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Richmond Park by-election |
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#851 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 9,704
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Quote:
I can believe it. Coming from the North East I know that while most people there are economically left wing and believe in state control, high public spending and high taxes for "other people" there is also a significant proportion who are far more socially small-c conservative than many mainstream Conservatives. UKIP's call of nationalism, "traditional values" and against political correctness is appealing to them.
There is still a hardcore Labour support who won't go anywhere but a swing of 10-20% against them in northern seats to UKIP would be devastating to them and put previously safe seats up for grabs. Even if UKIP didn't win it could allow Lib Dems and Tories who were previously in second place to sneak through to win. |
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#852 |
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Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 25,479
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There has been bad feeling and disarray in the country for a long time, it's just that 48% of people were blind to it before.
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#853 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 59,745
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UKIP has a chance in Hartlepool. They won't take any other Labour seat in the NE, and the Tories and Lib Dems aren't close enough to be let in the back door either. There are very few marginal seats in the NE compared to the M62 corridor and the Midlands.
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#854 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
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I agree. The North East is still safe territory for Labour. There is no way they are going to lose in Leave areas like Sunderland despite all of their MPs being pro-Remain.
Scotland used to be safe Labour territory too and there was no way they would lose those seats - they did. No one quite knows how Brexit will affect our politics. |
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#855 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2003
Location: The Green Hills of Earth
Posts: 80,450
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I'm not remotely interested in hearing what that right-winger named Hartley-Brewer says.
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#856 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 7,947
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You get the politicians you deserve. Quite remarkable the number of people who seem to think that being a PR smoothie is a requirement to be a politician these days.
She'll learn, and it's a sign of how p*ssed off the right-wingers are that they are wetting themselves because a new MP, who probably had three hours sleep, bumbles an interview because they don't register that the interviewer is being deliberately obtuse. Quote:
Her acceptance speech was very impressive last night. She is a bright person who is going to go far. A potential future Lib Dem leader me thinks. She spoke with much confidence and authority...and she has the right values.
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#857 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Isle of Dogs
Posts: 2,157
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17.4 million people did not vote for Hard Brexit. 16 million Remainers most certainly didn't.
Leavers voted Leave because: 350 mil a week was going to be given to the NHS They didn't like Cam They didn't like the Tories They were anti-immigrant ... |
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#858 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 5,100
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I voted leave to get out of the EU lock, stock and barrel, simple as that, and not for any of the reasons you state.
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#859 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 12,165
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I'm not remotely interested in hearing what that right-winger named Hartley-Brewer says.
Blimey, just listened to it now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-DHqFikHoA What a nasty ignoramus of a bully that woman is. She obviously doesn't understand mathematics... 52% of a 72% turnout with 2 choices vs 49% of a 55% turnout with 6 choices Of course the Lib Dems are going to try block Brexit. They're the most Pro-EU europhile party in the land. The constituency voted 70% to remain, and they've now voted for a pro-remain MP. Shock horror! Not that the Lib Dems can actually do much to stop the triggering of A50 or Brexit with their 9 MPs, but hey.... any old reason to be nasty will do for some people.... I don't blame her for walking out. You can't reason with unreasonable people. It's pointless. So what if Cameron, Osborne & Gove said something about leaving the SM?! They're all known proven serial liars. It obviously wasn't the stance of the LibDem, Labour, Green & SNP pro-remainers. Cameron also said he'd stay on as PM and trigger A50 the very next day. Are we just going to cherry-pick his convenient lies only? I wonder what JHB's thoughts are on this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY Farage, Hannan, Paterson and other prominent Leave campaigners were constantly banging on about the Swiss & Norwegian models, who are both in the EFTA & Single Market, but not in the EU... |
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#860 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 4,039
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That's nice for you, but that doesn't dispute Ash point. People voted to leave for many different reasons. There is no mandate for hard brexit when even a majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to leave the EU.
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#861 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: London SW6
Posts: 37,581
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A massive majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to stay in the EU, surely that must be a mandate to leave by any method ?
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#862 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 12,489
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A massive majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to stay in the EU, surely that must be a mandate to leave by any method ?
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#863 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Parliment Sq waving a banner
Posts: 3,300
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The status quo was being in. Nowhere near a majority of eligible voters voted to change that and take us out.
There certainly wasn't a majority to Remain in either in fact if you have been watching the news of late it was a Leave majority and we are leaving the EU. I would think that any eligible voter that didn't vote couldn't care less either way and I suspect they still don't care. We only count the votes that are cast. |
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#864 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 189
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If that was really true, you'd think nearly half the population would have noticed it! The fact is that the EU was just not a major issue for most people until relatively recently.
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#865 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: London SW6
Posts: 37,581
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Status quo doesn't come into it.
There certainly wasn't a majority to Remain in either in fact if you have been watching the news of late it was a Leave majority and we are leaving the EU. I would think that any eligible voter that didn't vote couldn't care less either way and I suspect they still don't care. We only count the votes that are cast. |
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#866 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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Quote:
I voted leave to get out of the EU lock, stock and barrel, simple as that, and not for any of the reasons you state.
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#867 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 59,745
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I think that most Leave voters voted for exactly the same reason that you did. Lock stock and barrel sums it up nicely.
Let's be charitable and assume 75% of Leave voters wanted a "hard" Exit. That means (0.25 * 52) + 48 = 61% didn't want it against 0.75 * 52 = 39% who did. To have an overall majority the "hard leavers" would have to represent 96% of all leavers. |
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#868 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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Quote:
Even if "most" Leaver voters had those reasons in mind (even though there is little evidence for it) then that still mean that they are in a minority of all voters.
Let's be charitable and assume 75% of Leave voters wanted a "hard" Exit. That means (0.25 * 52) + 48 = 61% didn't want it against 0.75 * 52 = 39% who did. To have an overall majority the "hard leavers" would have to represent 96% of all leavers. Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT. Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards. |
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#869 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Wolf359
Posts: 96,797
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Quote:
Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.
Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards. |
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#870 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 20,520
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Quote:
Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.
Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards. I think all it proves is that many people talk/move/discuss with like minded folk. |
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#871 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Devon
Posts: 48,023
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Quote:
Even if "most" Leaver voters had those reasons in mind (even though there is little evidence for it) then that still mean that they are in a minority of all voters.
Let's be charitable and assume 75% of Leave voters wanted a "hard" Exit. That means (0.25 * 52) + 48 = 61% didn't want it against 0.75 * 52 = 39% who did. To have an overall majority the "hard leavers" would have to represent 96% of all leavers. |
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#872 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,592
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I haven't seen or heard her today banging on about her mandate?
I wonder why? |
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#873 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Parliment Sq waving a banner
Posts: 3,300
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Quote:
Which is all very well but ignores the fact a 'soft' Brexit means the UK still has to accept FoM, EU rules and pay into the EU coffers. I struggle to believe that is what people envisaged when they voted to leave the EU which is why both sides in the campaign saw leaving the EU as also leaving the single market.
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Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.
Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards. Quote:
Yes same here. No leaver I know wants a soft Brexit.
Out is out. We knew we were leaving the Single Market if we voted Leave Cameron and Osborne told us so and I believed them
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#874 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Gtr Manchester UK
Posts: 7,951
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Quote:
Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.
Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards. Strange how in normal elections we get the choice of three or more candidates - and can change our mind further down the line, but with this where there are so many different outcomes, we got a choice of two. Not even a "don't know - ask again later" option. Bizarre. |
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#875 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Gtr Manchester UK
Posts: 7,951
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Quote:
I don't want a soft Brexit.
Out is out. We knew we were leaving the Single Market if we voted Leave Cameron and Osborne told us so and I believed them ![]() Welcome to the club! |
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