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Richmond Park by-election


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Old 27-11-2016, 18:38
MARTYM8
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What your ilk are really worried about is that the LibDems might pip a win in the seat, it will be spun as a rejection of Brexit, and will damage its progress.
How is a solidly remain area electing some Lib Dem going to undermine Brexit. Richmond voted 70% remain - if Zac who is pro Brexit gets more than 30% as he almost certainly will that surely suggests a swing to Brexit in the area since June?
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Old 27-11-2016, 18:53
*Sparkle*
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If I lived in Richmond I would vote Labour - obviously the candidate isn't going to win but then i'd almost prefer Goldsmith over some opportunist Lib Dem (and I think other Labour supporters would take a similar view). Actually I wouldn't be completely surprised if Labour's vote share went up . . . .
It's this attitude that explains the trouble Labour is in at the moment. There's not enough people who really are serious about bringing about practical improvements to the lives of ordinary people.

They'd much rather punish the party that has overlapping ideas, than the party that implements the policies they are supposed to hate, endorsed by UKIP, then play the martyr when it happens. I suppose some people just like the status quo of the government changing between two colours a bit too much, and don't care that ordinary people suffer in the meantime.

Tell me, what is it about Goldsmith and his ideals that you prefer over the LibDems? And what is it that is opportunistic about them standing a candidate in a constituency where they came second last time, and held as recently as 2005?
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Old 27-11-2016, 19:28
Welsh-lad
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How is a solidly remain area electing some Lib Dem going to undermine Brexit. Richmond voted 70% remain - if Zac who is pro Brexit gets more than 30% as he almost certainly will that surely suggests a swing to Brexit in the area since June?
And that's how brexiters will spin that one.
It's all a load of bollocks whichever side does it.

What's important is how it's perceived.
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Old 27-11-2016, 20:28
MARTYM8
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And that's how brexiters will spin that one.
It's all a load of bollocks whichever side does it.

What's important is how it's perceived.
The by election is about Heathrow - that is why it is happening.

Do you think Brexit is going to be prevented because Richmond upon Thames says so?

We know Richmond backs remain - it did on 23 June. If a solidly leave seat voted LD it might be different.
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Old 27-11-2016, 22:47
blueisthecolour
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It's this attitude that explains the trouble Labour is in at the moment. There's not enough people who really are serious about bringing about practical improvements to the lives of ordinary people.

They'd much rather punish the party that has overlapping ideas, than the party that implements the policies they are supposed to hate, endorsed by UKIP, then play the martyr when it happens. I suppose some people just like the status quo of the government changing between two colours a bit too much, and don't care that ordinary people suffer in the meantime.

Tell me, what is it about Goldsmith and his ideals that you prefer over the LibDems? And what is it that is opportunistic about them standing a candidate in a constituency where they came second last time, and held as recently as 2005?
Put simply, the Lib Dems now share a lot more in common with the Tories then they do with Labour. I know that they gained a reputation as a social democratic party under Kennedy but if you look at their policies, read the autobiographies of Lib Dems leaders and troll through the Lib Dem website they are actually just soft conservatives.

My real point though is I honestly don't believe that there is an electoral basis for a conservative/traditional/establishment centre-left party to win a majority in this country anymore. The working classes aren't going to vote New Labour anymore - those days are over.
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Old 27-11-2016, 22:49
*Sparkle*
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Why about Heathrow? That decision has already been made, which according to you means it is pointless.

Of more relevant, all of the main candidates are against Heathrow, and despite your efforts to spin it otherwise, the LibDems have been against Heathrow expansion for longer than Goldsmith has held his seat. Heathrow expansion has been mooted for years, and having Goldsmith in Government did nothing to prevent the announcement, so why would having a pseudo-independent candidate against it bother the Tories enough to reverse the decision?
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Old 27-11-2016, 22:50
*Sparkle*
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Put simply, the Lib Dems now share a lot more in common with the Tories then they do with Labour. I know that they gained a reputation as a social democratic party under Kennedy but if you look at their policies, read the autobiographies of Lib Dems leaders and troll through the Lib Dem website they are actually just soft conservatives.

My real point though is I honestly don't believe that there is an electoral basis for a conservative/traditional/establishment centre-left party to win a majority in this country anymore. The working classes aren't going to vote New Labour anymore - those days are over.
So because you think the LIb Dems have more in common with the Tories than Labour, you'd rather the candidate that made racist comments against the Labour mayoral candidate won. Excellent logic, and the sort that will see Labour out of power for another generation.
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Old 27-11-2016, 23:10
thenetworkbabe
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How is a solidly remain area electing some Lib Dem going to undermine Brexit. Richmond voted 70% remain - if Zac who is pro Brexit gets more than 30% as he almost certainly will that surely suggests a swing to Brexit in the area since June?
Because May is devising policy so as to not lose 30 MPs or seats to UKIP , or constant rebellion.

But, a revived Liberal party could equally put 30 seats under threat from the Liberals. Richmond would be good territory for that, Twickenham would be better ,and although the SW voted for exit , even a small Liberal swing there, would win back some seats.
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Old 27-11-2016, 23:10
blueisthecolour
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So because you think the LIb Dems have more in common with the Tories than Labour, you'd rather the candidate that made racist comments against the Labour mayoral candidate won. Excellent logic, and the sort that will see Labour out of power for another generation.
I'd rather just vote for the party who's policies and ideology best match my own. If the Lib Dems were a bit closer to Labour and Zac Goldsmith was some kind of Donald Trump figure, then yeah, i'd probably lend them my vote. But as it's stand I don't think there's enough difference for me to not vote for who I actually want.

If the only way Labour gets into power is by being a different shade of conservatism then I don't really care if they are out of power for a generation.
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Old 27-11-2016, 23:18
*Sparkle*
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If the only way Labour gets into power is by being a different shade of conservatism then I don't really care if they are out of power for a generation.
They quite plainly aren't a different shade of conservatism, but if you think the difference is so slight that it's not worth being in power, then I can only presume that you are one of those socialists who is quite happy with things the way they are, and can afford for others to suffer while you enjoy moaning about it.

I mean, Zac isn't quite as rich as Trump, and I'm not aware of him being particularly sexist, but obviously if you have no qualms about him inciting racial hatred during a campaign, or being backed by UKIP, then you enjoy the moral high ground of saying you'd rather he won. Do you think the Greens and WEP are also Tories?
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Old 27-11-2016, 23:19
Kiteview
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The by election is about Heathrow - that is why it is happening.
As all the candidates are against Heathrow expansion, the by-election isn't about Heathrow since the MP will be anti-Heathrow expansion.

Do you think Brexit is going to be prevented because Richmond upon Thames says so?

We know Richmond backs remain - it did on 23 June. If a solidly leave seat voted LD it might be different.
The result may well change the balance within the HoC and, despite the best efforts of the government to avoid the HoC, Parliament looks set to have its say. And nothing would focus the minds of MPs more then to see a huge 23,000+ majority overturned.
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Old 27-11-2016, 23:22
Under Soul
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To be fair and I would dearly love the LD to win the election it won't be in either Labour or LDs interest to merge like this as they are quite different in many ways especially with regard to Brexit, economic policies etc. I'm finding it disgustingly cynical that the Tories haven't fielded a candidate and even got some of the more prominent MPs to actively campaign for Zac,
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Old 27-11-2016, 23:59
blueisthecolour
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They quite plainly aren't a different shade of conservatism, but if you think the difference is so slight that it's not worth being in power, then I can only presume that you are one of those socialists who is quite happy with things the way they are, and can afford for others to suffer while you enjoy moaning about it.

I mean, Zac isn't quite as rich as Trump, and I'm not aware of him being particularly sexist, but obviously if you have no qualms about him inciting racial hatred during a campaign, or being backed by UKIP, then you enjoy the moral high ground of saying you'd rather he won. Do you think the Greens and WEP are also Tories?
I'm interested - what sort of people do you think are suffering today that wouldn't suffer under a Lib Dem/New Labour government? It's exactly because I believe that people are suffering that I think this country needs some radical change.

He didn't incite racial hatred - there are laws about that and he would have been arrested if he did. I didn't really like the tone of his campaign but TBH it's not something i'm that bothered about. As for being backed by UKIP - obviously they are going to support a pro-Brexit candidate, it's not his fault who supports him (the same way it wasn't Trump's fault that the KKK supported him).

I'm not really sure why the Green's are backing the Lib Dem candidate, seems a bit odd to me. Maybe they just don't want to run a candidate against someone who resigned on pro-environmentalist issue but can't bring themselves to back a 'Tory'. It's interesting that they refused to back Sadiq Khan over Goldsmith in the London Mayor election though - obviously they weren't that bothered about who won between the two of them . . .
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Old 28-11-2016, 07:13
Aristaeus
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To be fair and I would dearly love the LD to win the election it won't be in either Labour or LDs interest to merge like this as they are quite different in many ways especially with regard to Brexit, economic policies etc. I'm finding it disgustingly cynical that the Tories haven't fielded a candidate and even got some of the more prominent MPs to actively campaign for Zac,
The Tories do have a candidate standing: Zac Goldsmith. He's not an independent candidate in any real sense of the word.
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Old 28-11-2016, 08:10
*Sparkle*
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UKIP are an entirely separate party to the Tories. They have decided that Zac sufficiently represents their views, and doesn't want to split the right-wing vote.

The Greens have explained why they are supporting the LibDems. Mainly because they don't want to split the anti-Tory vote, but also because of their shared views on Heathrow, Brexit and electoral reformm

If you've not noticed the changes to policy, the shift to the right of the Tories now they are in power alone, then I'm not surprised you can't imagine how a government made up of more, but not staunch, left-wing MPs will be better for those who are struggling.

I absolutely respect that for some, they'd always prefer to vote for the candidate that best represents their views, so that's down on record, and no-one thinks they really do love the compromise candidate. The problem we have don't have an electoral system that values this, and is one of the reasons that the Lib Dems and Greens are so firmly in favour of electoral reform. There was a debate on this recently, raised by Caroline Lucas, and the Labour party all found they had other things to do, because Corbyn told them to have other things to do.

To be fair, there are a number of individual Labour MPs who have been campaigning to change party policy, but not enough so far. The party as a whole is still convinced that FPTP suits their interests better.
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Old 28-11-2016, 10:15
*Sparkle*
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Apologies for replying to myself, but this article discusses many of these issues further, and shows that it's not such a fringe idea any more.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...right-populism

I knew that some in Labour weren't happy with them standing a candidate, but I hadn't realised just how far it went.
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Old 28-11-2016, 10:31
trevgo
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If I lived in Richmond I would vote Labour - obviously the candidate isn't going to win but then i'd almost prefer Goldsmith over some opportunist Lib Dem (and I think other Labour supporters would take a similar view). Actually I wouldn't be completely surprised if Labour's vote share went up . . . .
No surprise here. I've canvassed Richmond in the past when it was Tory marginal, and there was always a stubborn Labour vote that would not vote tactically under any circumstances. They helped the Tory in every time, which was very frustrating, but typical of the belligerent Labour mindset.

I doubt that will happen this time. The Labour vote will shrivel to next-to-nothing this time. Richmond is NOT full of Corbynista.

Zac will hold by a much reduced majority, is my prediction. I would dearly love the LibDems to win it, even if the candidate is somewhat lacklustre. I did my bit, both monetarily and in a day's work down there.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:27
*Sparkle*
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At the recent by-election in Witney there was an independent candidate who decided to withdraw to support the LibDem candidate there, but it was after the deadline, so his name stayed on the ballot paper. In spite of his public statements, he still got a couple of hundred votes, so I've no idea what that was about. Perhaps they were from family or friends who didn't want him to get no votes, or from people who wanted to register a protest. It's hard to tell.

It's fair to say that if Labour didn't stand a candidate, some of their supporters wouldn't vote, or they'd vote for a genuine independent, or spoil their ballot. It may provide a boost to Labour Party HQ for their candidate to get votes, but it's not going to bother Theresa May. She knows that those votes are ones her party will never win in the future, so she has no incentive to consider them in policy making.

A swing from the Tories to LibDems won't change the party of Government, but it might just encourage May to pander less to the UKIP voters, and more to the soft-Tories who were alarmed by the tone at the recent party conference. Labour voters need to decide if they want that tone to stop, or if they are happy for it to continue, because it will come in handy when it comes to campaigning in 2020?
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Old 01-12-2016, 14:13
Annsyre
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Well, today's the day and all of the theories in this thread will be put to the test.

Andrew Neil will be covering the event tonight on This Week.
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Old 01-12-2016, 14:26
Soppyfan
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Yep, it's polling day and last I heard, the gap is shortening...this is going to be very close!
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Old 01-12-2016, 18:38
Annsyre
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Roll on ten o'clock and the exit poll.
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Old 01-12-2016, 18:57
swingaleg
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any clues on the result time?

I don't think I'd wait up much after midnight unless it was imminent
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Old 01-12-2016, 19:02
MARTYM8
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Roll on ten o'clock and the exit poll.
Is there going to be an exit poll? There isn't usually - just rumours from parties based on turnout.
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Old 01-12-2016, 19:03
LostFool
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Roll on ten o'clock and the exit poll.
I doubt anyone will bother paying for an exit poll for a meaningless by-election.

If I was in Richmond I would have voted Lib Dem. Goldsmith will be no loss to Parliament and Parliament will be no loss to Goldsmith.
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Old 01-12-2016, 19:08
Annsyre
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I doubt anyone will bother paying for an exit poll for a meaningless by-election.

If I was in Richmond I would have voted Lib Dem. Goldsmith will be no loss to Parliament and Parliament will be no loss to Goldsmith.
It's an interesting by election in he circumstances, not the usual run of the mill sort. Heathrow and the Referendum are big issues.
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