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Old 27-11-2016, 11:32
*Sparkle*
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Theoretically, Zac Goldsmith stood down because the Tories announced a 3rd run-way at Heathrow, so he's standing again as an "independent", but with support from many Tories (including pro-Heathrow expansion ones) and UKIP. He's pre-Brexit.

The main challenger is Sarah Olney of the LibDems, who is also against Heathrow, but also anti-Brexit (as is most of the constituency).

Many in the Labour party thought they shouldn't stand a candidate as they've never done well there, but they are, and he's anti-Brexit and anti-Heathrow and currently polling on about 9%

The Greens decided to not to stand a candidate and are supporting the LibDems. Goldsmith has claimed on some of his leaflets that he has the support of Caroline Lucas, but she has denied this, and is actively campaigning for Olney, and been photographed with her etc. https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2...paign-leaflet/

The Women's Equality Party have also released a statement to say they aren't standing a candidate, and are supporting Olney - although I don't think they actually stood last time, but it lends weight to the idea that most people see this as a choice between Goldsmith and Olney, same as many non-Labour supporters were happy to see Khan win the mayoral election after Goldmith's dubious campaigning.

New movement MoreUnited polled their members, and they decided to support Olney too. http://www.moreunited.uk/richmond-park

Has Goldsmith taken an arrogant gamble (at the expense of local tax payers) that he'll lose?

Are Labour being foolish and arrogant to stand a candidate that cannot win, and will only take votes away from the biggest challenger to the candidate favoured by the Tories and UKIP?

I reckon that many Labour supporters would already work out that they should tactically vote for the LibDem candidate, especially if they've learnt the lesson from Witney. But how many voters pay full attention to who stands a chance of winning, and how many will want to protect the deposit of their favourite, even if it means a worse candidate gets power?

There's been a lot of talk of the need for political alliances, especially with our ridiculous First Past the Post system, but are enough people willing to get involved, and able to work out how best to apply their tactical vote?

IMO, this is going to be a closely run election. Obviously, the biggest message would come from a Goldsmith loss, but we're seeing a lot on the potential benefits of politicians with overlapping ideals working together, instead of competing with each other.
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Old 27-11-2016, 11:47
MARTYM8
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I expect local voters will be very happy come Friday. Some people have apparently received up to 25 leaflets from the Lib Dums - so many trees destroyed by those who claim to be green. Also hundreds of their activists from outside the area knocking on people's doors and haranguing voters as they are at home just wanting to watch the telly.

But ultimately it is all a waste of time. We can't have the rich property owners of Richmond stopping a new airport runway the UK needs and we already knew they voted remain.

Zac did the honourable thing and delivered on his commitment to trigger the by election. It will be a shame if the voters reward that by electing the cynical and opportunistic Lib Dems who don't seem to believe in respecting democracy anymore despite their party name.
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Old 27-11-2016, 11:53
Pindarus
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Richmond voted heavily Remain in the Referendum and this could tilt the balance. There is also a Conservative standing as an Independent which will siphon off Goldsmith support. Many people see his decision to resign as ridiculous posturring.

Lib Dems to win, although I doubt it will trigger a revival.
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Old 27-11-2016, 11:58
MARTYM8
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Richmond voted heavily Remain in the Referendum and this could tilt the balance. There is also a Conservative standing as an Independent which will siphon off Goldsmith support. Many people see his decision to resign as ridiculous posturring.

Lib Dems to win, although I doubt it will trigger a revival.
Richmond Park voted remain because the vast majority of people there live in expensive houses and have a very good life - so of course they are happy with the status quo and how things are. Their vote on Thursday will and should make no difference on Brexit - cos yes they voted remain but the country didn't.

Zac said he would resign when he stood in 2015 should this scenario arise - he delivered on what people voted for when they elected him then with a massive majority.
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Old 27-11-2016, 12:17
Annsyre
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Richmond Park voted remain because the vast majority of people there live in expensive houses and have a very good life - so of course they are happy with the status quo and how things are. Their vote on Thursday will and should make no difference on Brexit - cos yes they voted remain but the country didn't.

Zac said he would resign when he stood in 2015 should this scenario arise - he delivered on what people voted for when they elected him then with a massive majority.
No he didn't.

He announced his resignation as a Member of Parliament following the Government's October 2016 decision to approve a third runway at Heathrow Airport. His resignation triggered a by-election in the Richmond Park constituency in which Goldsmith has expressed his intention to stand as an independent candidate.
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Old 27-11-2016, 12:19
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The Libs have wasted a lot of money on this seat. Once again they showed they are out of touch. Of course the residents of Richmond will care more about how many 787 dreamliners are flying directly above their heads - shaking the furniture inside their multi-million pound homes - than a far left Lib Dem candidate running on a Remain ticket.
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Old 27-11-2016, 12:19
*Sparkle*
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Zac did the honourable thing and delivered on his commitment to trigger the by election. It will be a shame if the voters reward that by electing the cynical and opportunistic Lib Dems who don't seem to believe in respecting democracy anymore despite their party name.
Tell me, how will the people of Richmond be better off by having Goldsmith returned, at great public expense, to vote in the exact same way he would have done if he'd simply resigned from the Tory party and crossed the floor of the House of Commons? The Tories are not standing a candidate, because they want him to win, so it's no punishment for them if he does this, and he could simply have voted against the Heathrow expansion as a sitting Tory MP anyway. What's the worst that would have happened? They'd have withdrawn the party Whip?

You say it's an imposition for the locals to have their tv viewing interrupted by the normal processes of a by-election, yet it was noble for him to impose this onto them? It's apparent that you think Heathrow expansion should go ahead, regardless of what the locals think, but as you are praising Goldsmith for this move, I'm wondering which particular cards you think he's got up his sleeve that will help to prevent it happening that he's not bothered to play so far?

The LibDems have campaigned against its expansion for years (along with the Greens), and were able to prevent it from happening while they were in coalition. Goldsmith couldn't manage it as a Tory MP in the party of government, so what will change when he's an 'independent' MP supported by the Tories and UKIP?
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Old 27-11-2016, 12:22
mimik1uk
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No he didn't.

He announced his resignation as a Member of Parliament following the Government's October 2016 decision to approve a third runway at Heathrow Airport. His resignation triggered a by-election in the Richmond Park constituency in which Goldsmith has expressed his intention to stand as an independent candidate.
at the risk of turning the thread into a panto sketch

oh yes he did

He is making one very big promise of his own, though, in response to the awkward position his party has put him in. “I pledged to trigger a by-election if the party gives a green light for expansion. And I obviously would.”
from an article prior to the 2015 GE

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10187292.html
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Old 27-11-2016, 12:36
FusionFury
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Could be the key player according to clegg
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Old 27-11-2016, 12:44
MARTYM8
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No he didn't.

He announced his resignation as a Member of Parliament following the Government's October 2016 decision to approve a third runway at Heathrow Airport. His resignation triggered a by-election in the Richmond Park constituency in which Goldsmith has expressed his intention to stand as an independent candidate.
Articles from May 2015.

https://www.ft.com/content/ad79f36c-...6-00144feab7de

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32717245


Goldsmith reiterated his position that if the government decide to move forward on a third runway he would resign his seat.

He didn't commit to doing this last month - but before the last election. If he hadn't resigned it would have been dishonourable as that is what he promised local people when they elected him at the last election
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Old 27-11-2016, 12:58
RRL
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Just something anyone thinking of voting Lib Dem should remember, Sarah Olney's husband worked extensively on bringing Terminal 5 to Heathrow. Oh um ...

http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/n...5/?ref=rl&lp=3

http://www.surreycomet.co.uk/NEWS/14...ow_Terminal_5/

http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/n...ow_Terminal_5/

http://order-order.com/people/sarah-olney/
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Old 27-11-2016, 14:05
Annsyre
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at the risk of turning the thread into a panto sketch

oh yes he did



from an article prior to the 2015 GE

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10187292.html
He stood down over the expansion of Heathrow and not as suggested by another FM because we voted to leave. And it was the other FM to whom I responded.
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Old 27-11-2016, 14:05
Soppyfan
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I would take those articles with a pinch of salt, tbh.

Anyways, with just days to go now, I believe this is going to be VERY close. If the Libdems do pull it off, it will send a very strong message to the Tories and there'll be nothing the right-wing media can do about it.
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Old 27-11-2016, 14:10
mimik1uk
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He stood down over the expansion of Heathrow and not as suggested by another FM because we voted to leave. And it was the other FM to whom I responded.
no he didn't , you need to re-read the sequence of posts

he replied to a comment about remain from another poster but has quite clearly said the decision to stand down was over the heathrow expansion

cant believe i am sticking up for Marty
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Old 27-11-2016, 14:10
Annsyre
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I would take those articles with a pinch of salt, tbh.

Anyways, with just days to go now, I believe this is going to be VERY close. If the Libdems do pull it off, it will send a very strong message to the Tories and there'll be nothing the right-wing media can do about it.
That's a very big if.

In 2015 Zac Goldsmith comfortably held his Richmond Park seat tonight having secured more than 34,000 votes.

Liberal Democrat candidate Robin Meltzer won 11389 votes


I can't see the LDs overturning such a big majority.
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Old 27-11-2016, 14:12
NeverEnough
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Hmmm. Doesn't seem like a decade since the Lib Dems were in coalition with the Tories, now the new principled Corbynista Labour Party supporters are already talking tactical voting. A rehabilitation of which many an old Soviet politician would be proud.
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Old 27-11-2016, 14:23
Aristaeus
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Just something anyone thinking of voting Lib Dem should remember, Sarah Olney's husband worked extensively on bringing Terminal 5 to Heathrow. Oh um ...

http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/n...5/?ref=rl&lp=3

http://www.surreycomet.co.uk/NEWS/14...ow_Terminal_5/

http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/n...ow_Terminal_5/

http://order-order.com/people/sarah-olney/
So? Sarah is not her husband, and her husband is not standing for election. Breaking news: husbands and wives can have different opinions!!!
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Old 27-11-2016, 14:34
RRL
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So? Sarah is not her husband, and her husband is not standing for election. Breaking news: husbands and wives can have different opinions!!!
I take it from that that you didn't read the links I put up
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Old 27-11-2016, 14:37
*Sparkle*
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That's a very big if.

In 2015 Zac Goldsmith comfortably held his Richmond Park seat tonight having secured more than 34,000 votes.

Liberal Democrat candidate Robin Meltzer won 11389 votes
The LibDems did poorly from the coalition. They got the blame for the stuff that went wrong, and the Tories took the credit for the more popular stuff.

Nevertheless, the LibDems previously held the seat, and there will be many former LibDem voters who are ready to return to voting for them. And of course that election was before the disaster that was the Mayoral election where Goldsmith ran what can only be described as a racist campaign, which upset a lot of Tory voters.

The fact of the matter is that while Goldsmith starts with a lead, and has the advantage of much greater face and name recognition, the only viable challenger is the Sarah Olney, so there will be people from all parties, including some who voted Tory last time (but probably not UKIP), who will be giving serious consideration to voting for her.

The Tories, and UKIP were wise to avoid standing their own candidates, knowing that in-fighting amongst their lot would only weaken their individual cases, and the party brands. Unfortunately, depending on your point of view, Labour have no such qualms about fighting amongst allies, or damaging their own brand.

I think turn-out will be interesting. I can imagine there may be some Tory and Labour voters who can't bring themselves to vote for their usual party, but may not quite ready to vote tactically against their usual party.
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Old 27-11-2016, 15:22
Aristaeus
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I take it from that that you didn't read the links I put up
Yes I did. Her husband helped build terminal 5 ten years' ago but is not in favour of further expansion. And...?

Terminal 5 is not the topic of this by-election and again, she is not her husband.
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Old 27-11-2016, 15:33
MARTYM8
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So? Sarah is not her husband, and her husband is not standing for election. Breaking news: husbands and wives can have different opinions!!!
Yes - she was for Heathrow expansion before she was against it. As with most Lib Dems her opinions are whatever it takes to get elected.
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Old 27-11-2016, 16:38
Aristaeus
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Yes - she was for Heathrow expansion before she was against it. As with most Lib Dems her opinions are whatever it takes to get elected.
Link please.
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Old 27-11-2016, 17:47
blueisthecolour
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I think Labour are completely right to run a candidate here. It's not like they share a lot of views or policies with the Lib Dems these days. I mean, arguably pre-Iraq they had a bit of a Judean People's Front'/People's Front of Judea thing going on with the Lib Dems but now . . . .

You could argue that they should be providing a united front against hard Brexit but then the Lib Dems stance of ignoring the referendum result doesn't make it easy. I'm sure there's a lot of northern Labour MPs in very pro-Brexit areas that wouldn't want to be associated with that.

If I lived in Richmond I would vote Labour - obviously the candidate isn't going to win but then i'd almost prefer Goldsmith over some opportunist Lib Dem (and I think other Labour supporters would take a similar view). Actually I wouldn't be completely surprised if Labour's vote share went up . . . .
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Old 27-11-2016, 18:16
Welsh-lad
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Richmond Park voted remain because the vast majority of people there live in expensive houses and have a very good life - so of course they are happy with the status quo and how things are. Their vote on Thursday will and should make no difference on Brexit - cos yes they voted remain but the country didn't.
.
The Libs have wasted a lot of money on this seat. Once again they showed they are out of touch. Of course the residents of Richmond will care more about how many 787 dreamliners are flying directly above their heads - shaking the furniture inside their multi-million pound homes - than a far left Lib Dem candidate running on a Remain ticket.
What your ilk are really worried about is that the LibDems might pip a win in the seat, it will be spun as a rejection of Brexit, and will damage its progress.

I don't believe that myself as it was a Remain area anyway, but narratives are quite influential.
I haven't any time for the LibDems here locally as they are pretty dirty campaigners at elections, but I do like how they are, nationally, riling the brexiteers into a froth of invective
Remember that big block of them sitting in the House of Lords. Bet they can't wait to start amending
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Old 27-11-2016, 18:34
MARTYM8
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She backed Terminal 5 - which was an expansion of Heathrow. Her husband worked on it - and presumably it helped pay for her lovely house.

To quote others:

"She finished her Standard interview by admitting: “If I don’t win, I’ve got a nice house, a great husband, lovely children and a good job to go back to.” A nice house paid for by her great husband’s work for Heathrow…"

At least Zac got his money honestly - by inheriting it from his asset stripping dad.
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