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Richmond Park by-election


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Old 01-12-2016, 19:11
LostFool
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It's an interesting by election in he circumstances, not the usual run of the mill sort. Heathrow and the Referendum are big issues.
I heard it called the "Lost Cause By-election" since Heathrow expansion and EU Exit will happen regardless of the result,

Bookies see Goldsmith as about 2/5-on favourite:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/.../winning-party
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Old 01-12-2016, 19:18
thenetworkbabe
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It's this attitude that explains the trouble Labour is in at the moment. There's not enough people who really are serious about bringing about practical improvements to the lives of ordinary people.

They'd much rather punish the party that has overlapping ideas, than the party that implements the policies they are supposed to hate, endorsed by UKIP, then play the martyr when it happens. I suppose some people just like the status quo of the government changing between two colours a bit too much, and don't care that ordinary people suffer in the meantime.

Tell me, what is it about Goldsmith and his ideals that you prefer over the LibDems? And what is it that is opportunistic about them standing a candidate in a constituency where they came second last time, and held as recently as 2005?
Labour has plenty of people like that. Its problem is its made irrelevant by a hard left ruling clique that would prefer to go on anti -Israel, anti-US , and pro UK disarmament rallies, and dream of the movement marching to power, someime, never. its got nothing practical to say on current issues, and no understanding of views much outside student politics, cult rallies, and Islington parties. The result is that Labour, at the top offers nonsense, and the party as a whole offers opposite policies, or no policies, when it needs one good, practical one.
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Old 01-12-2016, 19:52
Nick1966
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The Tories do have a candidate standing: Zac Goldsmith. He's not an independent candidate in any real sense of the word.
Agreed.

And this is why both Mrs May and UKIP want Zac Goldsmith back in parliament. Brexit supporting Mr Goldsmith represented a 'remain' constituency. His opposition to government policy on building Heathrow's 3rd runaway and his status as an 'independent' candidate are unimportant. He supports Brexit. And that's what counts.
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Old 01-12-2016, 21:00
*Sparkle*
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There have been actual Tory MPs, out campaigning for Zac in Richmond this evening, as well as a slew of councillors. They obviously don't think of him as an independent, although I saw a few of them trying on the news last night. A small group of activists were being questioned about it, and they insisted they were not there for the Tory party, but it all came unstuck when it was pointed out that one of them was using a "Vote Conservative" clipboard.

If Zac wins, there will be no meaningful change in Parliament, but it will have cost the public purse an estimated £240,000, and then he had the cheek to tell the voters, who are paying for this ego trip, that he decides what the election is about. It seems to have come as a shock to him that voters have other ideas.

I've no idea what the final result will be, but it's going to be a lot closer than Goldsmith expected when he first threw his toys out of the cot.
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Old 01-12-2016, 21:05
LostFool
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I've no idea what the final result will be, but it's going to be a lot closer than Goldsmith expected when he first threw his toys out of the cot.
I expect him to hold onto the seat as he seems to be personally popular in the constituency but the Lib Dems have done a lot of ground work that should make it a marginal seat for 2020.
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Old 01-12-2016, 21:25
MARTYM8
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Polls close in 35 minutes.

And the people of Richmond will rejoice - they must be sick of endless Lib Dem focus leaflets. Apparently some residents have had up to 25.

Still they must be handy for mopping up dirt or for using as toilet paper if you run out.
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Old 01-12-2016, 21:27
mimik1uk
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There have been actual Tory MPs, out campaigning for Zac in Richmond this evening, as well as a slew of councillors. They obviously don't think of him as an independent, although I saw a few of them trying on the news last night. A small group of activists were being questioned about it, and they insisted they were not there for the Tory party, but it all came unstuck when it was pointed out that one of them was using a "Vote Conservative" clipboard.

If Zac wins, there will be no meaningful change in Parliament, but it will have cost the public purse an estimated £240,000, and then he had the cheek to tell the voters, who are paying for this ego trip, that he decides what the election is about. It seems to have come as a shock to him that voters have other ideas.

I've no idea what the final result will be, but it's going to be a lot closer than Goldsmith expected when he first threw his toys out of the cot.
will anyone really be surprised when he rejoins the tories in a few months time and this by-election just turns out to have been a vanity exercise over his opposition to heathrow ?
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Old 01-12-2016, 21:29
Soppyfan
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And how do we think the voters are going to react to that? They won't be happy about it, I'm sure.
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Old 01-12-2016, 21:32
barrcode88
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Labour in Richmond Park said they are expecting that Goldsmith may have narrowly won.

(They don't care they just did it to split the vote, plus Corbyn is a brexiter)

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/stat...16136284696577
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Old 01-12-2016, 21:35
Annsyre
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wrong thread
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Old 01-12-2016, 21:41
Under Soul
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How on earth would Labour know before votes have closed?
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:00
Annsyre
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How on earth would Labour know before votes have closed?
From their canvassing returns and the tellers outside??
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:02
Annsyre
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And how do we think the voters are going to react to that? They won't be happy about it, I'm sure.
Goldsmith is very popular as an M.P.
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:03
LostFool
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From their canvassing returns and the tellers outside??
Commenting about the count while the polls are open could get them into trouble.

Remember this?

A Labour MP has been given a police caution following an allegation of electoral fraud.
Bristol East MP Kerry McCarthy revealed the results of a sample of postal votes on the social networking site Twitter days before the general election.

It is illegal to reveal the votes cast before the end of polling day as it may influence the outcome of the election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-11621053
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:09
smudges dad
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Commenting about the count while the polls are open could get them into trouble.

Rfemember this?



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-11621053
Ruth Davidson got away with it.
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:10
Annsyre
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Commenting about the count while the polls are open could get them into trouble.

Remember this?



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-11621053
George Easton is a journalist and he posted a comment about what he was told by someone in Labour.. No rules broken there.

Journalists have been commenting for weeks.
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:21
Under Soul
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Politics Home saying Lib Dems just might have made it and Tories gloomy. Why are they gloomy with no horse in the race eh?

Britain elects say neck and neck.
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:43
MARTYM8
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Labour in Richmond Park said they are expecting that Goldsmith may have narrowly won.

(They don't care they just did it to split the vote, plus Corbyn is a brexiter)

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/stat...16136284696577
The Lib Dems think they have won.

Until the ballot boxes are all opened though it's hard to tell. Given the freezing weather and dark evenings it may be turnout that decides it. Rumours are turnout may only be 35 per cent which for a wealthy seat like this - perhaps the wealthiest in the UK - is woeful.

Of course early predictors have got it wrong this year as we know.
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:50
BanglaRoad
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Any indication of when the declaration might be?
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:51
Under Soul
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Any indication of when the declaration might be?
2.30-3 am
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:52
Annsyre
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Richmond Park result expected to declare between... 02:00 - 02:30 so says the Evening Standard. 02:00 - 04:00 so says Sky News.
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:54
BanglaRoad
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Thanks for the estimates folks
Past my bedtime
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Old 01-12-2016, 22:57
Soppyfan
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I don't think I have the strength to stay up for that time, so I'll just sleep on it.
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Old 01-12-2016, 23:00
MARTYM8
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Thanks for the estimates folks
Past my bedtime
They are very slow in Richmond - they always have very late declarations for an urban seat.

If the turnout is as low as some people are saying though surely they might finish early.

Seems the winner may have been apathy - elections in December are not exactly going to deliver big turnouts.
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Old 01-12-2016, 23:02
BanglaRoad
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Have a look at the link in #51
Libs now 1/100!
Somebody has whacked a huge bet on them very recently
Betfair
Looked again and it's now 5/6
Somebody must have made a mistake
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