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GDP surges ahead and beats all expectations in quarter after brexit
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Thiswillbefun
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by James_Orton:
“Under employment. Is this the new term when the narrative doesn't go your way on employment figures.

Perhaps stating what the under employment figure was for the last 20 years might help.”

I didn't actually know this, but there are sites that do keep these figures by breaking down into separate "under-employment" types for America.

The comprehensive U-6 unemployment rate adjusts the official rate by adding marginally attached workers and workers forced to work part time for economic reasons to the officially unemployed. To find the U-6 rate the BLS takes that higher unemployment count and divides it by the official civilian labor force plus the number of marginally attached workers. (No adjustment is necessary for forced part-time workers since they are already counted in the official labor force as employed workers.)

http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archi...709miller.html

And this for the UK:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...-s-record-jobs
Mark_Jones9
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Thiswillbefun:
“No, the main points are:

1. FTSE 100 (predominantly overseas businesses) rises - benefiting from a weak UK.

2. The pound falls back. Indications of the post Trump boost fading and sterling returning to it's new weakened position.

3. A 0.5% growth, falling from 0.7%. Although this always fluctuates for multiple reasons, fall in sterling has led to an increase in demand within the service sector. This has also been assisted by the BoE's Quantitative Easing and the cut in corporation tax, which have added to the population's tax burden.

4. While the services sector grew by 0.8pc in the third quarter, the other major sectors all contracted – construction fell by 1.4pc, agriculture by 0.7pc, and production - which includes industries such as mining and waste management - by 0.4pc. Within that, manufacturing output dropped by 1pc.

i.e take out the services sector, which is London-centric, and the rest of the economy really is crashing.

5. The article states that the -0.1% was the "worst case scenario".

6. Further down the page:

Trading software group Fidessa enjoyed its best day in eight months after it said the post-referendum pound plunge will boost its full-year results.

With more than 60pc of its revenue coming from outside of Europe, analysts at Jefferies flagged that the currency benefit to full-year revenue growth has now increased to 7.2pc due to the pound weakness.
”

The immediate effect of a fall in currency is higher costs of imports that hits GDP as companies make less profit as their raw materials increase in price. The long-term effect is increasing exports and less imports that boosts GDP.

Also UK GDP this year is better than last year
2015 Q2 0.5 Q3 0.3
2016 Q2 0.7 Q3 0.5
allaorta
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Thiswillbefun:
“The UK has a 34% under-employment rate.

i.e 34% of the work force are in jobs which are zero contract, unpaid internships, below a living wage, unstable temporary jobs or part-time.

This excludes the unemployed and those who are unemployed but can't claim under Tory policy.

That is how the UK keeps the unemployment figures down, and it's nothing to be proud about.”

The majority of people on zero hour contracts want it that way. The figure I've read is 60%, not a huge majority according to some but bigger than the majority who voted for Brexit.
Richievilla
23-12-2016
I will not get involved in the Brexit issue as we have not left and it will probably be three years or so before I can form an informed opinion as to whether it is beneficial, but the rounding up to 0.6% is obviously positive news. That said, the full picture is more mixed with the ONS saying that first quarter growth was actually 0.3%, not 0.4%, and they revised down estimated second quarter growth from 0.7% to 0.6%. Also, the third quarter figures were helped by "robust consumer demand", which may be hit next year with a likely rise in inflation. Also, the ONS confirmed a significant increase in the current account deficit, albeit lower than market expectations. So overall, some positive areas and others that are not so positive equal a mixed bag that lead me to be neither ecstatic nor despondent. I will leave that to the Brexit extremists from either side.
bingbong
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by allaorta:
“The majority of people on zero hour contracts want it that way. The figure I've read is 60%, not a huge majority according to some but bigger than the majority who voted for Brexit.”

I really don't think that's true, every 20 something i speak to on ZH wishes they had more certainty. You may get some young students who don't understand that being a part-time worker is already flexible you don't need a ZH contract to have flexible hours.

ZHC is a form of worker exploitation that i thought this country had done away with decades ago, Just like our membership of the EU, it benefits a section of society at the expense of the country as a whole.
Mr Oleo Strut
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by James_Orton:
“Looks like the UK economy is in good shape. With these figures we will grow much faster than our biggest competitors in the G7.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...figures-to-sh/”

Short-term profiteering. Brexit has hardly started yet. Stop deceiving yourself.
MTUK1
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Mr Oleo Strut:
“Short-term profiteering. Brexit has hardly started yet. Stop deceiving yourself.”

You are a laughable parody these days.
Jayceef1
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“9.40am and we already have Post of the Day.

If Aurichie says they will be corrected downwards, they'll probably be corrected upwards.”

And they have been corrected upwards. Where is Aurichie when you need him.
MTUK1
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Thiswillbefun:
“It depends of the geography of the individual businesses.

The country is poorer due to Brexit.

An international conglomerate which trades across the planet won't suffer and will be able to restructure to take advantage of Brexit.
Alongside this, they will take advantage of the additional corporation tax cuts & the "sweetener" deals our governments are giving them.”

How is the country poorer due to Brexit?
MargMck
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by Jayceef1:
“And they have been corrected upwards. Where is Aurichie when you need him. ”

Have no idea. Isn't it terrible that the first thing I thought of when the rounding up announcement came today was of aurichie's declaration back in Oct that he didn't believe the figures and they would be rounded down.
He's like an anti-matter icon for Brexit so I always have a spring in my step when one of his doom-laden pronouncements arrives.
Jayceef1
23-12-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“Have no idea. Isn't it terrible that the first thing I thought of when the rounding up announcement came today was of aurichie's declaration back in Oct that he didn't believe the figures and they would be rounded down.
He's like an anti-matter icon for Brexit so I always have a spring in my step when one of his doom-laden pronouncements arrives.”

He must be burrowing away trying to find "that" poll saying 90% now wanted to remain. I fear he may be gone for some time.
Mr Oleo Strut
24-12-2016
Originally Posted by MTUK1:
“You are a laughable parody these days.”

Face the facts. Brexit is becoming a total disaster. Society is split and the UK is changing into Little England. Prejudice and jingoism are spreading and it is not pleasant. Nothing to laugh about.
allaorta
24-12-2016
Originally Posted by Mr Oleo Strut:
“Face the facts. Brexit is becoming a total disaster. Society is split and the UK is changing into Little England. Prejudice and jingoism are spreading and it is not pleasant. Nothing to laugh about.”

I agree, it's about 75/25% in favour of those who want leaving to be carried out.
onecitizen
24-12-2016
If being in the EU is the panacea for all economic problems how is it that so many countries inside the EU are struggling badly ?
onecitizen
24-12-2016
Originally Posted by Mr Oleo Strut:
“Face the facts. Brexit is becoming a total disaster. Society is split and the UK is changing into Little England. Prejudice and jingoism are spreading and it is not pleasant. Nothing to laugh about.”

Italy, France, Netherlands Germany the right is on rise across those countries and many more, nowt to do with Brexit.
Your argument is sunk.
jmclaugh
24-12-2016
Originally Posted by Jayceef1:
“And they have been corrected upwards. Where is Aurichie when you need him. ”

Amusingly the growth figure for the first quarter has been revised down from 0.4% to 0.3% and the second quarter figure down from 0.7 to 0.6% while the first post-Brexit period, quarter 3, was revised up from 0.5% to 0.6%. aurichie must be crestfallen.
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