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Richmond Park by-election


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Old 01-12-2016, 23:07
TelevisionUser
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Politics Home saying Lib Dems just might have made it and Tories gloomy. Why are they gloomy with no horse in the race eh?
If that is so, then take a look at the potential consequences:

But by-elections have the power to stop divisive Prime Ministers in their tracks. Our victory at Ribble Valley, for instance, killed the poll tax. And on Thursday a victory for Liberal Democrat Sarah Olney in Richmond Park and North Kingston has the potential to kill an even greater evil: Hard Brexit.

Anyway, the BBC's predicting a result at about 3am.
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Old 01-12-2016, 23:11
MARTYM8
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Seat which voted 70 per cent remain votes for a pro remain candidate - but the pro leave candidate gets way more than 30 per cent on a very low turnout.

Not sure what that result would tell you about the country's attitude to hard Brexit in reality. No more than UKIP winning the Sleaford by election would suggest the UK wants hard Brexit.
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Old 01-12-2016, 23:12
*Sparkle*
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They are very slow in Richmond - they always have very late declarations for an urban seat.

If the turnout is as low as some people are saying though surely they might finish early.

Seems the winner may have been apathy - elections in December are not exactly going to deliver big turnouts.
I saw some graph showing turn-out by month, and December was the lowest. We're just into December, but it's a very cold day today in Richmond and a lot of people won't want to leave the house unless they have to. And Thursday night is late night shopping, and most people just got paid!
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Old 01-12-2016, 23:22
Aurora13
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Thousand either way in terms of majority is a shot across the bows of Theresa May and her cabal. Especially after Whitney result. Ploughing on claiming they don't need to speak with / consult other elected MP's will look threadbare.
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Old 01-12-2016, 23:36
apaul
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Goldsmith is very popular as an M.P.
So popular, he's struggling to get 20% of the electorate to vote for him.
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Old 01-12-2016, 23:39
Under Soul
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Great news for the LDs in local by election in Chichester

Southbourne (Chichester) result:
LDEM: 57.7% (+15.8)
CON: 25.8% (-32.3)
UKIP: 11.8% (+11.8)
LAB: 4.7% (+4.7)
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:15
Aftershow
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Goldsmith is very popular as an M.P.
How popular he actually is remains to be seen...
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:19
Soppyfan
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Great news for the LDs in local by election in Chichester

Southbourne (Chichester) result:
LDEM: 57.7% (+15.8)
CON: 25.8% (-32.3)
UKIP: 11.8% (+11.8)
LAB: 4.7% (+4.7)
That's a swing of 24% from Con to LD, I think that's the highest Tory to Libdem swing in a local by-election this year.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:23
wizzywick
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That's a swing of 24% from Con to LD, I think that's the highest Tory to Libdem swing in a local by-election this year.
People don't mind the LibDems in councils. Having them in Government though with Tim Farron at the helm is another issue!

EDIT: Although the LibDems are apparently running Zac Goldsmith very closely and could beat him!
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:29
MARTYM8
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How popular he actually is remains to be seen...
Dragging people out to vote in a rather pointless by election 3 weeks before Christmas may have been a step too far even for the posh folk of Richmond.

Still seems close - LDs doing best on the day but postal votes more pro Zac.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:32
wizzywick
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Dragging people out to vote in a rather pointless by election 3 weeks before Christmas may have been a step too far even for the posh folk of Richmond.

Still seems close - LDs doing best on the day but postal votes more pro Zac.
Do you think Zac will win? The result only affects the Tories in as much as they'll lose a bit of opposition support in votes as their majority has already dropped.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:36
MARTYM8
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Do you think Zac will win? The result only affects the Tories in as much as they'll lose a bit of opposition support in votes as their majority has already dropped.
It is too close to call frankly - I hope it's a win for principled and honourable rather than cynical opportunism though!
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:40
Aftershow
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Do you think Zac will win? The result only affects the Tories in as much as they'll lose a bit of opposition support in votes as their majority has already dropped.
If he loses, it'll give their Commons majority a trim that they could do without.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:41
wizzywick
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If he loses, it'll give their Commons majority a trim that they could do without.
They have already lost a bit of their majority regardless. He's standing as an independent.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:44
Welsh-lad
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Zac Goldsmith does have a diva complex.

I think nearly every MP who flounces and calls a by-election like this does really.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:44
Aftershow
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They have already lost a bit of their majority regardless. He's standing as an independent.
In name only. Even if he doesn't retake the whip, he'll vote with them on the vast majority of issues anyway.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:45
Aurora13
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They have already lost a bit of their majority regardless. He's standing as an independent.
Nobody believes he is an Independent the voters in Richmond or the Tory Party in Westminster. This election is a £250K vanity project. Having said that I would be very surprised if he doesn't win but with a low majority. It's the message being sent to Tories in two of their most safe seats in Whitney and Richmond that matters.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:46
Aurora13
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Zac Goldsmith does have a diva complex.

I think nearly every MP who flounces and calls a by-election like this does really.
David Davis being a prime example.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:48
Fizzbin
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BBC London reporting the turnout is 53.6%, meaning 41,367votes
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:49
wizzywick
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Nobody believes he is an Independent the voters in Richmond or the Tory Party in Westminster. This election is a £250K vanity project. Having said that I would be very surprised if he doesn't win but with a low majority. It's the message being sent to Tories in two of their most safe seats in Whitney and Richmond that matters.
A 54% turnout apparently! High for December according to Neil. I guess it is considering Labour won by-elections with 34% in the summer!
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:51
Aurora13
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A 54% turnout apparently! High for December according to Neil. I guess it is considering Labour won by-elections with 34% in the summer!
What was the turnout in May 2015? Given the demographic I'd expect it to be high even though it was a very safe seat.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:53
Fizzbin
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What was the turnout in May 2015? Given the demographic I'd expect it to be high even though it was a very safe seat.
76.5% - 59,101 votes
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:54
nethwen
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I forgot all about this taking place today.

Is Andrew Neil covering this through the night?

It was nice to see Peter Whittle just then.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:54
Welsh-lad
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Andrew Neil is such a brazen brexiter.
He didn't much like some of the pertinent points made by the LibDem just then, hence shutting her down and belittling her.
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Old 02-12-2016, 00:54
wizzywick
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This LibDem woman is bonkers! She thinks that many people in Remain areas like Twickenham are under represented and that Tories should be in danger! She fails to mention that these areas are already represented by Remain supporting Tory MP's so what's the incentive of voting LibDem?
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