Way too early to tell, because I think the overall script has had to be rethought with Will leaving, and because either it's not that good a year or I'm just still recovering from the last show.
I can't see Danny not being in the final, though you never know. Ore needs Craig to pick on his thumbs and give him a four, or something like that. (You can't be the plucky learner with the odds against you if you are consistently top of the leaderboard.) If that happens, I think he's won this. If the judges keep putting him at the top, I think that helps everyone else. I also think it's a possibility Ore will fade when it gets to two dances, though he hasn't the workload of Scott or Jake as far as I know. So I don't think it's certain he'll be in the final, though right now I agree it's likely.
I also don't know if Kevin's heart is really in it this year. Let's see if Halloween inspires him. I think Louise is very likely to be in the final as I can't see the judges sending her home (shades of Emma Bunton might be affecting me).
Claudia - could well get a lot of support herself but I think AJ isn't a vote winner.
Daisy - not writing her off yet, that charleston was a mis-step, but Alijaz also struggles with Halloween.
Laura - I think the show has thrown her under the same bus as Greg.
Judge - don't really think he'll get to the final but it's not impossible - that speech about teachers was really good.
Right now I'd bet on a Danny, Ore, Louise final, but I'd have bet on Jake getting to the final at this point in his year.