Originally Posted by Miasima Goria:
“The red lines drawn by May and the pronouncements made by Johnson have scuppered a lot of negotiations. And a lot of EU and European politicos have said talks will be about how to leave, not necessarily about making a lasting deal. And quite a few UK politicians will not accept any connection with the EU”
This raises a point, which many are not aware of. That is, that Brexit is, and will be, a two stage process, that EU guidelines dictate have to occur sequentially.
The first stage is the exit. The withdrawal from the EU treaties, and the negotiations to tidy up on the loose ends, and consequences of the withdrawal, which IMO should take less than the allocated two years.
The second stage is the post exit UK EU relationship. The reconnections after exit. The trading relationship both in goods and services, and what restrictions will occur on the both way movement of people.
The exit, the first stage, must occur first, and that appears to be the primary goal of the EU. The second stage is will depend on both parties, but mainly on the UK as it reassess its future relationship with the EU.
The difficulties will occur in the void between the first, and second stages, post exit but before any formal agreement on trade or movement of people. This time period which could extend out to a number of years, will force EU UK trade into trading under WTO regulations, at considerable hardship, and disadvantage, to the current situation of full membership to the custom union, and single market.