This latest now doing the rounds on forums.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1111724.html

Britain's Departure Likely to Cost EU Billions

"10 Billion Euros or Worse

Commissioned by the European Commission and the General Secretariat of the European Council, the first calculations on how expensive Brexit might be for the 27 remaining member states have now been completed. According to one paper, net revenues that flow into the EU from Britain each year range from 14 to 21 billion euros. If you subtract the money Britain gets back from Brussels, the EU budget would shrink by up to 10 billion euros per year."





"In 2015, the study found, Britain was in second place: The British paid 12.7 billion euros more than they got back from the EU. By comparison, Germany paid 15.6 billion. The paper also determined that the British paid more into the EU per capita than Germany did that year. "After this country's withdrawal from the EU, this net amount will have to be redistributed among the other member states," writes CEP report author Matthias Kullas. "The other major net payers -- especially Germany, France and Italy -- will be facing significant additional costs."

Brexit could also lead to painful shortfalls for the European Investment Bank (EIB), Kullas calculated. If the British were to withdraw their share capital in the development bank, it would result in a shortfall worth billions. The EIB would be forced to make fewer loans -- loans that are vital for infrastructure projects across the Continent.

According to Kullas, the British have thus far borne the greatest burden at the bank. Their share of total capital is 16 percent, but they only benefit from 8.8 percent of the loans. No other country has a larger imbalance. "

From that same article.

"But it could be even worse. The rebate to Britain's EU contributions negotiated by Margaret Thatcher has led to more than 110 billion euros in savings for the British over the years. Given that other net payers, including Germany, did not want to be made responsible for the additional costs this created, they were also given a rebate. In addition to Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria and Denmark also currently enjoy a reduction in what they must pay into the budget. After Brexit, this spat could intensify, especially given that France, which is also a net payer, doesn't get any rebate at all."

An interesting chart on that link showing which countries give to the UK and which countries receive and how much (in billions)

To those on here who think that Ireland now keeps itself and gives to the EU, they don't. The 2015 figures showing that Irleand still receive from the EU;.

Afaik the rebate was about CAP payments and France was one of the largest recipients of them hence no rebate. Sooner or later the implications of Brexit on the EU's budget are going to come to the fore.

Acccording to that paper, it might have to be CAP that is one of the budgets that is cut when they lose the UK's billions from the EU budget, which is why I assume, they anticiapte France might then ask for a rebate too.

Ireland is hovering between a net contributor and beneficiary at the moment ie. paying in and receiving roughly the same amount.

It was heading towards being a net contributor in the mid noughties but the huge financial crash and bailout knocked the country right back.

........ likely to cost Britain billions as well.

Why else do you think they were so desperate for us to stay? Brussels has been fleecing UK taxpayers for decades.

Really? so if it costs both parties "billions" where has that money gone??

Astronomical legal costs / thousands of extra civil servants on mega wages / paying for the EU schemes to continue. It's going to cost UK more in short to medium term from Brexit than staying in EU. That ignores the impact to the economy. Anybody trying/hoping to prove the benefit of Brexit on this simple matrix is doomed to failure.

Initital costs then, I never expected us to feel all the benefits till at least 3-5 after leaving.

I can live with that.

That's not what that EU chart shows . The 2015 EU figures showing that Irleand is still receiving from the EU, not giving. They even listed Ireland under "Net Receivers"!
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1111724.html


Malta is a Net Reciever, but take less than Ireland. Ireland took the same as Croatia and Estonia in 2015.

I can just imagine the French now in their berets, cigarette in one hand, glass of chardonnay in the other protesting at this, especially if their precious CAP benefits are put at risk 😂

save Britain billions you mean...... £18.1 billion according to 2014 figures........ that's £366 million per week saved........

You really need to get a grip.

How so? The net amount of money we will get back varies by some measures but I think consensus is between £8-£10bn net. Now all these existing scheme which receive EU funding will come out of the rest of that money which was committed anyway. So that £8bn that comes from the EU and funds projects a research here will still continue, most likely administered by government departments we have anyway. Its not a complicated business unwinding the funding and setting out committments, its unwinding the laws which is the problem.

I accept in the initial term there will be upfront costs like hiring trade envoys and negotiators, however again I don't see that as being a net cost given it will most probably come from the money we save not paying into the EU anymore. I don't mean that £350m+ either I mean the net component of about £8bn-£10bn. There will be some adjustments in the Economy of course, however unless government revenue falls through the floor (increasingly unlikely) then the actual cost to the tax payer will broadly be neutral.

This is what puzzles me of those who really dislike the fact we are leaving the EU, there is so much venom and animosity towards those who exercised their democratic right to vote a certain way in fair electoral event. Why?

Then the bullshit about it costing more because of XYZ and yet fail to pull out a calculator and look at the figures logically and objectively, I don't understand how committment to existing schemes is going to gobble up that £18bn or so a year we won't be paying into the EU when we leave.

Not really, got a perfect grip thanks.

According to the EU "most of the funding is managed within the beneficiary countries, responsibility for conducting checks and annual audits lies with national governments. Over 76% of the EU budget is managed in partnership with national and regional authorities through a system of shared management". Or in other words we're doing most it already.

In 2014, Ireland was a net contributor to the EU :

http://www.independent.ie/business/i...-34815450.html

These figures tend to fluctuate from year to year, especially for countries hovering between being net contributors and net receivers.

On https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...familjebok.png with https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com...4c92b302ba.jpg

Your figures do not compute or to put it another way don't add up.

If you take everything the UK receives in the way of money then our net contribution was less that £6bn but that does not take account of the costs of facilities we used to pay the EU to provide, then there all the additional bits and bobs and new departments to pay for.

Consultants McKinsey don't come cheap and in the Breakit department there are said to be earning £5,000 a day.

And there's no guarantee the UK won't be paying billions to be part of the EU action.

(If UK exports to the EU decline by just 10% that's £22.8bn a year, do you really think our fat, lazy golf playing business men are going to make that up trading with the rest of the World?)

If we don't need the EU why is David Davis even contemplating negotiating there's nothing to lose financially and he's got spare billions in his back pocket...but for some bizarre reason he describes leaving the EU as complex, that he doesn't rule out access to the Single market, talks of taking control of the borders but doesn't rule out free movement.

Brexit means Breakit

Or as one MP said will it be the full English Brexit or the dog's Brexit.

The dissolution of the CAP after we leave will be a show not to miss. French farmers having to pay and receive market prices will be a joy to behold, because as sure as hell is hot, Germany will not support them on its own.

Hasn't the CAP already been steadily been declining from 71% of the EU budget in 1984 to less than 40% these days?

Yes, but the French still depend on it - they see it as the last bastion of belonging to the EU, and Germany tolerates it purely to keep French support - makes a change from Panzers I suppose.