An example would be interesting davegold, although not sure how you will overcome the posting limitations of DS to post 24 permutations of voting patterns! 
The Vote - Some Help to Maximize Your Votes
4 of 4
I don't know why so many people are getting annoyed about this topic. Most odd. It's only a bit of stats geekery. Not usually the sort of thing that gets people's dander up. Mostly the sort of thing that gets ignored.
Look. Regardless of the maths and whether or not is worth doing calculations before voting, the OP has a good general point.
In the early stages when there are many contestants, a vote for those at the top of the leaderboard, and perhaps second or third too, is not a particularly effective vote. Since at this early point in the competition few viewers have one single favourite, the most effective way to vote is to choose the lowest-scored contestant you like and vote to save from the dance off.
I think a great many viewers already do this. I certainly do and always have. So what's the controversy? You might be the type of person who likes to vote for your favourite dance/person on the night. If so - fine, carry on. But you might be the type of person who likes to maximise the value of your vote. If so - also fine, read the geekery and work out which vote for which contestant will give you maximum value.
Look. Regardless of the maths and whether or not is worth doing calculations before voting, the OP has a good general point.
In the early stages when there are many contestants, a vote for those at the top of the leaderboard, and perhaps second or third too, is not a particularly effective vote. Since at this early point in the competition few viewers have one single favourite, the most effective way to vote is to choose the lowest-scored contestant you like and vote to save from the dance off.
I think a great many viewers already do this. I certainly do and always have. So what's the controversy? You might be the type of person who likes to vote for your favourite dance/person on the night. If so - fine, carry on. But you might be the type of person who likes to maximise the value of your vote. If so - also fine, read the geekery and work out which vote for which contestant will give you maximum value.
Originally Posted by Ann_Dancer:
“I don't understand the aggression either.
I certainly don't understand people calling the OP names. If people disagree, they can happily ignore as the OP is saying nothing hurtful about anyone. As threads go, this is relatively inoffensive.”
“I don't understand the aggression either.
I certainly don't understand people calling the OP names. If people disagree, they can happily ignore as the OP is saying nothing hurtful about anyone. As threads go, this is relatively inoffensive.”
Thank you Ann for the kind words.
Originally Posted by gorlagon:
“In the early stages when there are many contestants, a vote for those at the top of the leaderboard, and perhaps second or third too, is not a particularly effective vote. Since at this early point in the competition few viewers have one single favourite, the most effective way to vote is to choose the lowest-scored contestant you like and vote to save from the dance off.”
“In the early stages when there are many contestants, a vote for those at the top of the leaderboard, and perhaps second or third too, is not a particularly effective vote. Since at this early point in the competition few viewers have one single favourite, the most effective way to vote is to choose the lowest-scored contestant you like and vote to save from the dance off.”
Also, thanks to you gorlagon. This was the spirit in which this post was made.
Originally Posted by davegold:
“I'll put up some of my own figures in way of contrast. In the semi-finals there will be 4 couples.”
“I'll put up some of my own figures in way of contrast. In the semi-finals there will be 4 couples.”
Thanks for the comment davegold. I believe my interpretation is correct. I may or may not be wrong about this, but I thought last year the semi-final was 5 couples. (I was away and missed the semi final and final last year.) I am not sure if there will be 5 couples this year due to Will's withdrawal. With unique judge ranking the probabilities are:
5-Couple Week
-------------
Judge Rank: A (first), B, C, D and E (last)
Percentage Chance in Dance Off (fair 40.0%): A = 10.8%, B = 25.0%, C = 40.0%, D = 55.0%, E = 69.1%.
Percentage Chance Eliminated (fair 20.0%): A = 0.0%, B = 0.8%, C = 5.8%, D = 24.1%, E = 69.1%.
Percentage chance of one of judge bottom TWO eliminated: 93.4%
Note, due to the low numbers I have given the elimination percentage for just the bottom 2; namely 93.4%.
This is the most dangerous week for the public favourite being eliminated. Obviously, if you are right and this year it will be a 4 couple semi final, then the probability of the public favourite leaving the show in the semis will be a lot higher.
As for draws in the semis, it could happen. It did with Tom Chambers under the old draw scoring system which made it impossible for him to avoid the dance off. That is why they had to cancel the vote (or something) that year.
However, with all the possible scoring scenarios, surely the judges can uniquely rank a semi final?
Sorry, but I vote for who I want to vote for - who entertained me and who I thought danced well regardless of where they are n the leader board. Therefore my votes are not "wasted" because they go to who I want them to go to. And it's MY vote to do with what I want.
And if someone tries to tell me to vote for x because of y, then I'm likely to vote the opposite - no-one has the right to tell anyone else how to vote.
In any case, it doesn't matter how anyone votes. It won't affect our lives in any way - it's a light-hearted Saturday night entertainment TV programme and doesn't need any heavy maths to ruin the experience.
And I do think it's rather pretentious for someone to sudden;y decide to tell other viewers what they should consider when voting, when the question hasn't been asked.
And if someone tries to tell me to vote for x because of y, then I'm likely to vote the opposite - no-one has the right to tell anyone else how to vote.
In any case, it doesn't matter how anyone votes. It won't affect our lives in any way - it's a light-hearted Saturday night entertainment TV programme and doesn't need any heavy maths to ruin the experience.
And I do think it's rather pretentious for someone to sudden;y decide to tell other viewers what they should consider when voting, when the question hasn't been asked.
A general comment.
It's a sad old world when someone can't start a mathematical thread about the voting without getting insults.
It's a sad old world when someone can't start a mathematical thread about the voting without getting insults.
Originally Posted by gorlagon:
“In the early stages when there are many contestants, a vote for those at the top of the leaderboard, and perhaps second or third too, is not a particularly effective vote.
Since at this early point in the competition few viewers have one single favourite, the most effective way to vote is to choose the lowest-scored contestant you like and vote to save from the dance off.”
“In the early stages when there are many contestants, a vote for those at the top of the leaderboard, and perhaps second or third too, is not a particularly effective vote.
Since at this early point in the competition few viewers have one single favourite, the most effective way to vote is to choose the lowest-scored contestant you like and vote to save from the dance off.”
All true. However the OP still seems to be operating under the impression that votes can be "wasted", which was what my original comment related to.
If someone's choosing to vote for their favourite couple irrespective of where they are in the rankings then not only is it 1) their right to do so, but also 2) not a wasted vote because they're doing what they're told to do by the programme itself - i.e. vote for their favourite.
Originally Posted by Cadiva:
“If someone's choosing to vote for their favourite couple irrespective of where they are in the rankings then not only is it 1) their right to do so, but also 2) not a wasted vote because they're doing what they're told to do by the programme itself - i.e. vote for their favourite.”
“If someone's choosing to vote for their favourite couple irrespective of where they are in the rankings then not only is it 1) their right to do so, but also 2) not a wasted vote because they're doing what they're told to do by the programme itself - i.e. vote for their favourite.”
1. I agree, if they are voting for just one contestant and they do not mind that they may be voting for someone that is already safe, contrary to what is being said on the show.
2. I disagree, as I have already explained. Consider the older weeks when Ore and Ed were at the top and bottom of the leaderboard. If a person votes for Ore and also votes for Ed, there is a real possibility they are wasting both their votes. Obviously, their vote will have literally no effect on Ore avoiding the dance off because they were safe anyway. The problem really manifests itself with the vote for Ed. Ed has a real good chance of being in the dance off if they are a public middle ranking couple (or even higher). If that vote they also cast for the already safe Ore meant Ore bumped Ed out of that all important and needed middle ranking position, then Ed could leave because that member of the public had voted for BOTH Ed and Ore. That is one of the crazy things about this voting system. So multi voting can actually be a total waste of votes.
Originally Posted by B_OR:
“1. I agree, if they are voting for just one contestant and they do not mind that they may be voting for someone that is already safe, contrary to what is being said on the show.
2. I disagree, as I have already explained. Consider the older weeks when Ore and Ed were at the top and bottom of the leaderboard. If a person votes for Ore and also votes for Ed, there is a real possibility they are wasting both their votes. Obviously, their vote will have literally no effect on Ore avoiding the dance off because they were safe anyway. The problem really manifests itself with the vote for Ed. Ed has a real good chance of being in the dance off if they are a public middle ranking couple (or even higher). If that vote they also cast for the already safe Ore meant Ore bumped Ed out of that all important and needed middle ranking position, then Ed could leave because that member of the public had voted for BOTH Ed and Ore. That is one of the crazy things about this voting system. So multi voting can actually be a total waste of votes.”
“1. I agree, if they are voting for just one contestant and they do not mind that they may be voting for someone that is already safe, contrary to what is being said on the show.
2. I disagree, as I have already explained. Consider the older weeks when Ore and Ed were at the top and bottom of the leaderboard. If a person votes for Ore and also votes for Ed, there is a real possibility they are wasting both their votes. Obviously, their vote will have literally no effect on Ore avoiding the dance off because they were safe anyway. The problem really manifests itself with the vote for Ed. Ed has a real good chance of being in the dance off if they are a public middle ranking couple (or even higher). If that vote they also cast for the already safe Ore meant Ore bumped Ed out of that all important and needed middle ranking position, then Ed could leave because that member of the public had voted for BOTH Ed and Ore. That is one of the crazy things about this voting system. So multi voting can actually be a total waste of votes.”
And, as I have said repeatedly now, there is no such thing as a "wasted vote" irrespective of how mathematical you keep trying to make it if the person doing the voting is voting for their favourite contestants. It's their money if they phone vote and it's their time if they just use the three free online votes.
Your whole premise rests purely on the fact you personally consider it to be a wasted vote simply because the people they vote for could still leave the show or be in a position where they are 'safe'.
This is very thorough and methodical. Good effort, but I suspect most just stick with some of their favs every week regardless of their place on the board or what judges say. Those that vote on dances may take close inspection of this though, unless figures and percentages aren't a draw.
I think part of the problem with this thread is that anyone who would be interested enough to read and take on board the OP's lengthy postings will probably be arithmetically savvy enough to have pretty much worked out the statistical implications anyway.
Originally Posted by Cadiva:
“Because they're voting for their favourite, it's fairly elementary.”
“Because they're voting for their favourite, it's fairly elementary.”
If you've only got one favourite, then yes.
There's many people in the 'who did you vote for?' threads who state every week they're worried for X being in the middle of the leaderboard, or near the bottom, but then say they voted for X and Y, who happens to be top of the leaderboard.
Just seems pointless. Top of the leaderboard is guaranteed to get through - the leaderboard would have to be turned on its head in the voting for them to be in the bottom two which is very, very unlikely to happen, and even if it did, the judges would save them, so if you have two or three favourites, I don't really understand why you'd risk your other favourites in order to "save" someone who doesn't need saving.
Before more toys are thrown out of the pram, I'm not trying to tell anyone how to vote - just from a tactical point of view, I can't grasp why anyone would bother voting for the person at the top of the leaderboard - whoever that might be - IF they have other partnerships they enjoy. If it's the only partnership you enjoy, I get it, but otherwise it's better to throw all your votes on your other favourite(s).
Personally, I vote tactically all the time. If I have two or three favourites, I just pile my votes onto the one with the lowest score as they're more likely to leave if they're in a dance off.
It's interesting that not everyone thinks that way, though; although I don't understand why so many people are so defensive about it on this thread.
Originally Posted by Reserved:
“It's interesting that not everyone thinks that way, though; although I don't understand why so many people are so defensive about it on this thread.”
“It's interesting that not everyone thinks that way, though; although I don't understand why so many people are so defensive about it on this thread.”
While I don't think the vast majority of people posting have been defensive about it, I can see why people could be irritated by being told they're "wasting" their vote.
I find statistical analysis fascinating. I am a sad bint with no life (no comments please).
However, I can understand why people vote for those who are seemingly safe and even those who are top of the leaderboard and I would never consider it a "wasted" vote.
Yes, those high up are, by virtue of the dance off, pretty much guaranteed to stay. However, I'd wager that all of those voting don't want to see their favourite (or one of such) have to go through a dance off. Even though we've seen that it isn't necessarily the death knell to a celeb's hopes, it's a nasty knock for confidence.
We've seen a drop (twice) from joint second on the leaderboard to bottom two even with ten (or more) couples left. Although nobody has done a full leaderboard plunge, it doesn't mean it can't happen.
Take last night. I saw several posts saying that Laura was safe and that there was no way she could end up in the dance off. Now that's a very likely scenario but not certain, particularly due to ties. All it would take is for Laura to finish bottom with the public, Anastacia to finish just above her and all the guys to take the top five positions. In any order. If I were voting for Laura, I'd consider that scenario quite possible. Not likely but certainly possible. Yes, there's still no way that she would leave but I wouldn't want my favourite landing in the dance off if I could help it.
However, I can understand why people vote for those who are seemingly safe and even those who are top of the leaderboard and I would never consider it a "wasted" vote.
Yes, those high up are, by virtue of the dance off, pretty much guaranteed to stay. However, I'd wager that all of those voting don't want to see their favourite (or one of such) have to go through a dance off. Even though we've seen that it isn't necessarily the death knell to a celeb's hopes, it's a nasty knock for confidence.
We've seen a drop (twice) from joint second on the leaderboard to bottom two even with ten (or more) couples left. Although nobody has done a full leaderboard plunge, it doesn't mean it can't happen.
Take last night. I saw several posts saying that Laura was safe and that there was no way she could end up in the dance off. Now that's a very likely scenario but not certain, particularly due to ties. All it would take is for Laura to finish bottom with the public, Anastacia to finish just above her and all the guys to take the top five positions. In any order. If I were voting for Laura, I'd consider that scenario quite possible. Not likely but certainly possible. Yes, there's still no way that she would leave but I wouldn't want my favourite landing in the dance off if I could help it.
Originally Posted by Cadiva:
“And, as I have said repeatedly now, there is no such thing as a "wasted vote" irrespective of how mathematical you keep trying to make it if the person doing the voting is voting for their favourite contestants. It's their money if they phone vote and it's their time if they just use the three free online votes.
Your whole premise rests purely on the fact you personally consider it to be a wasted vote simply because the people they vote for could still leave the show or be in a position where they are 'safe'.”
“And, as I have said repeatedly now, there is no such thing as a "wasted vote" irrespective of how mathematical you keep trying to make it if the person doing the voting is voting for their favourite contestants. It's their money if they phone vote and it's their time if they just use the three free online votes.
Your whole premise rests purely on the fact you personally consider it to be a wasted vote simply because the people they vote for could still leave the show or be in a position where they are 'safe'.”
One thing in these calculations, is if a celebrity hits the dance off and probability states they will be saved, this could create a negative perception of that couple, which if the judges start over marking them in an attempt to keep them out of the dance off, could backfire even more.
Originally Posted by Janet43:
“Sorry, but I vote for who I want to vote for - who entertained me and who I thought danced well regardless of where they are n the leader board. Therefore my votes are not "wasted" because they go to who I want them to go to. And it's MY vote to do with what I want.
And if someone tries to tell me to vote for x because of y, then I'm likely to vote the opposite - no-one has the right to tell anyone else how to vote.
In any case, it doesn't matter how anyone votes. It won't affect our lives in any way - it's a light-hearted Saturday night entertainment TV programme and doesn't need any heavy maths to ruin the experience.
And I do think it's rather pretentious for someone to sudden;y decide to tell other viewers what they should consider when voting, when the question hasn't been asked.”
“Sorry, but I vote for who I want to vote for - who entertained me and who I thought danced well regardless of where they are n the leader board. Therefore my votes are not "wasted" because they go to who I want them to go to. And it's MY vote to do with what I want.
And if someone tries to tell me to vote for x because of y, then I'm likely to vote the opposite - no-one has the right to tell anyone else how to vote.
In any case, it doesn't matter how anyone votes. It won't affect our lives in any way - it's a light-hearted Saturday night entertainment TV programme and doesn't need any heavy maths to ruin the experience.
And I do think it's rather pretentious for someone to sudden;y decide to tell other viewers what they should consider when voting, when the question hasn't been asked.”
My sentiments exactly!
Originally Posted by Cadiva:
“And, as I have said repeatedly now, there is no such thing as a "wasted vote" irrespective of how mathematical you keep trying to make it if the person doing the voting is voting for their favourite contestants. It's their money if they phone vote and it's their time if they just use the three free online votes.
Your whole premise rests purely on the fact you personally consider it to be a wasted vote simply because the people they vote for could still leave the show or be in a position where they are 'safe'.”
“And, as I have said repeatedly now, there is no such thing as a "wasted vote" irrespective of how mathematical you keep trying to make it if the person doing the voting is voting for their favourite contestants. It's their money if they phone vote and it's their time if they just use the three free online votes.
Your whole premise rests purely on the fact you personally consider it to be a wasted vote simply because the people they vote for could still leave the show or be in a position where they are 'safe'.”
Agreed. What the OP considers wasted is totally irrelevant. It is up to each and every one of us to vote how we wish, without influence or bullying from some sort of mathematician.
Originally Posted by Cadiva:
“While I don't think the vast majority of people posting have been defensive about it, I can see why people could be irritated by being told they're "wasting" their vote.”
“While I don't think the vast majority of people posting have been defensive about it, I can see why people could be irritated by being told they're "wasting" their vote.”
See above. Agreed.
So are we all able to agree that we are all allowed to vote for whoever we want, for whatever reason we want?
I think most people are taking this a bit personally really. I don't see the problem with the post and found it very interesting.
The OP has got to call 'wasted votes' something. If they say something like 'votes which are in all probability unlikely to have any effect on the final result' it's going to take forever isn't it?
We all have different ways of voting, there's no right or wrong way, whichever way enhances your experience of watching the programme is the right way for you. The OP does it in this way and why not? They shared it in case other people have similar ideas of how they want to vote but don't have the time or the maths skills to work it out themselves. If the way is not right for you then ignore it and go read another thread.
Thanks B_OR for taking the time to post this.
The OP has got to call 'wasted votes' something. If they say something like 'votes which are in all probability unlikely to have any effect on the final result' it's going to take forever isn't it?
We all have different ways of voting, there's no right or wrong way, whichever way enhances your experience of watching the programme is the right way for you. The OP does it in this way and why not? They shared it in case other people have similar ideas of how they want to vote but don't have the time or the maths skills to work it out themselves. If the way is not right for you then ignore it and go read another thread.
Thanks B_OR for taking the time to post this.
OP, I appreciated what you posted and even if people didn't want to follow your advice, they could have been courteous about it. It was interesting. I can only assume a few maths gremlins took over the keyboards.
4 of 4
