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Sky to be more selective with sports rights strategy |
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#226 |
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Join Date: Oct 2014
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I don't disagree with any of that.
But, if a household turns to Sky Sports Mix to watch the Netball, Sky using their data will have a more accurate idea of the number of homes watching than BARB with their 2,000 or so homes with Sky. And it is the method that is key. As any statistician will tell you, increasing the sample size beyond a certain point doesn't increase the accuracy of the data significantly, it just gives you more data. BARB samples around 6,500 households. If it sampled 65,000 the data wouldn't be ten times more accurate, it would only be around three times more accurate. If the data from the Sky boxes was sampled in as accurate a way as BARB data, then it would be fifty times more accurate (from a sample size more than 1,000 times greater). But most of the data from Sky boxes is "bad data". It tells you nothing at all. Quote:
For a niche sport such as Netball it would be almost impossible to get one Netball fan on the panel, and BARB wouldn't actively try. I assume it gets a zero rating from BARB? Actively trying to get netball fans on the panel would also be wholly unscientific. But statistically the panel would already include 15-20 households where someone plays netball regularly, because the panel is representative of the greater population. I expect it's like Ladies Golf, that I'm involved with, the audience is mainly female golfers, club members and their families. Something Sky can monitor, but BARB is far too generic. I haven't seen any netball ratings, but I'd guess that BARB probably reports figures of 15-40,000 for a live game. |
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#227 |
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Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 234
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Thirdly, if a box is tuned to Sky Sports Mix, the probability of the television also being switched on is 50%. The television has two states. On or Off. Sky has no way of knowing this, so any judgement it makes on viewing figures from this data is already at least as inaccurate as it is accurate.
Just because there are two possible states doesn't make the probability of them 50% each. (though this actually validates the rest of your point if Sky doesn't know if the TV is actually on or off - how can the data be identifying who is actually watching something) |
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#228 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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Bit in bold - I don't think so!
Just because there are two possible states doesn't make the probability of them 50% each. (though this actually validates the rest of your point if Sky doesn't know if the TV is actually on or off - how can the data be identifying who is actually watching something) I didn't realise Sky boxes were so far behind
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#229 |
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There was speculation the PGA Championship - the final golf major - with the rights up on Sky... Nothing has been officially announced about a new deal but I see Sky have been running promos saying that in 2017 they will have all four majors...
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#230 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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Here is a naughty thought. BT played a blinder in getting SKY to massively overbid for the premier league. With the Champions league rights coming up early next year I wonder whether BT would almost consider losing them but by doing that make SKY makr another massive bid to regain them at a time when the network can probably ill afford it....Therefore making it much easier for BT to pick off other sports........
My own view is BT Sport will retain the rights with a caviat some games will be on terrestrial tv....... to quote Kevin Keegan I would LOVE IT though if BT could push SKY someway towards financial meltdown |
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#231 |
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Join Date: Sep 2012
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Here is a naughty thought. BT played a blinder in getting SKY to massively overbid for the premier league. With the Champions league rights coming up early next year I wonder whether BT would almost consider losing them but by doing that make SKY makr another massive bid to regain them at a time when the network can probably ill afford it....Therefore making it much easier for BT to pick off other sports........
My own view is BT Sport will retain the rights with a caviat some games will be on terrestrial tv....... to quote Kevin Keegan I would LOVE IT though if BT could push SKY someway towards financial meltdown I remember when trans world sport was the highlight of the week. However I do think they have pushed things too far. This latest PL deal is ridiculous. |
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#232 |
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: England, E.Midlands & London
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Here is a naughty thought. BT played a blinder in getting SKY to massively overbid for the premier league. With the Champions league rights coming up early next year I wonder whether BT would almost consider losing them but by doing that make SKY makr another massive bid to regain them at a time when the network can probably ill afford it....Therefore making it much easier for BT to pick off other sports........
My own view is BT Sport will retain the rights with a caviat some games will be on terrestrial tv....... to quote Kevin Keegan I would LOVE IT though if BT could push SKY someway towards financial meltdown So no, just no! BT won't give up the UCL without a fight. Its a huge contract and one they worked hard for months on prep to acquire. They won't then roll over and give it up just to mess with Sky. Sky paid what they did for the PL, they know they screwed up in doing that and are paying for it (in more ways than one) now and will be for a while yet. |
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#233 |
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I have a number of issues with Sky but wanting them to go into financial meltdown would cost thousands of people their jobs, cost the economy alot of revenue Sky brings to via tax etc and reduce creative chances to writers, producers not to mention mean the loss of programming ranging from drama to sport and films.
So no, just no! BT won't give up the UCL without a fight. Its a huge contract and one they worked hard for months on prep to acquire. They won't then roll over and give it up just to mess with Sky. Sky paid what they did for the PL, they know they screwed up in doing that and are paying for it (in more ways than one) now and will be for a while yet. Ian. |
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#234 |
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The interesting thing will be if Sky struggle with keeping the rights they have when the premier league auction returns for the new rights in the next year or two.
Ian. |
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#235 |
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Join Date: Feb 2015
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Its going to be a tight squeeze thats for sure. I do expect Sky will lose a few packs to BT simply because Sky can't afford to go like they have.
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#236 |
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Join Date: Mar 2004
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Aren't BT pretty happy with their CL rights? And I doubt that Sky are that bothered about not having them given the money they spent on the PL rights and that they used to split them with ITV anyway.
It seems to me that we've reached a bit of an equilibrium with sports rights. As long as Sky keeps hold of PL, cricket, F1 and golf majors they're happy. Any ambitions to monopolize all popular sports must have ended by now. And as long as BT have enough rights to make their channel reasonably attractive they retain a bargaining chip that stops Sky from blackmailing them. |
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#237 |
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Join Date: Apr 2012
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The interesting thing will be if Sky struggle with keeping the rights they have when the premier league auction returns for the new rights in the next year or two.
Ian. Maybe just try and keep a few decent packages but not like they have now....noway!! They made a huge mistake and i still think were surprised when they ended up as many packages as what they did. Off course at the next round with Sky perhaps being so vulnerable it could open the door to more outsiders bidding? |
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#238 |
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Join Date: Nov 2016
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I think BT would be more than happy to keep what they got although it never works out that way, as for Sky i doubt they would even consider paying as far over the price as what they did a few years ago.
Maybe just try and keep a few decent packages but not like they have now....noway!! They made a huge mistake and i still think were surprised when they ended up as many packages as what they did. Off course at the next round with Sky perhaps being so vulnerable it could open the door to more outsiders bidding? As for Cricket can see BT and one of the terrestrial channels joining up with a serious bid against sky. BT for the test series and the terrestrial for the shorter 20/20 games. If the big bash league coverage does well can see it been channel 5. |
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#239 |
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Join Date: Feb 2015
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Yeah can see Sky going all out to keep the Sunday Afternoon and Monday / Friday night matches if nothing else it would be a blow for them if they were to lose them. Can actually see Eurosport putting a bid in for at least one of the packages.
As for Cricket can see BT and one of the terrestrial channels joining up with a serious bid against sky. BT for the test series and the terrestrial for the shorter 20/20 games. If the big bash league coverage does well can see it been channel 5. |
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#240 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 606
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I have a number of issues with Sky but wanting them to go into financial meltdown would cost thousands of people their jobs, cost the economy alot of revenue Sky brings to via tax etc and reduce creative chances to writers, producers not to mention mean the loss of programming ranging from drama to sport and films.
So no, just no! BT won't give up the UCL without a fight. Its a huge contract and one they worked hard for months on prep to acquire. They won't then roll over and give it up just to mess with Sky. Sky paid what they did for the PL, they know they screwed up in doing that and are paying for it (in more ways than one) now and will be for a while yet. |
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#241 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: London
Posts: 861
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Yeah can see Sky going all out to keep the Sunday Afternoon and Monday / Friday night matches if nothing else it would be a blow for them if they were to lose them. Can actually see Eurosport putting a bid in for at least one of the packages.
As for Cricket can see BT and one of the terrestrial channels joining up with a serious bid against sky. BT for the test series and the terrestrial for the shorter 20/20 games. If the big bash league coverage does well can see it been channel 5. The Big Bash partnership between BT and Five could be interesting if it leads to a more formal partnership over bigger rights. I would hope that Five becomes the terrestrial highlights provider for next Winters Ashes, to tie in with it being the home of Home Test highlights. And, as others have noted, if BT felt under pressure to have a more accessible platform in which to show certain CL games, including the Final, then Five could be that platform. It would be huge for Five, it would get rid of any issues UEFA may have as regards FTA coverage in the UK, and would give us a possible alternative route back to the old Sky/ITV model which seemed to work pretty well. |
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#242 |
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: UK
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And, as others have noted, if BT felt under pressure to have a more accessible platform in which to show certain CL games, including the Final, then Five could be that platform. It would be huge for Five, it would get rid of any issues UEFA may have as regards FTA coverage in the UK, and would give us a possible alternative route back to the old Sky/ITV model which seemed to work pretty well.
Apart from showing a few England qualifiers years ago, Five have no history in paying any sort of big money for sports rights. |
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#243 |
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: South
Posts: 10,848
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IMO Sky still consider PL rights to be an essential part of their wider business strategy. Not having all the packages isn't that much of an issue for them as they've been able to blend decent Championship fixtures into the mix but losing all Saturday football would be a blow. The 12:30 games work as a good feed into Soccer Saturday. More important though is that they retain as many of the important fixtures as possible.
I've been proved wrong about things before but i'm absolutely certain that no broadcast only company is going to pick off PL rights at the current prices. It wouldn't make business sense for anyone that isn't also selling pay tv/broadband/phone packages. |
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#244 |
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Join Date: Sep 2011
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The interesting thing will be if Sky struggle with keeping the rights they have when the premier league auction returns for the new rights in the next year or two.
Ian. I doubt Sky will really want many extra games, perhaps just a couple so they can say they have "more games than ever" etc..... I expect the big battle will over the packages with the best picks. |
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#245 |
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Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Liverpool
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I think BT would be more than happy to keep what they got although it never works out that way, as for Sky i doubt they would even consider paying as far over the price as what they did a few years ago.
Maybe just try and keep a few decent packages but not like they have now....noway!! They made a huge mistake and i still think were surprised when they ended up as many packages as what they did. Off course at the next round with Sky perhaps being so vulnerable it could open the door to more outsiders bidding? Regarding the outsider possibility... it's only natural that people will look to Eurosport and beIN Sports but I think the status quo will be maintained. I don't think Sky will actually want any more games because more games = more of a diluted product because the additional games will feature lower teams. |
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#246 |
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Aberdeen
Posts: 166
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Following on from this debate - I would take it from the other point of view for a minute. Whilst with hindsight it is easy to say Sky spent too much but no one know how much other bidders bid. I believe most packs went to a 2nd round so may have been closer than anyone thought. (Others may have more detail on this to confirm/dispute).
However with Sky spending £1.4bn per year on the PL, combined with how much it would take to dislodge Sky from the rights next time, would Sky not be in prime position to keep their rights for 2019-2022. This as any competitor would have to go to £1.6bn per year minimum to take the rights off Sky (depending on how much of a gap the PL insist on in the bidding). Who can realistically come up with those figues and somehow make a profit. So if Sky then keep the rights they have now (ignoring for a minute the changes to 190 games we know about) for roughly the same amount (i.e without inflation), it could then be argued that Sky took a short term hit for long term gain. Last edited by kincorth01 : 05-12-2016 at 19:10. Reason: Spelling errors |
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#247 |
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Join Date: Feb 2015
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Following on from this debate - I would take it from the other point of view for a minute. Whilst with hindsight it is easy to say Sky spent too much but no one know how much other bidders bid. I believe most packs went to a 2nd round so may have been closer than anyone thought. (Others may have more detail on this to confirm/dispute).
However with Sky spending £1.4bn per year on the PL, combined with how much it would take to dislodge Sky from the rights next time, would Sky not be in prime position to keep their rights for 2019-2022. This as any competitor would have to go to £1.6bn per year minimum to take the rights off Sky (depending on how much of a gap the PL insist on in the bidding). Who can realistically come up with those figues and somehow make a profit. So if Sky then keep the rights they have now (ignoring for a minute the changes to 190 games we know about) for roughly the same amount (i.e without inflation), it could then be argued that Sky took a short term hit for long term gain. |
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#248 |
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Join Date: Nov 2016
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I think the next time tckecricket rights come up will be interesting though. If sky lose even the big cricket rights while BT keep the UEFA contract then I expect sky will go aggressive on Keeping as much of the Premier league as possible. Part of the problem is sky had a monopoly on sport rights for so long seeing off both ITV digital and Setanta that BT been strong has shocked them and I am not sure they know what to do about it.
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#249 |
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Join Date: Nov 2016
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With technology improving all the time I don't think Netflix and amazon can be rbidding on future premier league rights possibly in partnership with an overseas broadcaster after all no one will have predicted BT bidding before 2012
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#250 |
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Join Date: Jan 2010
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With technology improving all the time I don't think Netflix and amazon can be rbidding on future premier league rights possibly in partnership with an overseas broadcaster after all no one will have predicted BT bidding before 2012
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