmingly wish to remain in the EU. The evidence based on the voting suggests that some 60% of it either doesn't want to or isn't bothered either way.
TYCO
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by Black Sheep:
“Nothing has changed from 2014, current polling shows this.”

Polling showed we'd have a hung UK parliament. Polling showed we'd remain in the EU. Don't bang on about polls just because it suits you. We've only scratched the surface as far as the consequences of THE VOTE TO LEAVE, then when WE ACTUALLY LEAVE, we're going to see the fish hit the fan. Then what do you think that's going to do to the polls? As the great ship Britannia sinks, Scotland is going to abandon ship, since it is not the captain.

You'd better hope for access to the single market, and VERY little to change, otherwise the UK is going down.
TYCO
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by Impinger:
“So, on that basis, I wouldn't say the majority of scots overwhelmingly wish to remain in the UK. The evidence based on the voting suggests that some 60% of it either doesn't want to or isn't bothered either way.”

If you knew anything about polling, you'd know that the experts extrapolate the results across of the poll across the entire electorate, to get something vaguely representative. So, if we consider the actual vote to be one extremely accurate poll, it suggests that 45% of the electorate would have voted for independence and 55% would have voted to remain in the UK, had everybody voted. To suggest anything other than that is nonsense.
zarkov
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by Black Sheep:
“Again, deflection, the U.K. Is being taken out of the EU, not specifically Scotland. When I voted to remain it wasn't on my ballot paper that it was a Scotland only vote.

Nothing has changed from 2014, current polling shows this.

My whole point above so casually dismissed was that the voters in Scotland have stated their decision but those preferring to seperate from the UK want parliament to over ride this.”

So if Labour or a pro EU party were to gain power at Westminster and promised a rerun of the EU referendum you will join the Brexiters wailing "no fair! the people have spoken". What would you do? Vote to stay out? Boycott it?

Your whole point and that of your fellow unionists is that you would like democratic decisions regarding Scotland's place in the UK to be perpetually frozen at 19th September 2014.

People are allowed to change their minds. Almost certainly the 177,000 EU citizens living in Scotland who mostly voted No the last time will have had pause for thought.

If the Scottish Parliament decides to have another referendum it will happen. But guess what? You will still get to vote against independence if that is your choice. That is how democracy works.
Impinger
10-09-2016
Originally Posted by TYCO:
“If you knew anything about polling, the experts extrapolate the results across the entire electorate. So, if we consider the vote to be one extremely accurate poll, we can suggest that 45% of the electorate would have voted for independence and 55% would have voted to remain in the UK, to suggest anything other than that is nonsense.”

It's the SNP you need to be telling that to - twas them making their claim.
San Fran Sara
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by anndra_w:
“Scotland is being taken out of the EU against the will of the electorate. Any future referendum is certainly not on a whim.”

Against its will, says who?

Scotland was out of the EU anyway if they had voted for independence, with no chance of a fast track re entry and zero chance of becoming a member because Spain and France would veto its application.

There is not going to be IndyRef 2, you are out of the EU and its time the SNP got of its arse and started doing what it was elected to do and that is govern, time Sturgeon stopped prancing about Europe on the taxpayers dime and sorted out the cluster****s that are Police Scotland and the NHS.

Maybe she could even pay some attention to the issues of widespread depravation within her own constituency, because the natives will not re elect her next time if their pressing needs are deemed not important. Scotland is a mess and its down to those currently in charge.

And I'm reading that the SNP are loosing support in their northern power base to the Scottish Conservatives, that suggests the independence bubble has burst and folk are seeing the SNP for what they really are a single issue party clueless in how to govern, Most scots are not stupid are are not going to like another IndyRef being forced upon them, they say the natives are revolting well its true but against the SNP.

Sturgeon has been an abject failure and embarrassment for the party and the country when compared with Ruth Davidson who comes across as First Minister material and i think its fair to say the SNP will haemorrhage support in the coming years but Labour will not see much of it, the Scottish Conservatives especially in the north of Scotland will be the beneficiaries.

The SNP are the scottish Parti Québécois.
smudges dad
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by San Fran Sara:
“Against its will, says who?

Scotland was out of the EU anyway if they had voted for independence, with no chance of a fast track re entry and zero chance of becoming a member because Spain and France would veto its application.

There is not going to be IndyRef 2, you are out of the EU and its time the SNP got of its arse and started doing what it was elected to do and that is govern, time Sturgeon stopped prancing about Europe on the taxpayers dime and sorted out the cluster****s that are Police Scotland and the NHS.

Maybe she could even pay some attention to the issues of widespread depravation within her own constituency, because the natives will not re elect her next time if their pressing needs are deemed not important. Scotland is a mess and its down to those currently in charge.

And I'm reading that the SNP are loosing support in their northern power base to the Scottish Conservatives, that suggests the independence bubble has burst and folk are seeing the SNP for what they really are a single issue party clueless in how to govern, Most scots are not stupid are are not going to like another IndyRef being forced upon them, they say the natives are revolting well its true but against the SNP.

Sturgeon has been an abject failure and embarrassment for the party and the country when compared with Ruth Davidson who comes across as First Minister material and i think its fair to say the SNP will haemorrhage support in the coming years but Labour will not see much of it, the Scottish Conservatives especially in the north of Scotland will be the beneficiaries.

The SNP are the scottish Parti Québécois.”

Where are you reading that the SNP is losing support?
errea
11-09-2016
Probably in some rag like the Daily Mail or Express.
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Where are you reading that the SNP is losing support?”

Brexit is the game changer. It's made the marriage of convenience that is the UK, look substantially more the like an inconvenience for Scotland.

No next time means loosing membership of the world's largest single market/ trading block and will mean hitching a ride with the Little Englanders to the 1970s.
CoolSharpHarp
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by errea:
“Probably in some rag like the Daily Mail or Express.


Brexit is the game changer. It's made the marriage of convenience that is the UK, look substantially more the like an inconvenience for Scotland.

No next time means loosing membership of the world's largest single market/ trading block and will mean hitching a ride with the Little Englanders to the 1970s.”

So you're calling a million of your fellow Scots little Englanders...

Our biggest trading market is the UK though... you know the market we trade 4 times more with than the EU.
Phil 2804
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by errea:
“Probably in some rag like the Daily Mail or Express.


Brexit is the game changer. It's made the marriage of convenience that is the UK, look substantially more the like an inconvenience for Scotland.

No next time means loosing membership of the world's largest single market/ trading block and will mean hitching a ride with the Little Englanders to the 1970s.”

Only about 11% of Scotland's trade is with the EU, about 50% is with the rest of the UK. Why would Scots vote to leave economic union with their biggest market on the hope of future membership of the EU, because as the EU leaders have already told Sturgeon on independence day Scotland wont be a member of the EU as they wont negotiate terms for Scotland until AFTER Brexit. Even then would Scots want terms of EU membership which would be very different to the terms and many exemptions the UK has? I'll remind you before Greece Sturgeon and co were advocating Euro membership, after Greece during the referendum they tried desperately to sell a currency union keeping Sterling? Why was that? Even now they are talking of separate Scottish currency rather than the Euro, WHY is that?

Nothing has changed the SNP set a benchmark of 60% support in the polls sustained for 2 years iirc? Well its been 3 months since the referendum and the polls still favour Scotland remaining in the UK, even when people are reminded that will mean leaving the EU?

Again I'll point out that the areas that voted No in 2014 were the areas where Brexit polled strongest in Scotland, in some areas like Moray the vote was barely more than 50/50 for staying. How will you convince these areas to back Independence within the EU? They are also the areas with the biggest upswing in Tory support since 2014, which suggests opinion in hardening in these areas.

Unless the SNP have a cast iron strategy for winning an Indyref there is really little point in having one.
CharlieClown
11-09-2016
Scotland And The Battle For Britain.

This two part series starts on BBC 2 at 8pm tonight. It'll amongst other things, chart the rise of the SNP and fall of Labour. Andrew Marr will host. Sturgeon, Salmond, Blair, Darling, John Curtis and Sir Tom Devine and many others will feature. Hopefully we get a decent well balanced piece from the BBC and not a negative spin on Scottish independence.

Just thought I'd give you guys a heads up incase you weren't aware of this.
barky99
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Where are you reading that the SNP is losing support?”

has to be the tory loyal media who gloss over fact tory support is falling & they only look better right now because labour has fallen through the floor!
Phil 2804
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Where are you reading that the SNP is losing support?”

Did they lose seats in May?

Why did they lose seats in May?

Here's a clue.

Aberdeenshire East: SNP DOWN 18.7% Tories UP 15.1%

Perthshire North: SNP DOWN 12.3% Tories UP 12.5%

Moray: SNP DOWN 11.7% Tories UP 18%


North East Scotland Regional Vote SNP DOWN 8.1% Tories UP 13.1%

Highlands and Islands Regional Vote SNP DOWN 7.8% Tories UP 10.1%

I could go on...
smudges dad
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by Phil 2804:
“Did they lose seats in May?

Why did they lose seats in May?

Here's a clue.

Aberdeenshire East: SNP DOWN 18.7% Tories UP 15.1%

Perthshire North: SNP DOWN 12.3% Tories UP 12.5%

Moray: SNP DOWN 11.7% Tories UP 18%


North East Scotland Regional Vote SNP DOWN 8.1% Tories UP 13.1%

Highlands and Islands Regional Vote SNP DOWN 7.8% Tories UP 10.1%

I could go on...”

Constituency vote was up 1.1% overall, so where is the falling support across Scotland. Cherry picking 3 constituencies may be clever, but obviously it shows SNP support increasing by more elsewhere.
Daewos
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Constituency vote was up 1.1% overall, so where is the falling support across Scotland. Cherry picking 3 constituencies may be clever, but obviously it shows SNP support increasing by more elsewhere.”

Indeed. And if we look at 2011 the SNP increased their vote from 2007.

Aberdeenshire East: Up 19.83%

Perthshire North: Up 10.48%

Moray: SNP Up 9%

North East Scotland Regional Vote SNP Up 12.2%

Highlands and Islands Regional Vote SNP Up 13.1%

In effect they have lost some of their gains in these areas and, unsurprisingly, the Tories are benefiting in areas which are natural Tory targets. However, the collapse of Labour helped this time around to increase the urban vote.
woodrow
11-09-2016
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37334382

Looking at the numbers turning out in this demo compared to what the SNP could muster in their last march for independence shows, categorically, just how far their rhetoric is from reality. Sturgeon must be wish, wish ,wishing.
Phil 2804
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Constituency vote was up 1.1% overall, so where is the falling support across Scotland. Cherry picking 3 constituencies may be clever, but obviously it shows SNP support increasing by more elsewhere.”

Mid Scotland and Fife Region: SNP DOWN 4% Conservatives UP 11%

I cherry picked seats the SNP held, but the fact is the also lost a number of seats including direct constituency losses to the Tories. The SNP regional list vote actually declined across Scotland and that also contributed to the overall loss of seats and the loss of their majority. There were bold predictions from SNP supporters of 73 seats just the day before the election.

Gains in Labour heartlands in the central belt were strongly outweighed by losses to the Tories in the rest of Scotland all the numbers speak for themselves and if the pattern continues then Alex Salmond, John Swinney and Roseanna Cunnigham among others are in for a tough fight at future elections.
Phil 2804
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by Daewos:
“Indeed. And if we look at 2011 the SNP increased their vote from 2007.

Aberdeenshire East: Up 19.83%

Perthshire North: Up 10.48%

Moray: SNP Up 9%

North East Scotland Regional Vote SNP Up 12.2%

Highlands and Islands Regional Vote SNP Up 13.1%

In effect they have lost some of their gains in these areas and, unsurprisingly, the Tories are benefiting in areas which are natural Tory targets. However, the collapse of Labour helped this time around to increase the urban vote.”


Well if you want to dredge up the past the Tories are currently standing around the where the SNP were post 2003 election and in 2007-2011 Parliament which party effectively propped up Alex Salmond and co throughout? The Conservatives, indeed Salmond later went on to claim a number of Tory concessions for his own and campaign on them in 2011.

As for the BIB your desire to be dismissive actually sums up perfectly the direction of travel of Scottish politics and why a future referendum will be an uphill struggle for the SNP.

The SNP used to be strongest in old Tory strongholds, as the Tories declined the SNP grew. As the SNP have moved leftward and into Labour heartlands they have increasingly developed tax and spending policies that wealthier more Tory inclined parts of the country see as less than appealing. These Tory areas are also the areas that had the biggest and most unequivocal No votes in 2014 along with the highest turnouts.

What the SNP, with the Greens and Socialists have managed to do is dress nationalism and independence as a left wing cause. Increasingly alienating more moderate voters, Unionism is dressing itself in centre right clothing and the Tories are cashing in. Prior to the SNP Scottish Politics was quite polarised Tory/Labour, only the Tories have ever polled more than 50% of the vote in Scotland.

The worst case scenario for the SNP is that Scottish politics again becomes polarised only this time on SNP and Tory/Unionist lines. The party may find itself electorally the dominant force but unable to reach out beyond its core vote and persuade the wider public of its cause. Perpetual political stalemate.
Hammy
11-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Constituency vote was up 1.1% overall, so where is the falling support across Scotland. Cherry picking 3 constituencies may be clever, but obviously it shows SNP support increasing by more elsewhere.”

And what should also be made clear, is that the % figures you are replying to, are the +/- in % share of the vote, not the actual +/- % of votes cast for a party since the last election. ie, In Perthshire North, although John Swinney's share of the overall vote was down 12.3 % from 2011, the number of votes he received was actually up approx 4%, so if the Tories gained votes there, it wasn't from the SNP.
Also the SNP increased their number of votes in both the Constituency and Regional votes since 2011, so rather than the SNP losing votes & support (although in certain areas it's is down marginally), it's other parties gaining votes due to the increased turnout from the 2011 election, hence why there is such drop in SNP's % share especially in the overall Regional Vote, when in fact their vote actually increased.
zarkov
11-09-2016
Quite laughable that people think that the 2016 election proves that the SNP are on a downward trend. Let me remind you that their combined Constituency and Regional vote was larger than both Tory and Labour votes put together.

If this was a Westminster style election the SNP would have 59 seats. Tory 7, Lib Dems 4 and Labour 3.

Ruthie Tank Commander as First Minister? A unionist wet dream. Just keep drinking and passing the Kool-Aid round folks.
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