Originally Posted by Mrs Moose:
“I am not good enough with maths to work out the statistical probability - actual dancing ability set aside - of two non-white contestants being in the dance-off two weeks running. But I think the odds would be quite long.”
Assume fifteen contestants at the start of whom four are non-white and all are of equal ability.
The probability that in Week 1 both dance off contestants are white is 11/15 x 10/14 = 0.52. Thus the probability that at least one is non white is 0.48 or 48%.
If one non- white contestant leaves in Week 1, there are fourteen left and three non-white.
The probability that both dance off contestants in Week 2 are white is now 11/14 x 10/13 = 0.6. The probability of at least one non white contestant in the dance off is therefore 0.4 or 40%.
The combined probability for both weeks is nineteen percent.
This does not however mean that there is an 81% chance that the voting is racist. That would be a misunderstanding of probability theory.
I am providing these numbers purely for those interested in the debate, on which I have no strong view one way or the other.