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Richmond Park by-election
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MARTYM8
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by LostFool:
“Even if "most" Leaver voters had those reasons in mind (even though there is little evidence for it) then that still mean that they are in a minority of all voters.

Let's be charitable and assume 75% of Leave voters wanted a "hard" Exit. That means (0.25 * 52) + 48 = 61% didn't want it against 0.75 * 52 = 39% who did. To have an overall majority the "hard leavers" would have to represent 96% of all leavers.”


They voted to leave the EU. And we were told by the leaders of both campaigns - it's on video - thar voting leave meant leaving the single market. Seems some remainers werent paying attention.

Being very blunt as the EU has made clear there are only two real options - hard Brexit or no Brexit.
*Sparkle*
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by koantemplation:
“Yes same here. No leaver I know wants a soft Brexit.”

And yet most of the Leavers I know were insisting that we'd have a Norway style model. I know they don't represent all Leavers, any more than the people you know represent them all. The people I saw insisting that we'd still keep certain rights were not part of the official Leave Campaign, but this is what they genuinely believed, and it appeared to be important to them.

What it boils down to is whether not those people who expected we'd have a Norway style model would rather a hard Brexit, or proper membership of the EU. I'd guess some will go each way, but none of us know how many of those people exist, and what proportion would prefer one over the other.

A 2nd referendum on the terms of the deal will clear that up once and for all. It's remarkable how many of those who are absolutely adamant that everyone who voted Leave still wants to Leave and wants a Hard Brexit, or that any kind of Brexit is preferable to staying, are scared of putting that to a vote. What have you got to lose? You'd have the benefit of being able to prove you were right all along, and think how smug you could be about it?
sangreal
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by koantemplation:
“Yes same here. No leaver I know wants a soft Brexit.”


The only thing we're certain of is that 51.9% voted to Leave the EU, and 48.1% voted to Remain in the EU, as that was the only question on the referendum ballot paper.

We don't know everyone's exact reasons for voting the way they did.

The thing is, we would have to leave the EU before any new deal can be negotiated.
So if/when we leave the EU, that will be referendum job done.

Then, as part of the ongoing negotiations, the government might decide to take us back into the EFTA (which we were in before we joined the EEC/EU, 1960-1972), so we can be in the Single Market again with free movement of goods, services & capital. They might also try for an emergency brake on free movement of workers.

The EFTA also frees us from CAP & CFP, and allows us to benefit from EFTA's current FTAs and also make our own separate FTAs with non-EEA countries.
The downsides being that we'll still need to pay a (lesser) fee, and still be bound by ECJ and some EU legislation (which companies would need to abide by anyway if they wanted to trade with the EU, regardless of the outcome).

This is why some Remainers are calling for a 2nd referendum on the deal.

If Leavers aren't satisifed with that proposed deal, they can vote against it, which would mean we'd still be out of the EU (because the 2 years would be up) and we'd therefore need to fallback to WTO rules only (aka Hard Brexit) whilst maybe another set of negotiations takes place.

You see, the 2nd referendum might actually benefit Leavers more than Remainers, depending on the outcome.....

What a carry on, eh?
luckylegs
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by howard h:
“What will you do if it IS a soft Brexit...become a "moaner"??

Welcome to the club!”

Oh do you mean that Cameron and Osborne lied?

No one could moan as much as the Remainers on DS

They've made a hobby out of it.
burneside
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Penny Crayon:
“And most of the people I spoke to voted Remain - just goes to show you really can't tell at all can you?

I think all it proves is that many people talk/move/discuss with like minded folk.”

As the Leave vote prevailed, what the Remoaners want is neither here nor there now, or shouldn't be.
Jayceef1
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Ash_M1:
“The EU Ref result and by-elections/general elections are not comparable. I've explained why.

It is absolutely about this. The former is virtually impossible to reverse, the latter are possible to reverse within a relatively short time frame.”

I know that, as I have already said. I accept the result of the vote in Richmond because it was won under the terms of the vote. Whether she won by 1800 votes or one.

It is the hypocrisy of the remainers who can't accept the result of the refernedum vote that was won under the terms of the vote. Again no matter if it was a margin of 17.4 million or one. One apparently is not a mandate because a margin of 4% is not enough, whereas the other with a margin of 4% is clear mandate to prevent the outcome of the ormer

It is irrelevant whether one can be reversed or not because everyone knew what each vote meant (apart from you and a few others apparently).
MARTYM8
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by luckylegs:
“Oh do you mean that Cameron and Osborne lied?

No one could moan as much as the Remainers on DS

They've made a hobby out of it.”

If we end up in the single market, with freedom of movement and the European courts still overseeing our laws and effectively paying for the EU but not having a vote at the table - which is this supposed soft Brexit - then we might as well not bother!

Mrs May will wish to remember that if she wants to win a landslide or a majority it's the leave voters who are most likely to vote Tory. Leave got more votes than remain in an estimated 450 plus seats. Remain only 200 - as it did very well in inner London, Scotland amd a few university towns but not many other places.

Those remain places are mostly voting Labour or Lib Dem anyway - it's the leavers and leave areas who will keep May in office. Most of London is pretty much finished long term for the Tories so just ignore it.
Jayceef1
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by allaorta:
“Looking to break your own record are you?”

Not much danger of that
Annsyre
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Penny Crayon:
“And most of the people I spoke to voted Remain - just goes to show you really can't tell at all can you?

I think all it proves is that many people talk/move/discuss with like minded folk.”

I talked to many people who voted Remain too. The referendum caused much discussion in my circles and some were adamant about Leaving and some were adamant about Remaining.
smudges dad
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by CSJB:
“A massive majority of eligible voters chose not to vote to stay in the EU, surely that must be a mandate to leave by any method ?”

Well, 52-48% is hardly a massive majority, but it's a mandate to leave the EU. However, as has been stated many times, what does leaving the EU actually entail? Did all 52% vote for the extreme version of Brexit with no trade deals with any EU country, no membership of any trans European organisations and strict border controls with zero EU immigration, of did most of them just envisage saving £350 million a week which would go into the NHS as promised?
Jayceef1
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Ash_M1:
“I'm not remotely interested in hearing what that right-winger named Hartley-Brewer says.”

It's not what she said but the answers that your beloved Olney gave, or rather didn't. She certainly isn't leader material that's for sure.
LostFool
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by jmclaugh:
“Which is all very well but ignores the fact a 'soft' Brexit means the UK still has to accept FoM, EU rules and pay into the EU coffers. .”

Sounds fine to me. It would make the exit negotiations simpler and quicker as many of the relationships would stay in place, there would be the least damage to the economy, no changes to the Northern Ireland and Gibraltar borders but we would be contributing less, have more control over many areas of policy areas and it might encourage more EU countries to form a looser relationship.

I think it's called "having our cake and eating it". What's not to like?
MARTYM8
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“I talked to many people who voted Remain too. The referendum caused much discussion in my circles and some were adamant about Leaving and some were adamant about Remaining.”

Being in London and working in an office full of right on white middle class young people who thought the world had ended on 24 June you would think no one voted leave. There are some leavers but we just discuss it in quiet corners or just laugh about it when they have left work early to hang out in some new bar for similar bright young things in Shoreditch. But I am off to a Christmas lunch event in Essex next week which is leave central - totally different in so many ways.

I certainly find the company of the latter more entertaining though - as they don't live in a bubble!

Asking people you know won't tell you what the country thinks - our collective vote on 23 June did that.
Landis
03-12-2016
Remain cannot stop Brexit.
Only a change of heart from Leavers can stop Brexit.

It seems amazing that so many have not noticed the Elephant in the Richmond.....even though it has been pointed out to them.
On this thread.
I will have to check to see if Professor John Curtice mentioned Observation in his critique of Brexiteers.

Tim Farron is reporting that one third of Tory Brexiteers in Richmond have switched to the Lib Dems.
andykn
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“Being in London and working in an office full of right on white middle class young people who thought the world had ended on 24 June you would think no one voted leave. There are some leavers but we just discuss it in quiet corners or just laugh about it when they have left work early to hang out in some new bar for similar bright young things in Shoreditch. But I am off to a Christmas lunch event in Essex next week which is leave central - totally different in so many ways.

I certainly find the company of the latter more entertaining though - as they don't live in a bubble!

Asking people you know won't tell you what the country thinks - our collective vote on 23 June did that.”

All that told us is that enough people thought there was 350m to spend on the NHS to make a difference.
MARTYM8
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by andykn:
“All that told us is that enough people thought there was 350m to spend on the NHS to make a difference.”

On the classic remainer refrain!

If we end up staying in and we are all not £4300 a year better off by 2030 will Osborne promise to write us all a cheque?

Cos you presumably only voted remain because you wanted that £4300?!
andykn
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“On the classic remainer refrain!

If we end up staying in and we are all not £4300 a year better off by 2030 will Osborne promise to write us all a cheque?

Cos you presumably only voted remain because you wanted that £4300?!”

I certainly didn't want to lose it, but that looks unlikely now that even David Davis seems to agree that being on WTO rules will be bad.
Jayceef1
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Most of the people that I spoke too were of the "lock tock and barrel" persuasion. No one that I know talked about anything else apart from OUT.

Prior to the result there was no talk of hard or soft. That all came afterwards.”

That is my experience too. Of all the leavers I know, not one wanted anything other than a complete break. This soft/hard bexit option only appeared to come into being by die hard remainers after the result as a means of trying to keep us in in all but name.

Not one has changed thier mind either. So where you get this 75% option is beyond me.
burneside
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Landis:
“Remain cannot stop Brexit.
Only a change of heart from Leavers can stop Brexit.

It seems amazing that so many have not noticed the Elephant in the Richmond.....even though it has been pointed out to them.
On this thread.
I will have to check to see if Professor John Curtice mentioned Observation in his critique of Brexiteers.

Tim Farron is reporting that one third of Tory Brexiteers in Richmond have switched to the Lib Dems.”

I would take whatever Farron says with a very large pinch of salt. He has no credibility.
koantemplation
03-12-2016
Controlling Freedom of Movement is a red line.

Whatever happens we can not allow Freedom of Movement, so if that means we are out of the single market, then so be it.

If the Tories give in on that issue they have sold the leavers out and there will have been a true injustice.
Jayceef1
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Penny Crayon:
“And most of the people I spoke to voted Remain - just goes to show you really can't tell at all can you?

I think all it proves is that many people talk/move/discuss with like minded folk.”

That was not the point it was about whether leavers want a hard or soft brexit. So amongst the leavers there should be a few who want a soft brexit. No one I know does.
Sport1
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by koantemplation:
“Controlling Freedom of Movement is a red line.

Whatever happens we can not allow Freedom of Movement, so if that means we are out of the single market, then so be it.

If the Tories give in on that issue they have sold the leavers out and there will have been a true injustice.”

Freedom of movement will be kept, they will just call it something different.

Brexit is going to prove to be a huge disappointment for many.
LostFool
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“Being in London and working in an office full of right on white middle class young people who thought the world had ended on 24 June you would think no one voted leave. There are some leavers but we just discuss it in quiet corners or just laugh about it when they have left work early to hang out in some new bar for similar bright young things in Shoreditch. But I am off to a Christmas lunch event in Essex next week which is leave central - totally different in so many ways.

I certainly find the company of the latter more entertaining though - as they don't live in a bubble!”

Of course they live in a bubble - just a different Essex-shaped one.

Actually, I have a similar experience. At work (mostly graduate professions, mixed races and nationalities) it is hard to find a single Leave voice. In my local pub (very white and mostly non-professional) the talk is almost entirely Leave and anti-immigration. I Ignore it as I go to the pub to drink beer and watch football not talk politics.
andykn
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Jayceef1:
“That is my experience too. Of all the leavers I know, not one wanted anything other than a complete break. This soft/hard bexit option only appeared to come into being by die hard remainers after the result as a means of trying to keep us in in all but name.

Not one has changed thier mind either. So where you get this 75% option is beyond me.”

Given how close the result was it's inconceivable there were few soft Brexiters in the leave vote.
jjwales
03-12-2016
Originally Posted by Jayceef1:
“That was not the point it was about whether leavers want a hard or soft brexit. So amongst the leavers there should be a few who want a soft brexit. No one I know does.”

What about all the Leavers you don't know? As has been said elsewhere, people tend to mix in social circles with similar views.
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