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Guardian: EU agrees to push UK into Hard Brexit
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Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“Liar again. I've explained it many times, the relevance is that developing countries are developing so, whilst our EU exports are increasing nicely thank you, our non EU exports are increasing faster as some of those markets are developing countries, some of which we exploit thanks to EU agreements.

You keep desperately trying to present what is almost an inevitability as some sort of bizarre criticism of the EU. But it's just not significant that our exports to markets (plural, note) some of which are developing countries like China, are increasing faster than to a market that is more mature in terms of development. This is really elementary.”

On the contrary - YOU are the habitual liar - and not just because you are too ignorant to understand the difference between your asinine claims, and reality.
Any idiot should be able to understand the difference between an increasing volume of trade with one group - which, nevertheless is still declining in percentage terms of total trade volume. And all this despite the apparent advantage of tariff free trading.
Furthermore - irrespective of the reasons behind it - the result is THE DECLINING VALUE of THAT PARTICULAR TRADE GROUP.........especially in view of the club 'membership' costs. Your constant lying does you no favours whatsoever --- it merely highlights how distant you are from reality.
Yes, this issue is ELEMENTARY, so one would have thought that you might perhaps be able to understand it - but your postings would suggest that grasping the real nature of things , rather than imagined, or invented, is probably beyond you.
Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“Er, you need to ask the person whose "disastrous" you are quoting.”

Erm - OK - then I'll make it easier for you - I'll change the word 'disastrous' to 'declining' - now. perhaps you will , for a change, be able to respond - in an effort to support your claim.
allaorta
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“The talk is that Britain can ditch the EU and start trading with Commonwealth countries instead : many of whom were completely opposed to Brexit and think it may hurt their own economies.

http://thecommonwealth.org/media/pre...nwealth-states”

When we joined the EEC restrictions were placed on our dealings with the Commonwealth. The 1975 referendum was held following successful but miserably poor negotiations to allow more Commonwealth trading. At the time of joining the EEC, New Zealand was devastated by our not buying their lamb.
Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“I don't have to know anything to see you're blaming bad things in the EU on the EU and bad things outside the EU on anything but not being in the EU.”

Maybe you should attempt to prove that claim ......even though you are not used to doing that..

Quote:
“The simple fact is we were declining relatively until we joined the EU and have relatively maintained our position since we joined despite competition from larger developing countries.”

Declining economies are frequently reflected by declining GDP growth.......perpaps you could illustrate your claim with some historical statistics.
Clearly, the opportunity to join a tariff free trade group is likely to further improve a country's economic situation anyway - but I haven't seen any evidence from yourself that the UK's economy was in decline prior to joining the EEC --- and in any event, what economic advantage is to be gained by joining a Political Union???
allaorta
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“For them not to apply, the UK would have to have some form of free trade deal with these countries but that couldn't come into place 24 hours after Britain leaves the EU. That's what some of the Commonwealth countries would be very worried about.”

We could have a 20% import duty on New Zealand lamb and it would still be cheaper than our own under the current set-up. In fact, it would be pretty much the same price if we put 100% import duty on it.
allaorta
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“I don't have to know anything to see you're blaming bad things in the EU on the EU and bad things outside the EU on anything but not being in the EU.

The simple fact is we were declining relatively until we joined the EU and have relatively maintained our position since we joined despite competition from larger developing countries.”

The simple fact is, forgetting all your waffling excuses that those bad things have happened since we joined.

I've told you why we were declining before the EEC and the reasons we have continued to decline are the same as those before we joined. The main difference is we now have nowhere to run except to pull out, something that should never have happened because we should never have joined.

Here we are, sixty years on, and the EU has far from got any act together other than control.
allaorta
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“Er, you need to ask the person whose "disastrous" you are quoting.”

Steve is welcome to quote my "disastrous".
Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by davor:
“If Guardian agrees, then it will be the hard Brexit.”

As the saying goes - 'Brexit means Brexit' - which means the UK exiting from the EU. This would also mean no longer being a member of the 'Single Market'. Many countries have access to the single market, without having the 'trappings' associated with membership.....but in reality - the people voted for those things that the EU controls , such as Free Movement of people - and the EU have indicated that such facilities will still have to be adopted if Single Market access is to me maintained - so in reality, a so called 'hard Brexit', is the only option.
Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“No, it doesn't clearly mean anything.

Except "Brexit" of course.”

Yes it does.....well at least to sensible thinking people. Nobody knows the basis of any subsequent trade agreement - but by definition, 'Brexit means Brexit' - which CLEARLY means Britain leaving the EU - it is an abbreviation for BRITISH EXIT, (from the EU).
You shouldn't confuse yourself by trying to assume what post -Brexit trading arrangement will be agreed.
John146
23-11-2016
Steve, this may be a red herring, but as far as I can see trade with the EU is certainly not growing:

As the UK marches towards a referendum on its EU membership, the nation's statisticians have taken a closer look at the bloc's importance to trade.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released a bulletin on UK-EU trade, in the same month as trade figures show that British reliance on trade with the EU has fallen to an all-time low.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ee-charts.html
Thor_Noggsson
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Steve_Holmes:
“On the contrary - YOU are the habitual liar - and not just because you are too ignorant to understand the difference between your asinine claims, and reality.
Any idiot should be able to understand the difference between an increasing volume of trade with one group - which, nevertheless is still declining in percentage terms of total trade volume. And all this despite the apparent advantage of tariff free trading.
Furthermore - irrespective of the reasons behind it - the result is THE DECLINING VALUE of THAT PARTICULAR TRADE GROUP.........especially in view of the club 'membership' costs. Your constant lying does you no favours whatsoever --- it merely highlights how distant you are from reality.
Yes, this issue is ELEMENTARY, so one would have thought that you might perhaps be able to understand it - but your postings would suggest that grasping the real nature of things , rather than imagined, or invented, is probably beyond you.”

I may be wrong on this but it seems that whilst the EUs economy has grown in monetary terms its percentage share of the world market as declined (From 30% in 1980 to about 14% in 2014).
So it has become a less important market on the world stage because the rest of the worlds monetary value has grown faster than the EUs.
So it makes sense to focus more on the developing markets does it not?
The Brain
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Steve_Holmes:
“As the saying goes - 'Brexit means Brexit' - which means the UK exiting from the EU. This would also mean no longer being a member of the 'Single Market'. Many countries have access to the single market, without having the 'trappings' associated with membership.....but in reality - the people voted for those things that the EU controls , such as Free Movement of people - and the EU have indicated that such facilities will still have to be adopted if Single Market access is to me maintained - so in reality, a so called 'hard Brexit', is the only option.”

That's not what Daniel Hannan MEP, along with some other Leave campaigners, said. He was mooting the Norway model, now favours a Swiss-style arrangement and would only like to see withdrawal from the single market in some sectors.
Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by John146:
“Steve, this may be a red herring, but as far as I can see trade with the EU is certainly not growing:

As the UK marches towards a referendum on its EU membership, the nation's statisticians have taken a closer look at the bloc's importance to trade.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released a bulletin on UK-EU trade, in the same month as trade figures show that British reliance on trade with the EU has fallen to an all-time low.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...ee-charts.html”

That doesn't indicate that trade with the EU is not growing John - just that it's portion of global trade is declining.......ie it has been growing, but not as fast as the rest of the world - but , it does mean what you said in your final statement - as we are trading more with the rest-of-world, the importance of EU trade with the UK is declining - even though undoubtedly, still a significant value.
Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Thor_Noggsson:
“I may be wrong on this but it seems that whilst the EUs economy has grown in monetary terms its percentage share of the world market as declined (From 30% in 1980 to about 14% in 2014).
So it has become a less important market on the world stage because the rest of the worlds monetary value has grown faster than the EUs.
So it makes sense to focus more on the developing markets does it not?”

Agreed - and this is the 'bonus' that awaits the UK post Brexit.
Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by The Brain:
“That's not what Daniel Hannan MEP, along with some other Leave campaigners, said. He was mooting the Norway model, now favours a Swiss-style arrangement and would only like to see withdrawal from the single market in some sectors.”

Indeed - that is an opinion of many......but it would not really be Brexit totally, if the EU still has any form of control over the UK......and especially wrt immigration.
Many Bremainers foolishly equate CONTROL of immigration with racism, xenophobia etc.......despite that being an almost universal practice outside of the EU. I believe that is because they cannot mount credible arguments to support their opinion........just as they cannot produce a credible argument to support being a member of a Political Union in order to promote economic benefit.
The latter is totally unjustified - and the referendum result indicates that UK returning to democracy is desired.
We would all like to see Free Trade with the EU.......but not at the current 'membership cost' to the UK, (not just financial). A political association is totally unnecessary for obtaining economic growth via trade. - in fact it stifles it.
Blairdennon
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“That is exactly the case. You cannot negotiate new trade deals while you are still in the EU, you can only do so after you have left ie. at the end of the process.

But in any event, why would they do anything to 'help' countries leave the union and make it as easy as possible? That would be a recipe for disaster.”

Largely because their own charter has the following
'Conscious of its spiritual and moral heritage, the Union is founded on the indivisible, universal values of human dignity, freedom, equality and solidarity; it is based on the principles of democracy and the rule of law. It places the individual at the heart of its activities, by establishing the citizenship of the Union and by creating an area of freedom, security and justice.'

The British Citizens are still EU citizens until they leave and should have all the rights enshrined in the charter and the EU should ensure they have as well as recognising indisputably their democratic rights. If the EU decides that helping a country to enjoy exactly those freedoms and rights it espouses so proudly, and so grandly, is beyond their wishes then they are a duplicitous bunch of rogues not fit to lord over a charter that is just so much worthless paper. No matter what the outcome we will be better off out of the hands of this bureaucratic monstrosity.
andykn
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Steve_Holmes:
“Well Australia and New Zealand have already made positive initial approaches - as has India, and outside of the EU, WE can negotiate trade deals with the majority of countries of non - EU countries - not just those in the Commonwealth......WITHOUT having to pay for it, OR adopting yet another tier of governance, and an undemocratic one undemocratic at that!”

And what can we export more of to these countries with the right deal?

And don't India want more immigration to the UK in return?
andykn
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Steve_Holmes:
“On the contrary - YOU are the habitual liar - and not just because you are too ignorant to understand the difference between your asinine claims, and reality.
Any idiot should be able to understand the difference between an increasing volume of trade with one group - which, nevertheless is still declining in percentage terms of total trade volume. And all this despite the apparent advantage of tariff free trading.
Furthermore - irrespective of the reasons behind it - the result is THE DECLINING VALUE of THAT PARTICULAR TRADE GROUP”

But it's not declining in value, it's increasing in value, just not as fast as the group containing more developing countries like China.

That our trade with developing countries is growing faster than our growing trade with the EU tells you NOTHING about the EU, just about the pace of development of developing countries.
andykn
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Steve_Holmes:
“Erm - OK - then I'll make it easier for you - I'll change the word 'disastrous' to 'declining' - now. perhaps you will , for a change, be able to respond - in an effort to support your claim.”

The "decline" being discussed was the one Allaorta referred to a while ago, in the decades preceding our EU membership the UK had gone from the world's largest economy to the worlds 6th largest IIRC. It recovered to 5th largest once in the EU.
Blairdennon
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“The "decline" being discussed was the one Allaorta referred to a while ago, in the decades preceding our EU membership the UK had gone from the world's largest economy to the worlds 6th largest IIRC. It recovered to 5th largest once in the EU.”

EEC membership, surely? The EU did not come into being realistically till 92. Not the same thing as EU membership. Of course much of the improvement coincided with Thatcher and her policies which included ensuring the EEC did not overextend itself.
Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“And what can we export more of to these countries with the right deal?”

What can't we export? Neither YOU, nor I know the basis of trade subsequent to Brexit - nor, what trade deals will be agreed with non-EU countries, but if only WTO terms are established with the EU, then the answer is clearly whatever we can buy or sell cheaper elsewhere.......we are doing most of that now in case you hadn't noticed!!
Quote:
“And don't India want more immigration to the UK in return?”

Yes they do - but that isn't a problem, as it will still be 'CONTROLLED'.
That is the key word that you Bremainers just do not understand - and of course, we wouldn't be required to join a Political Union in order to trade with them - nor pay a fee for that privilege.
So - yet again, why should the UK have to pay a fee in order to benefit from trade with Europe, OR, join a Political Union?
jmclaugh
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“The "decline" being discussed was the one Allaorta referred to a while ago, in the decades preceding our EU membership the UK had gone from the world's largest economy to the worlds 6th largest IIRC. It recovered to 5th largest once in the EU.”

The UK economy was ranked 4th in 1960, 5th in 1965, 6th in 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985, 7th in 1990, 5th in 1995, 4th in 2000 and 2005, 6th in 2010 and 5th in 2015.

The UK joined the EEC in 1973 and the EU can be said to have come into being in 1993.
Kiteview
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by Steve_Holmes:
“That is the key word that you Bremainers just do not understand - and of course, we wouldn't be required to join a Political Union in order to trade with them - nor pay a fee for that privilege.
So - yet again, why should the UK have to pay a fee in order to benefit from trade with Europe, OR, join a Political Union?”

The EU is a union of sovereign nations. It isn't a "Political Union" - whatever that is supposed to either be or do.

The only sense that it is "political" is that its members pursue certain goals in common with each other - and that charge can be just as easily levied at EFTA, NATO, the WTO or any other international organisation. Countries don't just found international organisations without them sharing a political vision of what they are trying to achieve.
Steve_Holmes
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“The "decline" being discussed was the one Allaorta referred to a while ago, in the decades preceding our EU membership the UK had gone from the world's largest economy to the worlds 6th largest IIRC. It recovered to 5th largest once in the EU.”

Then as I requested - as YOU continue to repeat the UK's economic decline prior to joining the EEC as factual, then , YOU provide the evidence for that. From what I can ascertain, as I have illustrated, we were continually growing annually in GDP prior to joining the EEC - and apart from the very high first quarterly growth in 1973, that acclaimed ceasing economic decline is just not borne out by the statistics - and the statistics also illustrate that continued economic growth while in the EEC/EU does not show a significant UK GDP rate of improvement.
With your constant iteration of more rapid growth of developing countries, you should realise that a country's economic ranking is not constant - and the UK's economic ranking, as I have also illustrated has not been dramatically improved by our membership of the EEC/EU - albeit, I do not ignore the value of free trade - but it isn't worth the cost wrt EU membership - nor would it be for ANY requirement to join a political association in order to trade.
andykn
23-11-2016
Originally Posted by allaorta:
“When we joined the EEC restrictions were placed on our dealings with the Commonwealth. The 1975 referendum was held following successful but miserably poor negotiations to allow more Commonwealth trading. At the time of joining the EEC, New Zealand was devastated by our not buying their lamb.”

I don't remember a time when New Zealand lamb was not available in the UK.
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