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Old 03-12-2016, 10:25
apaul
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I can believe it. Coming from the North East I know that while most people there are economically left wing and believe in state control, high public spending and high taxes for "other people" there is also a significant proportion who are far more socially small-c conservative than many mainstream Conservatives. UKIP's call of nationalism, "traditional values" and against political correctness is appealing to them.

There is still a hardcore Labour support who won't go anywhere but a swing of 10-20% against them in northern seats to UKIP would be devastating to them and put previously safe seats up for grabs. Even if UKIP didn't win it could allow Lib Dems and Tories who were previously in second place to sneak through to win.
UKIP has a chance in Hartlepool. They won't take any other Labour seat in the NE, and the Tories and Lib Dems aren't close enough to be let in the back door either. There are very few marginal seats in the NE compared to the M62 corridor and the Midlands.
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Old 03-12-2016, 10:28
jjwales
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There has been bad feeling and disarray in the country for a long time, it's just that 48% of people were blind to it before.
If that was really true, you'd think nearly half the population would have noticed it! The fact is that the EU was just not a major issue for most people until relatively recently.
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Old 03-12-2016, 10:48
LostFool
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UKIP has a chance in Hartlepool. They won't take any other Labour seat in the NE, and the Tories and Lib Dems aren't close enough to be let in the back door either. There are very few marginal seats in the NE compared to the M62 corridor and the Midlands.
I agree. The North East is still safe territory for Labour. There is no way they are going to lose in Leave areas like Sunderland despite all of their MPs being pro-Remain.
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Old 03-12-2016, 11:57
MARTYM8
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I agree. The North East is still safe territory for Labour. There is no way they are going to lose in Leave areas like Sunderland despite all of their MPs being pro-Remain.
If anyone has told you five years ago Labour would be reduced to 1 seat in Scotland you would have been called crazy. And yet it happened.

Scotland used to be safe Labour territory too and there was no way they would lose those seats - they did. No one quite knows how Brexit will affect our politics.
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:04
CLL Dodge
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I'm not remotely interested in hearing what that right-winger named Hartley-Brewer says.
That's all we were left with after this new MP was dragged off air by her male minder.
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:29
*Sparkle*
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You get the politicians you deserve. Quite remarkable the number of people who seem to think that being a PR smoothie is a requirement to be a politician these days.
Sarah Olney was working as an accountant at the National Physical Laboratory up until now, so she'll be used to working with reasonable people. When asked a tricky question at a meeting, it's because the person wants to know the answer to something complicated. Hartley hates everything the LibDems stand for, and was probably the biggest Goldsmith fan-girl going. She wasn't being a journalist asking questions, she was being aggressive and condescending. Something Hartley has a great deal of experience in, while Olney is still a beginner.

She'll learn, and it's a sign of how p*ssed off the right-wingers are that they are wetting themselves because a new MP, who probably had three hours sleep, bumbles an interview because they don't register that the interviewer is being deliberately obtuse.

Her acceptance speech was very impressive last night. She is a bright person who is going to go far. A potential future Lib Dem leader me thinks. She spoke with much confidence and authority...and she has the right values.
This is what should count, and for all the attempts at distraction by the Tory right and UKIP because their poster-boy lost his seat, she's the one who will be turning up at Westminster on Monday. Media skills are important for any politician, especially after winning a high profile by-election, and there will be a lot of demands on her thanks to becoming the LibDems only female MP. Many will try to take advantage of her lack of media experience, but it's her ability to deal with case-work and speak in the House of Commons that really counts. Being able to schmooze the media only takes you so far, as Goldsmith just discovered!
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:30
burneside
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17.4 million people did not vote for Hard Brexit. 16 million Remainers most certainly didn't.

Leavers voted Leave because:
350 mil a week was going to be given to the NHS
They didn't like Cam
They didn't like the Tories
They were anti-immigrant
...
I voted leave to get out of the EU lock, stock and barrel, simple as that, and not for any of the reasons you state.
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:34
aurichie
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I voted leave to get out of the EU lock, stock and barrel, simple as that, and not for any of the reasons you state.
That's nice for you, but that doesn't dispute Ash point. People voted to leave for many different reasons. There is no mandate for hard brexit when even a majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to leave the EU.
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:38
sangreal
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I'm not remotely interested in hearing what that right-winger named Hartley-Brewer says.

Blimey, just listened to it now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-DHqFikHoA

What a nasty ignoramus of a bully that woman is.

She obviously doesn't understand mathematics...
52% of a 72% turnout with 2 choices vs 49% of a 55% turnout with 6 choices

Of course the Lib Dems are going to try block Brexit. They're the most Pro-EU europhile party in the land.
The constituency voted 70% to remain, and they've now voted for a pro-remain MP. Shock horror!

Not that the Lib Dems can actually do much to stop the triggering of A50 or Brexit with their 9 MPs, but hey.... any old reason to be nasty will do for some people....

I don't blame her for walking out. You can't reason with unreasonable people. It's pointless.

So what if Cameron, Osborne & Gove said something about leaving the SM?!
They're all known proven serial liars.
It obviously wasn't the stance of the LibDem, Labour, Green & SNP pro-remainers.
Cameron also said he'd stay on as PM and trigger A50 the very next day.
Are we just going to cherry-pick his convenient lies only?

I wonder what JHB's thoughts are on this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY

Farage, Hannan, Paterson and other prominent Leave campaigners were constantly banging on about the Swiss & Norwegian models, who are both in the EFTA & Single Market, but not in the EU...
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:38
CSJB
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That's nice for you, but that doesn't dispute Ash point. People voted to leave for many different reasons. There is no mandate for hard brexit when even a majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to leave the EU.
A massive majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to stay in the EU, surely that must be a mandate to leave by any method ?
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:41
andykn
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A massive majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to stay in the EU, surely that must be a mandate to leave by any method ?
The status quo was being in. Nowhere near a majority of eligible voters voted to change that and take us out.
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:43
niceguy1966
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A massive majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to stay in the EU, surely that must be a mandate to leave by any method ?
A massive majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to leave the EU. See, this line of arguement is totally pointless.
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:46
luckylegs
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The status quo was being in. Nowhere near a majority of eligible voters voted to change that and take us out.
Status quo doesn't come into it.

There certainly wasn't a majority to Remain in either in fact if you have been watching the news of late it was a Leave majority and we are leaving the EU.

I would think that any eligible voter that didn't vote couldn't care less either way and I suspect they still don't care.

We only count the votes that are cast.
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:47
DaveMBA
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If that was really true, you'd think nearly half the population would have noticed it! The fact is that the EU was just not a major issue for most people until relatively recently.
It was just a target for the 52%, who want to blame someone else for their own position. It is like many by-elections and the EU Parliament elections, albeit this time, the result did matter and the idiots, who have taken us out, will need to find someone else to blame.
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Old 03-12-2016, 12:57
andykn
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Status quo doesn't come into it.

There certainly wasn't a majority to Remain in either in fact if you have been watching the news of late it was a Leave majority and we are leaving the EU.

I would think that any eligible voter that didn't vote couldn't care less either way and I suspect they still don't care.

We only count the votes that are cast.
Follow the conversation FFS.
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:05
Annsyre
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I voted leave to get out of the EU lock, stock and barrel, simple as that, and not for any of the reasons you state.
I think that most Leave voters voted for exactly the same reason that you did. Lock stock and barrel sums it up nicely.
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:18
LostFool
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I think that most Leave voters voted for exactly the same reason that you did. Lock stock and barrel sums it up nicely.
Even if "most" Leaver voters had those reasons in mind (even though there is little evidence for it) then that still mean that they are in a minority of all voters.

Let's be charitable and assume 75% of Leave voters wanted a "hard" Exit. That means (0.25 * 52) + 48 = 61% didn't want it against 0.75 * 52 = 39% who did. To have an overall majority the "hard leavers" would have to represent 96% of all leavers.
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:22
Annsyre
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Even if "most" Leaver voters had those reasons in mind (even though there is little evidence for it) then that still mean that they are in a minority of all voters.

Let's be charitable and assume 75% of Leave voters wanted a "hard" Exit. That means (0.25 * 52) + 48 = 61% didn't want it against 0.75 * 52 = 39% who did. To have an overall majority the "hard leavers" would have to represent 96% of all leavers.


Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.

Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards.
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:26
koantemplation
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Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.

Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards.
Yes same here. No leaver I know wants a soft Brexit.
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:27
Penny Crayon
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Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.

Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards.
And most of the people I spoke to voted Remain - just goes to show you really can't tell at all can you?

I think all it proves is that many people talk/move/discuss with like minded folk.
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:29
jmclaugh
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Even if "most" Leaver voters had those reasons in mind (even though there is little evidence for it) then that still mean that they are in a minority of all voters.

Let's be charitable and assume 75% of Leave voters wanted a "hard" Exit. That means (0.25 * 52) + 48 = 61% didn't want it against 0.75 * 52 = 39% who did. To have an overall majority the "hard leavers" would have to represent 96% of all leavers.
Which is all very well but ignores the fact a 'soft' Brexit means the UK still has to accept FoM, EU rules and pay into the EU coffers. I struggle to believe that is what people envisaged when they voted to leave the EU which is why both sides in the campaign saw leaving the EU as also leaving the single market.
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:32
Mou Mou Land
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I haven't seen or heard her today banging on about her mandate?

I wonder why?
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:34
luckylegs
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Which is all very well but ignores the fact a 'soft' Brexit means the UK still has to accept FoM, EU rules and pay into the EU coffers. I struggle to believe that is what people envisaged when they voted to leave the EU which is why both sides in the campaign saw leaving the EU as also leaving the single market.
Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.

Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards.
Yes same here. No leaver I know wants a soft Brexit.
I don't want a soft Brexit.

Out is out.

We knew we were leaving the Single Market if we voted Leave Cameron and Osborne told us so and I believed them
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:37
howard h
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Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.

Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards.
If it had come before, maybe the referendum question would have been written a completely different way, giving the voters a choice of results should the vote be *out* - and even allowing those who remain an option on *out*....AND in return the option to remain BUT only on the grounds of a renegotiated deal (so the PM could go to the EU with a mandate, fix it or we leave).

Strange how in normal elections we get the choice of three or more candidates - and can change our mind further down the line, but with this where there are so many different outcomes, we got a choice of two. Not even a "don't know - ask again later" option.

Bizarre.
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Old 03-12-2016, 13:38
howard h
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I don't want a soft Brexit.

Out is out.

We knew we were leaving the Single Market if we voted Leave Cameron and Osborne told us so and I believed them
What will you do if it IS a soft Brexit...become a "moaner"??

Welcome to the club!
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