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GDP surges ahead and beats all expectations in quarter after brexit
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James_Orton
28-10-2016
I see one of our largest EU neighbours had growth of 0.2%.

Not good for Hollande in an election year, that won't boost jobs.
HR Guru
28-10-2016
Originally Posted by James_Orton:
“I see one of our largest EU neighbours had growth of 0.2%.

Not good for Hollande in an election year, that won't boost jobs.”

Hollande is done and for good reason. Roll on Juppe who has a firm lead over anyone else and who has actually done some real government work previously.
HR Guru
28-10-2016
I see our neighbour battling with a government in deadlock and high youth unemployment has beaten both the UK and France with a 0.7% increase and a 3.2% increase y-o-y.
ireland2day
28-10-2016
Originally Posted by HR Guru:
“I see our neighbour battling with a government in deadlock and high youth unemployment has beaten both the UK and France with a 0.7% increase and a 3.2% increase y-o-y.”

Spain well on to its way to recovery.
MTUK1
28-10-2016
Originally Posted by ireland2day:
“Spain well on to its way to recovery.”

I'm going to applaud you for having a sense of humour. What's its unemployment rate?
The Brain
28-10-2016
Why do people keep saying 'after Brexit'? We haven't even triggered Article 50 yet, let alone left the EU.
ireland2day
28-10-2016
Originally Posted by MTUK1:
“I'm going to applaud you for having a sense of humour. What's its unemployment rate?”

Yesterday it hit a six year low falling below 20%
Yes that is still too high but remember Ireland's recovery has reduced unemployment by over 50% here.

Things picking up in Spain, that is for sure.
MTUK1
28-10-2016
Originally Posted by ireland2day:
“Yesterday it hit a six year low falling below 20%
Yes that is still too high but remember Ireland's recovery has reduced unemployment by over 50% here.

Things picking up in Spain, that is for sure.”

Tell that to one of the 50% of youths that are unemployed. And 20% regular unemployment rate is not the sign of a pick up.
MTUK1
28-10-2016
Originally Posted by The Brain:
“Why do people keep saying 'after Brexit'? We haven't even triggered Article 50 yet, let alone left the EU.”

We will.
James_Orton
29-10-2016
Originally Posted by ireland2day:
“Spain well on to its way to recovery.”

Spain is certainly not well on its way. You would be a fool to think that. Unemployment is astronomical, wages down and the people are not sure what the future holds.

They can only dream of an employment rate in the mid 70s like the UK, or low 60s like Ireland. Until they can get the unemployed busy also and that figure close to 5% like the UK, or 7% in Ireland then gdp growth is a bit moot.
speckly
29-10-2016
Originally Posted by James_Orton:
“Spain is certainly not well on its way. You would be a fool to think that. Unemployment is astronomical, wages down and the people are not sure what the future holds.

They can only dream of an employment rate in the mid 70s like the UK”

I agree with you in the main. However, a small technical point: the employment rate today in the UK is more or less the same as it was in the mid 70s. But it's still a lot lower than in Spain and also lower than it has been in the UK for much of the last few decades.

Three centuries of UK economic data:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/resea...ries_v2.3.xlsx
James_Orton
29-10-2016
Originally Posted by speckly:
“I agree with you in the main. However, a small technical point: the employment rate today in the UK is more or less the same as it was in the mid 70s. But it's still a lot lower than in Spain and also lower than it has been in the UK for much of the last few decades.

Three centuries of UK economic data:

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/resea...ries_v2.3.xlsx”

Sorry, I was being a spoon. I mean the employment rate being in the mid 70%. I think it is 76% employment rate at the moment.

Thanks for the lin to the spreadsheet. Most interesting to see the data going back that far.

thank you.
MargMck
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“These estimates are most likely very wrong and inaccurate. I don't believe them. They will be corrected downwards.”

Originally Posted by MargMck:
“9.40am and we already have Post of the Day.

If Aurichie says they will be corrected downwards, they'll probably be corrected upwards.”

Could Christmas get better?
I've won first prize in the aurichie raffle! That's worth another or two.

UK growth following Brexit vote revised up to +0.6%
https://www.theguardian.com/business...-business-live
Thiswillbefun
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“So much for Project Farce.”

aka Brexit.

Which has only just started.
MargMck
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Thiswillbefun:
“aka Brexit.

Which has only just started.”

Whatever. The main thing is the figures were revised up. Here, have another with some ice.
Thiswillbefun
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by MTUK1:
“Tell that to one of the 50% of youths that are unemployed. And 20% regular unemployment rate is not the sign of a pick up.”

The UK has a 34% under-employment rate.

i.e 34% of the work force are in jobs which are zero contract, unpaid internships, below a living wage, unstable temporary jobs or part-time.

This excludes the unemployed and those who are unemployed but can't claim under Tory policy.

That is how the UK keeps the unemployment figures down, and it's nothing to be proud about.
James_Orton
23-12-2016
Under employment. Is this the new term when the narrative doesn't go your way on employment figures.

Perhaps stating what the under employment figure was for the last 20 years might help.
Mark_Jones9
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Thiswillbefun:
“The UK has a 34% under-employment rate.

i.e 34% of the work force are in jobs which are zero contract, unpaid internships, below a living wage, unstable temporary jobs or part-time.

This excludes the unemployed and those who are unemployed but can't claim under Tory policy.

That is how the UK keeps the unemployment figures down, and it's nothing to be proud about.”

Where have you got 34% under-employed from?

Jul-Sep 2016 people aged 16 or over.
Total Employment 31,880,000
Underemployment 2,688,000. 8.4%
Overemployment 3,275,000. 10.3%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentand...mploymentemp16
MTUK1
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Thiswillbefun:
“The UK has a 34% under-employment rate.

i.e 34% of the work force are in jobs which are zero contract, unpaid internships, below a living wage, unstable temporary jobs or part-time.

This excludes the unemployed and those who are unemployed but can't claim under Tory policy.

That is how the UK keeps the unemployment figures down, and it's nothing to be proud about.”

I never said it was, you did. But come on, our figures are nowhere near as bad as Spain or Greece. And it's laughable to pretend they are.
mungobrush
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Mark_Jones9:
“Where have you got 34% under-employed from?

Jul-Sep 2016 people aged 16 or over.
Total Employment 31,880,000
Underemployment 2,688,000. 8.4%
Overemployment 3,275,000. 10.3%
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentand...mploymentemp16”

I think that he may have got it from Corbyn's box of lies
Like trains being "ram packed"
And this week - the UK being the 6th richest country in the world (we are actually the 27th)
Thiswillbefun
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“Whatever. The main thing is the figures were revised up. Here, have another with some ice.”

No, the main points are:

1. FTSE 100 (predominantly overseas businesses) rises - benefiting from a weak UK.

2. The pound falls back. Indications of the post Trump boost fading and sterling returning to it's new weakened position.

3. A 0.5% growth, falling from 0.7%. Although this always fluctuates for multiple reasons, fall in sterling has led to an increase in demand within the service sector. This has also been assisted by the BoE's Quantitative Easing and the cut in corporation tax, which have added to the population's tax burden.

4. While the services sector grew by 0.8pc in the third quarter, the other major sectors all contracted – construction fell by 1.4pc, agriculture by 0.7pc, and production - which includes industries such as mining and waste management - by 0.4pc. Within that, manufacturing output dropped by 1pc.

i.e take out the services sector, which is London-centric, and the rest of the economy really is crashing.

5. The article states that the -0.1% was the "worst case scenario".

6. Further down the page:

Trading software group Fidessa enjoyed its best day in eight months after it said the post-referendum pound plunge will boost its full-year results.

With more than 60pc of its revenue coming from outside of Europe, analysts at Jefferies flagged that the currency benefit to full-year revenue growth has now increased to 7.2pc due to the pound weakness.
Resonance
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Thiswillbefun:
“No, the main points are:

1. FTSE 100 (predominantly overseas businesses) rises - benefiting from a weak UK.

2. The pound falls back. Indications of the post Trump boost fading and sterling returning to it's new weakened position.

3. A 0.5% growth, falling from 0.7%. Although this always fluctuates for multiple reasons, fall in sterling has led to an increase in demand within the service sector. This has also been assisted by the BoE's Quantitative Easing and the cut in corporation tax, which have added to the population's tax burden.

4. While the services sector grew by 0.8pc in the third quarter, the other major sectors all contracted – construction fell by 1.4pc, agriculture by 0.7pc, and production - which includes industries such as mining and waste management - by 0.4pc. Within that, manufacturing output dropped by 1pc.

i.e take out the services sector, which is London-centric, and the rest of the economy really is crashing.

5. The article states that the -0.1% was the "worst case scenario".

6. Further down the page:

Trading software group Fidessa enjoyed its best day in eight months after it said the post-referendum pound plunge will boost its full-year results.

With more than 60pc of its revenue coming from outside of Europe, analysts at Jefferies flagged that the currency benefit to full-year revenue growth has now increased to 7.2pc due to the pound weakness.
”

When the FTSE 100 dropped the day after the referendum we were told that it was Armageddon and that the country was poorer because of it. So which is it?
Thiswillbefun
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by mungobrush:
“I think that he may have got it from Corbyn's box of lies
Like trains being "ram packed"
And this week - the UK being the 6th richest country in the world (we are actually the 27th)”

deleted
OLD HIPPY GUY
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by MTUK1:
“We will.”

No one doubts we will, but that still doesn't alter the fact that we haven't yet, but it doesn't seem to stop people from the future travelling back in time to make threads about what has happened since we did leave .
Thiswillbefun
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Resonance:
“When the FTSE 100 dropped the day after the referendum we were told that it was Armageddon and that the country was poorer because of it. So which is it?”

It depends of the geography of the individual businesses.

The country is poorer due to Brexit.

An international conglomerate which trades across the planet won't suffer and will be able to restructure to take advantage of Brexit.
Alongside this, they will take advantage of the additional corporation tax cuts & the "sweetener" deals our governments are giving them.
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