Maybe Silence which seems to be building momentum. La La Land has peaked too early.

Yeah but that year Titanic was unsinkable ( )

Sore point with me as I think Titanic is dreadful on many levels.

Moonlight possibly, Manchester-By-Sea is probably too under-stated.

I think Silence is just going to be too grim tbh.

Or Hacksaw Ridge. The Academy loves a war movie.

MbtS is apparently very bleak, though it does have Amazon funding it's Oscar campaign

I feel like Gibson being attached to it is going to prevent this happening. He has made a lot of enemies in Hollywood and I don't think he has rebuilt enough bridges yet.

Silence is being called a masterpiece by some reviewers. Lion is also gaining some momentum.

There is just enough dry humour in it to prevent it being completely bleak. I think Affleck has a great shot for Best Actor and would be a worthy winner.

Not according to the Film 2016 reviewers.

what do they know....

I agreed with both of their reviews of MBTS and La La Land.

why is everything so late to leak this year? i'm sure we had basically every nominated movie online by this point last year? none of them are even out in cinema's yet so i can't even watch them that way.

Yeah, good luck with that. Simply not happening.

It's very rare for the most nommed movie to go home empty handed. And I don't think that Boyhood had that many noms (especially in the techs, which La La Land will dominate). So that comparison is really off.

Boyhood also didn't go away empty handed....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wx-Qh4Vczc

Boyhood had 6 nominations and went home with one. I was mainly comparing La La Land with Boyhood for being overhyped and overrated and not as successful on Oscar night as everyone predicted.

Personally I think Birdman, other than Keaton's performance, was pretty mediocre. I suppose it depends what kind of film you prefer in the end.

Interestingly it can argued that Birdman, as other films discussed upthread, represents the kind of film that Hollywood likes because it is about the industry and that this is what aided it on oscar night that year.

I agree about Birdman. It wasn't great. But a real luvvies film which Hollywood insiders would adore.

Which is why La La Land is the current favourite.

I'd vote for La La Land too, but I'm thinking that too much of the Academy will think it's not "dark" enough to warrant an Oscar, surprised it didn't get a SAG cast nomination which is often indicative of the Best Picture thinking

I don't think its a surprise, as other than the two leads no one else has significant screen time.

La confidential was robbed that year

Even Casey Affleck on Saturday Night Live described it as a very very very miserable movie

This is a problem for it, if you think many people will vote for pictures their friends are in then "La La Land" could be like "Brokeback Mountain" going against "Crash" and its cast of thousands

Director of LaLa Land is an incredible talent, 31 and already has two smash hit films under his belt. Great future ahead of him.