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Guardian: EU agrees to push UK into Hard Brexit


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Old 20-11-2016, 10:38
andykn
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Slightly misleading headline : they're saying they would push Britain into a hard Brexit *if* the UK refuses to obey the rules of the Single Market or accept freedom of movement (the exact same rules the other 27 members, plus four others are already obeying).
Surely not, yet another leaver so worried about what they've done they're still thinking they need to mislead the rest of us?
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:38
James_Orton
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It's likely to be far more than 2% per annum, but even 2% compounded over 10 years is a 22% drop. That's the economy shrinking by nearly a quarter in 10 years!
The estimated loss of going to WTO rules is 0.3% off GDP. So we would have growth of 2.1% rather than 2.4%.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:38
andykn
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If we accepted all those rules then the Brexit vote would be negated. There is no "soft" Brexit option.
We'd be out of the EU, that's all was voted for.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:39
andykn
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Most people who voted to leave the EU knew perfectly well what they were voting for
But not all. Doesn't take many to lose your majority.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:39
Dacco
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Yay, we're f***ed.
Yay, the EU is already f***ed........
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:40
CSJB
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Joining the EEC is said to have added 7% to our exports and another 7% when the single market was formed.

In goods alone a 10% reduction in exports would currently be a loss of £28.4bn a year, which is double our 2015contribution to the EU.

Even if it's a 10% reduction of just goods exports to Europe that's £15bn a year which about 3 times our total net contribution to the EU in 2015.
The drop in sterling should negate any effects from any possible new tarrifs imposed by the EU - I'm expecting exports to rise not fall.
Imports from the EU might fall, leading to another manufacturing boost for the U.K.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:40
Landis
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A clean brexit is the path to global free trade and certainty. I actually find the prospect rather exciting.
If you don't get the clean Brexit you want....you should blame David Cameron.

He said he would activate Article 50 on the 28th June.
He said he would stay on as PM and deliver a Brexit if we voted to leave.

What would be a suitable opening line in his Obituary many years from now to decribe a man who told these 2 astonishing untruths??

Article 50 was not triggered 5 days after the Referendum - as he promised. And therefore, anything can happen.
I am certain that Parliament (both the upper house and the lower house) will deliver the will of the people of Sunderland. And beyond.
But gauging that mood in 2017 will not be easy.
Phillip Hammond seemed to agree with Andrew Marr this morning that it is far from clear what is ahead. Even the ONS are guessing.

As a result, Hammond is not sure if he should tell you, on Wednesday that you have voted to make yourself poorer, or that you have voted to make yourself much poorer.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:40
gocompletelynut
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You may know this, but the headlines in The Mail, The Metro, The Sun, The Express etc were all about how leaving would stop the terrorists and ISIS, while mocking any figures from the remain side put forward. Yet they were will to put the £350 million a week for the NHS lie on their front covers. That's a 10% - 15% swing in the vote right there.
As a butt-hurt remainer, If this is the only way you can deal with the result of the referendum you keep telling yourself that leavers didn't know what they were doing.

I travelled the country in June and spoke to a lot of people, everyone heard the scare stories about the economy and they accepted them, but and this is a big but, they felt there are more important things than money sometimes.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:41
James_Orton
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We'd be out of the EU, that's all was voted for.
That is the case but the EEA would be political suicide for the tory party not to restrict FoM.

I would hope that we move into the EEA as a transition with a CETA+ style FTA. It also gives the population a chance to take stock and maybe stay in the EEA.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:41
James_Orton
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The drop in sterling should negate any effects from any possible new tarrifs imposed by the EU - I'm expecting exports to rise not fall.
Imports from the EU might fall, leading to another manufacturing boast for the U.K.
The EU can't impose new tariffs under WTO rules.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:42
James2001
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For whom and how, exactly?
Because people's hatred of the EU blinds them to the real effects and how much of a disaster it would be.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:42
andykn
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It's hilarious that the Leavers have been saying for years that we should ignore Europe and make our own decisions but as soon as there is a suggestion that there could be a "hard" exit then they suddenly change their minds and say that we should do exactly what they say.
But of course all they're saying is that we can't have our cake and eat it. That leavers think this is somehow "threats and coercion" shows why referenda are a bad idea.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:43
andykn
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EU trade is 10% of our business and making the other 90% suffer to maintain that is not fair.

....and lets not forget all those businesses that no longer exist thanks to that !
How do the other 90% "suffer"? By having to maintain the same degree of worker and consumer protection the 10% do?
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:44
BrokenArrow
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The EU can't impose new tariffs under WTO rules.
I think Trump has it in mind to browbeat the WTO into changing the rules, especially the rules of origin.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:45
LostFool
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Imports from the EU might fall, leading to another manufacturing boast for the U.K.
Or, more likely, imports of food and manufactured goods become more expensive as there isn't an equivalent UK producer. Even for goods which are produced in the UK a weaker Sterling means that imported components and raw materials are more expensive as well as energy and labour costs going up.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:47
david16
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Norway, Switzerland and every other respected European nation that are not in the EU are part of the single market due to being EEA members and in the customs union.

60 tory MP's who demand that the UK leaves the EU, but not even to then put in an application to join both the customs union and the EEA soon after are in the minority of all MP's in a Bremain house in the commons are a total disgrace to society. The UK will be the only European nation that are not at least in the customs union and the EEA even if not EU members if the 60 tory MP's get their way.

The UK would isolated and a total laughing stock in Europe and all around the world.

The EU have never said the UK could never be in the customs union and single market once it has left the EU. Just that the UK would have to leave the EU first before applying to both which is the procedure.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:48
BrokenArrow
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Or, more likely, imports of food and manufactured goods become more expensive as there isn't an equivalent UK producer. Even for goods which are produced in the UK a weaker Sterling means that imported components and raw materials are more expensive as well as energy and labour costs going up.
....and a stronger Sterling means we can't sell anything.

Its been accepted for some time that Sterling was overvalued and was damaging export growth.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:55
i4u
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I think Trump has it in mind to browbeat the WTO into changing the rules, especially the rules of origin.
Isn't the WTO made up of over 100 countries and I see the head of WTO's Trade Policy Review Body is from China.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:58
andykn
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As a butt-hurt remainer, If this is the only way you can deal with the result of the referendum you keep telling yourself that leavers didn't know what they were doing.
You only have to read comments on here about the EU not letting us have our cake and eat it being "threats and coercion" to realise that some people definitely don't know what's going on.
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Old 20-11-2016, 10:59
TheEngineer
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We know that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We had this debate before the referendum remember.

All the warnings, all the scares and we still voted out.

That decision must be respected, lets get the hell on with it, geez.
So what do we do to make up the Billions in lost revenue?

Scrap the NHS?

Easy to say "let's get on with it" - but how are you going to make up the lost revenue?
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Old 20-11-2016, 11:00
andykn
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I think Trump has it in mind to browbeat the WTO into changing the rules, especially the rules of origin.
I can't see Most Favoured Nation rules, which prevent the EU charging us punitive tariffs, being changed.
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Old 20-11-2016, 11:06
i4u
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....and a stronger Sterling means we can't sell anything.
Really?

In 2015 the UK's total sales of goods Worlwide was worth 285bn.

You could spend an additional £5.5bn a week on the NHS with that sort of money.
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Old 20-11-2016, 11:06
andykn
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The drop in sterling should negate any effects from any possible new tarrifs imposed by the EU - I'm expecting exports to rise not fall.
When? The last set of figures showed a fall.
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Old 20-11-2016, 11:08
andykn
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We know that !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Only you amongst leavers. All all others dismiss the warnings as scare stories, despite may of them coming true already they are still ignored.
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Old 20-11-2016, 11:11
andykn
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The eu are only doing it so no other countries dare leave the eu.As no country should have the audacity to leave the eu Paradise
Doing what? Telling us we can't have our cake and eat it? Bastards!

Why do so many leavers think we can have all the benefits of membership with none of the commitments?
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