📈📉 YouGov Strictly Come Dancing Tracker

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Arcana

30-09-2016

I thought it might be enlightening to devote a thread to this.

Before the first show:

Quote:
“As the new series of Strictly Come Dancing starts tonight, YouGov is kicking off a new tracker that we will be running through the entire series to measure the public's response to the rhumbas, judgement on the jives and feelings about the foxtrots.

The initial research shows that overall, three in ten people say they intend to watch at least some of this series and singer Will Young is the contestant most people want to win (with 18% of the public with an opinion backing him). The next most popular are TV judge Robert Rinder and former Eternal singer Louise Redknapp (both on 13%).
✂️
Despite being pipped to the post by Will Young and Judge Rinder when it comes who people most want to win, Louise Redknapp is the contestant the most people think is most likely to win, with 23% believing she will take home the glitter ball. Young is hot on her heels though (on 20%), but Judge Rinder’s popularity doesn't translate into an expectation to win as just 5% of people say they think he will win.”

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/23...-more-people-/

This week's update (via Radio Times):

Quote:
“Model Daisy Lowe and her partner Aljaz Skorjanec may have topped the leaderboard but it was Danny Mac who most impressed Strictly fans, according to research conducted by YouGov exclusively for RadioTimes.com.

The Hollyoaks actor is the celebrity dancer viewers reckon performed the best last weekend with 21% of the vote, closely followed by Judge Rinder on 20%, Louise Redknapp (17%) and judges' favourite Lowe on 9%.

Ed Balls, Melvin Odoom, Lesley Joseph and Tameka Empson are the celebs deemed by viewers to have performed the worst over the opening weekend, each earning just 1% of the vote.

However, while Mac impressed in the first live show, former Eternal singer Redknapp is tipped by fans as the most likely to win the series. 18% of those surveyed reckon she will take the Glitterball come December, with 17% predicting victory for Mac and 15% singling out Will Young for the Strictly title.

As for the contestant they'd most like to win the series, fans are rooting for Judge Rinder who after week one captured 22% of the vote – streets ahead of Redknapp and Young who, in joint second place, secured 12%.”

http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2016-...he-glitterball

lundavra

30-09-2016

Looking down the YouGov list, it seems to show more about the people voting on YouGov that the contestants.

strictlylicious

30-09-2016

Thanks Arcana

If you could provide a weekly update that would be most informative

VicsMum

30-09-2016

When I first saw that I thought, "Why the government official website is bothering with SCD?". Then I remembered that the government website is GovUk, not YouGov.

miss buzzybee

30-09-2016

I did the survey for that last week

StrictlyEastend

30-09-2016

Very interesting.

Arcana

02-10-2016

Originally Posted by strictlylicious:
“Thanks Arcana If you could provide a weekly update that would be most informative ”

I've put a reminder on my 📱

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/30...nners-week-on/

daziechain

02-10-2016

Interesting but I bet they were predicting a Peter Andre win this time last year.

Arcana

07-10-2016

This week's update: 💃

Quote:
“Drama abounded over the second weekend of Strictly Come Dancing, with singer Anastacia unable to compete in the dance off after tearing a mastectomy scar during training. Nonetheless, the star made it through after the viewers’ vote eliminated presenter Melvin Odoom instead.

The public are split on how the decision over who should be eliminated was made. Four in ten (39%) Strictly viewers thought that it should have been the judges’ decision, whilst 37% felt the viewers should be the ones to decide.

Unfortunately for Anastacia YouGov's weekly Strictly tracker sees her dropping to second-last place in the ranking of who viewers with an opinion would most like to win. She joins Ore Oduba and Lesley Joseph in the public opinion danger zone - just 1% of viewers want each star to win, and if they fail to score well with the judges to compensate they are at serious risk of being eliminated.”

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/10/06...-favourite-lo/

Monkseal

07-10-2016

I think it's a mistake to tie "who do you want to win?" to "who are you voting for this week?". Those are two very different questions (I gave votes to save two contestants at the weekend and I wouldn't have them anywhere my winners circle) and you'd think a professional organisation like YouGov would know better. I'd say it's fairly obvious that Ed Balls in particular is picking up votes not because people want him to win, but because people want him to do well.

Interesting to see viewers pretty much evenly split on Anastaciagate. That's where I've seen most credible polls on it - a slim margin saying the BBC made the wrong decision but nothing decisive.

LadyLavender

07-10-2016

Agree at this stage in the competition. Voting is a mix of 'my favourite' and 'want to see them next week' and 'deserves another chance'.

It changes at roughly around Blackpool when the voting seems to shift to picking finalists.

YouGov can probably correctly make an inference right now that if no-one has a celebrity in mind as either their preferred winner, or the most likely to win, then that particular celebrity is out of sight, out of mind and out of public votes.

Arcana

07-10-2016

Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“I think it's a mistake to tie "who do you want to win?" to "who are you voting for this week?". Those are two very different questions (I gave votes to save two contestants at the weekend and I wouldn't have them anywhere my winners circle) and you'd think a professional organisation like YouGov would know better. I'd say it's fairly obvious that Ed Balls in particular is picking up votes not because people want him to win, but because people want him to do well.

Interesting to see viewers pretty much evenly split on Anastaciagate. That's where I've seen most credible polls on it - a slim margin saying the BBC made the wrong decision but nothing decisive.”

By your own reasoning, a lot depends on the question asked. In this case only two explicit options were given i.e. the couple with the fewest votes should be eliminated if there is no DO vs the judges should still decide who is eliminated if there is no DO. There are numerous other options which weren't spelled out e.g. the couple who decline to do the DO should be eliminated if there is no DO.

Anyway, when it comes to these issues I think people have a tendency to choose options which give the ultimate result they want rather than the option they really believe is fairest.

What I think is pretty clear is that the theory that only a few rabid nutters on DS had reservations about what the BBC did does not fly. 🐱👤

Monkseal

07-10-2016

"Neither of these" covers "the person who couldn't participate in the dance-off should be automatically eliminated". It got 13% of the vote. With 11% to "Don't Know" this means that of the people with an opinion :

41% thought the show did the right thing
44% thought the judges should have decided who went home
15% thought they should have done something else, including "they should have booted Anastacia out automatically" but also other options also suggested here including "both contestants should get through to next week". Whether these options would have scored higher if they'd been offered separately is another question, but this is the poll we have. It could be argued that it's a bad poll I guess?

Arcana

07-10-2016

Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“"Neither of these" covers "the person who couldn't participate in the dance-off should be automatically eliminated". It got 13% of the vote. With 11% to "Don't Know" this means that of the people with an opinion :

41% thought the show did the right thing
44% thought the judges should have decided who went home
15% thought they should have done something else, including "they should have booted Anastacia out automatically" but also other options also suggested here including "both contestants should get through to next week". Whether these options would have scored higher if they'd been offered separately is another question, but this is the poll we have. It could be argued that it's a bad poll I guess?”

It's blatantly a leading question but still the poll is interesting as far as it goes.

Muggsy

07-10-2016

Originally Posted by Arcana:
“By your own reasoning, a lot depends on the question asked. In this case only two explicit options were given i.e. the couple with the fewest votes should be eliminated if there is no DO vs the judges should still decide who is eliminated if there is no DO. There are numerous other options which weren't spelled out e.g. the couple who decline to do the DO should be eliminated if there is no DO.

Anyway, when it comes to these issues I think people have a tendency to choose options which give the ultimate result they want rather than the option they really believe is fairest.

What I think is pretty clear is that the theory that only a few rabid nutters on DS had reservations about what the BBC did does not fly. 🐱👤”

I think there's a difference between choosing an option when answering a poll and starting numerous threads/shoehorning the issue into several of the others regardless.

Monkseal

07-10-2016

Looking at the data (and whilst I know it's early days, and the % are small because there's so many contestants), it's interesting to see which contestants seem obviously more popular with younger respondents than older (Rinder, Greg, EdBalls, Laura) and vice versa (Louise, Will). It's particularly obvious with Will being rock bottom with teenagers/student age people, but 3rd favourite amongst the over 65+s. Might be interesting to keep an eye on it as the series goes on and the % climb higher.

(Also no surprise even now that male respondents are more likely to favour a female contestant and female respondents are more likely to favour a male one. Ovary voters the lot of them).

Arcana

14-10-2016

Week 4 update:

Quote:
“Despite various controversies in recent weeks, the biggest story of this year’s Strictly Come Dancing is the rise and rise of Danny Mac.

Going into the fourth weekend of the competition the actor looks like an increasingly good bet to lift the glitterball trophy. Just before the competition started YouGov found that a mere 2% of Strictly viewers with an opinion thought he was the contestant most likely to win. However, over successive weeks this rose to 17% then 26% and, now, after last weekend’s Paso Doble, 42% think he will end up as champion.”

Is a Danny Mac victory on Strictly inevitable?

Monaogg

14-10-2016

Originally Posted by Arcana:
“Week 4 update:

Is a Danny Mac victory on Strictly inevitable?”

The site claims the show will finish a week early. So one has to wonder how accurate they will be already.

Hamlet77

14-10-2016

With pollsters having an almighty dreadful reputation over the last few years, I expect exactly the opposite to be the case from whatever they say.

The reall cynic in me (what do you mean you thought I was being cynical to start with), says this is some rather pathetic attempt by Yougov to be able to relate to the GBP again cos they ain't very good at it at the moment.

Or maybe (still in cynic mode BTW) Yougov want to readjust their algorithms and will examine at the end of each what they were told and what actually happened do some clever statistical analysis and jiggery pokery, so at the end of the series be able to get their predictions for future polls slightly less wrong than they have of recent years.

Monkseal

14-10-2016

It's interesting that over twice as many people think Danny is going to win as want him to. There's a similar discrepancy with Daisy. Both look to be seen as frontrunners more than is actually the case. Still, obviously a good week for Danny, Ore, and Claudia.

(Interesting to see overwhelming support for the theme weeks in the full data as well *runs away*)

Arcana

22-10-2016

Week 5 update: Will it be glory for Ore?

Quote:
“Following his tens from the judges, Ore Oduba is challenging Danny Mac for viewers’ affections as we enter the show’s fifth weekend, the latest YouGov Strictly tracker reveals.

The BBC Sport presenter is now the contestant viewers are rooting for, with almost a third (32%) of those with an opinion saying he is the dancer they most want to win. This is a seismic turnaround as the previous week this figure stood at just 7%. With one routine, Ore has leapfrogged Danny Mac, Louise Redknapp, Judge Rinder, Claudia Fragapane and Greg Rutherford in viewers’ appreciation.

His jive has also landed him in second spot when viewers are asked about who they think is most likely to win. Almost one in three (32%) of those with an opinion think he has the best chance of prevailing, meaning he is in touching distance of leader Danny Mac (35%). Again, this is an impressive turnaround for the presenter as last week just 3% believed he would lift the glitterball trophy.”

Lots of people apparently with not much support. Cue 'nobody is safe' mantra. 😧

Monkseal

22-10-2016

Interesting to see that despite the general opinion here that Danny's quickstep was amazing, best ever, better than Ore, deserved more 10s, it didn't appear do a thing for his popularity or his chances of winning. In fact the only person other than Ore who went up in popularity after last weekend was Lesley.

dippydancing

22-10-2016

Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“Interesting to see that despite the general opinion here that Danny's quickstep was amazing, best ever, better than Ore, deserved more 10s, it didn't appear do a thing for his popularity or his chances of winning. In fact the only person other than Ore who went up in popularity after last weekend was Lesley.”

Someone on the Stats thread (BMLisa?) said that latin dances almost always have higher viewing figures on YT and FB than ballroom, so maybe this is part of that trend?

StrictlyRed

22-10-2016

Originally Posted by dippydancing:
“Someone on the Stats thread (BMLisa?) said that latin dances almost always have higher viewing figures on YT and FB than ballroom, so maybe this is part of that trend?”

Yes, I think it was Lisa who said that.

Yesterday I posted an updated list of the top 10 viewed dances on YouTube so far this series, and the only ballroom on the list is Danny's VW at number 9.

Pam_Kerr

22-10-2016

Having filled in many you gov polls over the years I wouldn't put my faith in anything they say. The way the polls are set up means the only answers they get are the ones they want.

With regard to Strictly voting I vote for the person I would like to win (pro dancer, not celeb) unless their partner happens to be a complete plank. Once that person has been voted off I vote for the next in line. If there is an exceptional dance one week then I would vote for that.

Given the way the judges scores are up and down like a fiddler's elbow there is no way they can be used as a guide to voting. We, the public, just have to go with our instincts.

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