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Old 08-11-2016, 11:25
little-monster
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It's that time of year where all the oscar buzz begins to build day by day

Let's discuss
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Old 08-11-2016, 11:29
JCR
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gold derby dotcom currently has the top 6 for best picture as-

La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Fences, Loving & Silence.

They're still all long odds so it's early days.

I personally doubt Silence will get a best picture nomination though. Though the producers are trying to sell that it's better than Raging Bull and Goodfellas.
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Old 08-11-2016, 11:49
little-monster
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From what i have come across, this is what i know personally. Remember this could change

Viola davis seems to be the frontrunner for Best supporting actress for her work in Fences. A role she won a tony for on broadway about 6 years ago. But for the tony, she won best leading actress. She was originally looking to be the frontrunner for best actress but it was confirmed last week she will now be classed and submitted as supporting.

Michelle Williams has been predicted as a dark horse to rival Viola Davis for her work in Manchester by the sea. Other contenders include Felicity Jones, Nicole Kidman, Naomi Harris and Aja Naomi King.

Emma Stone, Natalie Portman, Amy Adams, Ruth Negga and Annette Bening seem to be main contenders for best actress at the moment.

Casey Affleck, Denzel Washington, Ryan Gosling, Tom Hanks and Joel Edgerton seem to be the main contenders for best actor at the moment.

The best supporting actor field doesn't seem quite clear. Although the main names that keeps cropping up is Mahershala Ali and Michael Shannon.

Animated Feature is looking to be Zootopia. Finding Dory, Moana, The Red Turtle and Kubo and The Two Strings at the moment
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Old 08-11-2016, 17:13
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Amy Adams is an Academy favourite, and she might get a "paid their dues" Best Actress win, for Nocturnal Animals. Her co-stars, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon and Aaron Taylor Johnson could also be in with a chance of nominations.

Natalie Portman could bag a second best Actress nod (and possible win)

Heard good things about Moonlight; Naomie Harris could get nominated, along with the male leads.

Also hearing good things about La La Land; Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone are set for nominations

Hugh Grant might get nominated for Best Supporting Actor, for his role in Florence Foster Jenkins (although I'll stifle yawns if its main star, Meryl Streep, bags another nomination, which would be her 20th)
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Old 08-11-2016, 19:50
dave2702
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Heard good things about Moonlight; Naomie Harris could get nominated, along with the male leads.
Also in Moonlight's favour is the collapse of Birth of a Nation, the Academy will be desperate to avoid the #sowhite furore again

It did well in the Toronto Film Festival and is going to be a strong contender
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Old 08-11-2016, 20:15
little-monster
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The thought of aaron taylor johnson and the word oscar nomination in the same sentence makes me feel ill. Eeek.

Natalie Portman is such an inconsistent actress, that i would be disappointed to see her win a second oscar even if she is bloody good. She's no Jodie Foster, Cate Blanchett, Maggie Smith and various other actresses who actually did earn and deserve both their multiple oscars. The main contender seems to be Emma Stone. Unless they give it to Amy Adams and Annette Bening, because both have been nominated many times and they like to reward actors who are well overdue for an oscar. Leonardo Dicaprio and Kate Winslet both being prime examples in recent years.
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Old 08-11-2016, 23:26
Mrs Checks
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Emma Stone has already started campaigning hard.

She's had special screenings of La La Land for critics and SAG/academy members (so hitting more than one target at once), where she's been introduced on stage by Jennifer Lawrence and Eddie Redmayne.

Everything I've read so far says she's the one to beat.
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Old 09-11-2016, 02:11
dodrade
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Emma Stone has already started campaigning hard.

She's had special screenings of La La Land for critics and SAG/academy members (so hitting more than one target at once), where she's been introduced on stage by Jennifer Lawrence and Eddie Redmayne.

Everything I've read so far says she's the one to beat.
I'd like to see her win but the academy loves biopics so I wouldn't be surprised to see Portman win again.
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Old 09-11-2016, 03:37
little-monster
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Well it is all about campaigning at the end of the day. So Emma is getting ahead while she can.

I have personally never really had her down as an oscar worthy actress. I think she's an average actress at best. So i am eager to see whether she really is good in La La Land.
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Old 10-11-2016, 12:17
dodrade
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Well it is all about campaigning at the end of the day. So Emma is getting ahead while she can.
Mark Rylance won without campaigning, although I suspect that was partly because his biggest rival (Sylvester Stallone) had made too many enemies over the years to win, just as Mickey Rourke did.
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Old 10-11-2016, 12:23
little-monster
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Mark Rylance won without campaigning, although I suspect that was partly because his biggest rival (Sylvester Stallone) had made too many enemies over the years to win, just as Mickey Rourke did.
Indeed, but that is a rare example though.
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Old 10-11-2016, 12:28
JCR
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Mark Rylance won without campaigning, although I suspect that was partly because his biggest rival (Sylvester Stallone) had made too many enemies over the years to win, just as Mickey Rourke did.
Stallone didn't thank the producer whose idea Creed was & who talked him into doing it when Stallone won the Golden Globe, people online didn't think it was likely Stallone would win the Oscar in the weeks leading up to the show as he was perceived as arrogant.
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Old 10-11-2016, 12:33
little-monster
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Stallone came across to me as desperate for that oscar. As if he felt because he had been in the acting game for so long, he instantly deserved to win it. And his brother's reaction on twitter when Mark Rylance won, well that said it all.
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Old 12-11-2016, 08:49
Sherlock_Holmes
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Amy Adams is an Academy favourite, and she might get a "paid their dues" Best Actress win, for Nocturnal Animals. Her co-stars, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon and Aaron Taylor Johnson could also be in with a chance of nominations.

Natalie Portman could bag a second best Actress nod (and possible win)

Heard good things about Moonlight; Naomie Harris could get nominated, along with the male leads.

Also hearing good things about La La Land; Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone are set for nominations

Hugh Grant might get nominated for Best Supporting Actor, for his role in Florence Foster Jenkins (although I'll stifle yawns if its main star, Meryl Streep, bags another nomination, which would be her 20th)
Adams is not getting in for Nocturnal Animals, in fact it might hurt her chances for Arrival (she is being submitted in lead for both).

Just hope that Ruth Negga gets in, not only for oscarssowhite, but also because she is a great actress and it would be fun to see a newbie amongst the veteran nominees there. And it's not like any of the other actresses need the nom for their career.
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Old 12-11-2016, 09:51
mintchocchip
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Adams is not getting in for Nocturnal Animals, in fact it might hurt her chances for Arrival (she is being submitted in lead for both).

Just hope that Ruth Negga gets in, not only for oscarssowhite, but also because she is a great actress and it would be fun to see a newbie amongst the veteran nominees there. And it's not like any of the other actresses need the nom for their career.
No I agree, she's good in it but I don't think her role in Nocturnal Animals required a huge amount. I haven't seen Arrival yet.

What would Ruth Negga be up for? It's nice to see someone from Misfits doing so well!
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Old 12-11-2016, 09:53
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No I agree, she's good in it but I don't think her role in Nocturnal Animals required a huge amount. I haven't seen Arrival yet.

What would Ruth Negga be up for? It's nice to see someone from Misfits doing so well!
Loving where she plays one half of the interracial couple that took the state of Virginia to court over its anti-miscegenation laws. Joel Edgerton who plays the other half of the couple is possibly in line for a nomination too.
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Old 12-11-2016, 09:55
mintchocchip
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Loving where she plays one half of the interracial couple that took the state of Virginia to court over its anti-miscegenation laws. Joel Edgerton who plays the other half of the couple is possibly in line for a nomination too.
Thanks!
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Old 12-11-2016, 10:58
little-monster
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It is great seeing someone like Ruth Negga doing well

I enjoyed her work in the Shirley Bassey biopic, Agents of shield and Preacher.
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Old 13-11-2016, 11:34
dee123
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I too keep hearing excellent things about Moonlight and let's be honest here, if the Academy is feeling in a political mood which considering what has happened it just might be, Monnlight's themes might make the film get a push it normally wouldn't.

Is that fair to other films? No. but the Oscars have never been fair.
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Old 13-11-2016, 12:23
Muttley76
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I would put La La Land in pole position early days, it is a terrific film and it's also the kind of the film that Hollywood loves because it's about Hollywood.
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Old 13-11-2016, 15:09
dodrade
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I too keep hearing excellent things about Moonlight and let's be honest here, if the Academy is feeling in a political mood which considering what has happened it just might be, Monnlight's themes might make the film get a push it normally wouldn't.

Is that fair to other films? No. but the Oscars have never been fair.
It probably does, particularly as the Nate Parker controversy seems to have wrecked Birth of a Nation's chances.
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Old 13-11-2016, 16:13
Muttley76
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It probably does, particularly as the Nate Parker controversy seems to have wrecked Birth of a Nation's chances.

Birth of a Nation is a pretty mediocre film, imho. I feel it benefited a lot at Sundance from the timing of it showing coinciding with the Oscar nomination controversy, and that this had a lot to do with it how it was received there.

Parker's performance is good, but rather self-indulgent. It feels quite lopsided, with very little of the content of the film being about the actual slave revolt.

It does nothing that hasn't been much better done before.

I don't think it was a film that deserved consideration based on it's own merits, regardless of the subsequent controversy.
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Old 13-11-2016, 16:22
JCR
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I doubt in the big picture Birth had much of a shot anyway. Once more vanilla, less bloody films about race came into the picture, Birth was always going to be out the door, in my 'umble opinion.
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Old 13-11-2016, 17:14
Damien_Johnson
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The "so white" controversy will mean more black representation this year for sure.

I reckon Best Film will be 10:

a united kingdom
the birth of a nation
moonlight
hacksaw ridge
loving
arrival
manchester by the sea
la la land
passengers
fences

Best Actor:

ryan gosling
casey affleck
trevante rhodes
joel edgerton
denzel washington

Best Actess:

amy adams
natalie portman
ruth negga
rosamund pike
emma stone

I think the likes of Viola Davis, Michelle Williams and Marion Cottilard will be pushed into the 'supporting' categories.

Does anyone know who's hosting next year? I heard Poheler (sp) and Fey but I don't think it's been confirmed.
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Old 13-11-2016, 18:54
JCR
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Hacksaw Ridge won't get nominated. Everyone loves a comeback but Gibson is Gibson and I don't see him having enough Oscar voter support.
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