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Old 28-11-2016, 13:16
james_von05
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Just done some calculation and voting result speculation, I found and I believe over marking conspiracy theory to save the judges’ favourite is somehow true.

J-Score Public Vote Total

Danny 6 6 12

Louise 6 3 9

Ore 5 2 7

Claudia 4 5 9

Rinder 3 1 4

Ed 2 4 6



· Assuming Danny top the voting

· Ed only got 4 or lower. He could’ve been avoided the DO if he got 5 or higher.

· Claudia’s public vote was not lower than 4.

· Assuming Louise got 3 or 2 and finished above Rinder.

· Ore got at least 2 and higher and finished above Rinder.

· Unfortunately the data suggest Rinder was in the bottom 2 but highly plausible came last.

My conclusion is the judges deliberately over-marked and fixed the Cha cha challenge to make sure Ore and Louise avoid the dance off.

Maybe this weekend they are going to be fair to everyone now that ED is gone.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:19
Monkseal
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Just one week ago both Louise and Ore *definitely* got a higher public vote than Claudia. Why would they have to protect them over her?
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:24
james_von05
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Just one week ago both Louise and Ore *definitely* got a higher public vote than Claudia. Why would they have to protect them over her?
I am 100% sure Claudia was in the top 3 of public vote... you could feel the outcry here and everywhere... and more people throw a vote for her coz they feel the injustice... and yeah she avoided the dance off.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:29
philltee
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Just one week ago both Louise and Ore *definitely* got a higher public vote than Claudia. Why would they have to protect them over her?
It does seem a little too coincidental that they have Claudia the same score as Ore, so that Ore would definitely go above Claudia after the group dance off; and they then put Louise as the winner (when she wasn't even shown on TV during that dance and many have said she was by no means the best), just to even up her score with Danny.

We have no idea how Louise is doing in the public vote, she has always been to our near top of the judges leader board. Hopefully over the next couple of weeks her public voting will be tested, as I have a funny feeling she is near to, or at the bottom iicvotepublic vote for the final five remaining.

Claudia for the win imo!
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:30
Skyrah
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What makes you think Ore was 2nd from bottom in the public vote he has a lot of support out there, especially now the Judges have shown their hands on who are their favourites... Danny & Louise.

Danny 6+6=12

Claudia 4+5=9

Ore 5+4=9

Louise 6+3=9

Ed 2+2=4

Rinder 3+1=4

That's how I see the final result table

It's obvious Louise is struggling with the public vote hence why she is being overmarked week in and week out.

Claudia, got the Judges backlash vote by the public last weekend, I am pretty sure it's a one off unless the Judges undermark her again this weekend.
I'm sure Louise & Claudia isn't popular with the public
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:32
Ann_Dancer
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Ed could have been as high as second in the vote. In fact it is a quite likely scenario if he'd been polling high in previous weeks as reported. So not sure much can be inferred, especially since Louise and Danny's scores are actually swappable.

Danny 6 6 12
Louise 6 2 8
Ore 5 3 8
Claudia 4 4 8
Rinder 3 1 4
Ed 2 5 7
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:34
james_von05
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Ed could have been as high as second in the vote. In fact it is a quite likely scenario.

Danny 6 6 12
Louise 6 2 8
Ore 5 3 8
Claudia 4 4 8
Rinder 3 1 4
Ed 2 5 7
I do not think Louise got lower than Ore... she never been in bottom 2.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:35
johartuk
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Just one week ago both Louise and Ore *definitely* got a higher public vote than Claudia. Why would they have to protect them over her?
Perhaps TPTB see Louise and Ore as finalists - hence keeping their judges' scores high. I thought Louise's waltz was nicely done, but worth three 10s? I expected four 9s, or three 9s with an 8 from Craig. It almost felt like "Danny got four 10s, so we have to give some 10s to Louise and Ore to keep them in 2nd/3rd". Then to compound things, Lousie 'won' the Cha-cha-thon, conveniently pushing her into a tie with Danny on the overall leader board.

I suspect that she might not be doing that well in the public vote - she hasn't really been tested in the latter stages of the competition, because of her place on the leaderboard.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:36
philltee
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What makes you think Ore was 2nd from bottom in the public vote he has a lot of support out there, especially now the Judges have shown their hands on who are their favourites... Danny & Louise.

Danny 6+6=12

Claudia 4+5=9

Ore 5+4=9

Louise 6+3=9

Ed 2+2=4

Rinder 3+1=4

That's how I see the final result table

It's obvious Louise is struggling with the public vote hence why she is being overmarked week in and week out.

Claudia, got the Judges backlash vote by the public last weekend, I am pretty sure it's a one off unless the Judges undermark her again this weekend.
I'm sure Louise & Claudia isn't popular with the public
Why are you sure claudia is not popular with the public? All polls and forums/social media suggest she is second only to Danny.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:41
Monkseal
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It does seem a little too coincidental that they have Claudia the same score as Ore, so that Ore would definitely go above Claudia after the group dance off; and they then put Louise as the winner (when she wasn't even shown on TV during that dance and many have said she was by no means the best), just to even up her score with Danny.

We have no idea how Louise is doing in the public vote, she has always been to our near top of the judges leader board. Hopefully over the next couple of weeks her public voting will be tested, as I have a funny feeling she is near to, or at the bottom iicvotepublic vote for the final five remaining.

Claudia for the win imo!
Just flor clarity, what we know :

Danny : beat Daisy in wk 6

Louise : beat Laura in wk 3, beat Daisy in wk 5 and wk 6, beat Claudia in wk 9

Claudia : beat Daisy in wk 5, beat Ore in wk 7, lost to Ed, Judge Rinder, Ore, and Louise in wk 9, beat Judge Rinder in wk 10

Judge Rinder : beat Anastacia in wk 2, beat Tameka and Laura in wk 3, beat Anastacia and Naga in wk 4, beat Lesley and Daisy in wk 5, beat Daisy in wk 6, beat Laura and Ore in wk 7, beat Daisy and Greg in wk 8, beat Greg and Claudia in wk 9, lost to Claudia in wk 10

Ore : beat Daisy in wk 6, lost to Danny, Daisy, Claudia, Judge Rinder, Greg and Ed in wk 7 , beat Claudia in wk 9
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:41
yohinnchild
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Why are you sure claudia is not popular with the public? All polls and forums/social media suggest she is second only to Danny.
I'm A Cludia fan... however she was in the DO only the week before so that indicates some form of popularity problem. Although she was on first and then had a shed load of 10's after her performance which probably didn't help.

I think this weekend will be interesting with regards who's in the DO
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:42
bendymixer
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this is all speculation and not based on any facts

It is all based on the belief by some that the cha cha thon was rigged - we saw too little on the TV to judge anything - but i believe Brendan when he said overall he thought Louise was the winner of it and he did have a full view AND he has the experience to judge it
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:47
james_von05
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I'm A Cludia fan... however she was in the DO only the week before so that indicates some form of popularity problem. Although she was on first and then had a shed load of 10's after her performance which probably didn't help.

I think this weekend will be interesting with regards who's in the DO
I believe that can not afford to have Ore vs Claudia or rinder in the dance off... maybe that is why they protected Ore.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:48
Ann_Dancer
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I do not think Louise got lower than Ore... she never been in bottom 2.
Well there is even less evidence to suggest that Judge Rinder is polling bottom (as you and I have him in our examples) as he has been in a more precarious position over the weeks but has not been in the dance off. Just making the point that you can do what you like with the numbers. There are not enough definites to go on.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:51
james_von05
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this is all speculation and not based on any facts

It is all based on the belief by some that the cha cha thon was rigged - we saw too little on the TV to judge anything - but i believe Brendan when he said overall he thought Louise was the winner of it and he did have a full view AND he has the experience to judge it
Yeah maybe but with the data available it is not rocket science to apply a little bit of permutation and logic to get as close to the actual result.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:51
davegold
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Oh no, please not another thread of dodgy maths.

If we keep it frighteningly simple, the people who go into the dance off tend to be
- low on the leader board, low in public vote
- low on the leader board, middle of public vote
- middle of leader board, low in public vote

Since Ed and Rinder were both bottom of the leader board we haven't learned that much about their public vote or anyone else's. All we know is that Ed and Rinder were low/middle of the public vote and that Claudia/Ore were not low on the public vote. Rinder had less public votes than Claudia otherwise she would have been in the dance off instead of him.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:54
james_von05
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Well there is even less evidence to suggest that Judge Rinder is polling bottom (as you and I have him in our examples) as he has been in a more precarious position over the weeks but has not been in the dance off. Just making the point that you can do what you like with the numbers. There are not enough definites to go on.
But rinder was in the dance off tho so it is highly probable louise is higher than rinder and I believe Ore.
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Old 28-11-2016, 13:58
The Swampster
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Why are you sure claudia is not popular with the public? All polls and forums/social media suggest she is second only to Danny.
I don't know if she's popular or not. Based by my own feelings, I suspect the field is quite even - I've put votes the way of ALL five of the remaining dancers this season. They've all produced great dances.
I think her jive last week was unusually bad by her standards, her AT was a return to form, which probably ensured she got the benefit of the 'bottom-two bounce'.
Plus, Tess and Claudia helped to highlight the idea that she is undermarked by going on about 'what does she have to do to get a 10?' and asking her 'were you disappointed in your marks?', which probably doesn't do her any harm.

It's a real shame the BBC didn't cancel the dance off the week Will departed. We've missed out on an extra seven celebrity dances over the course of series (so far...) and one deserving couple will sacrifice their place in the final as there's now only room for three. That seems such a pity to me.
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Old 28-11-2016, 14:01
What name??
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What makes you think everyone is a fan and than most people don't vote for who they like best that week?

I don't think you can say X is more popular except in a certain point of time unless they are disliked for some non dance related reason and the dislike follows them from week to week and there isn't much of that.
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Old 28-11-2016, 14:03
Ann_Dancer
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But rinder was in the dance off tho so it is highly probable louise is higher than rinder and I believe Ore.
No. In your example you could swap Louise and Judge Rinder's votes and still have the same dance off and there is no reason to suggest it is less probable since neither had been in the dance off in previous weeks.

My argument is simply that we don't know enough.
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Old 28-11-2016, 14:06
james_von05
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What makes you think everyone is a fan and than most people don't vote for who they like best that week?

I don't think you can say X is more popular except in a certain point of time unless they are disliked for some non dance related reason and the dislike follows them from week to week and there isn't much of that.
This speculation is just for last week... and I placed Louise higher than Ore because she danced better than Ore... more plausible assumption that she was voted higher than Ore.
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Old 28-11-2016, 14:08
james_von05
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No. In your example you could swap Louise and Judge Rinder's votes and still have the same dance off and there is no reason to suggest it is less probable since neither5 had been in the dance off in previous weeks.

My argument is simply that we don't know enough.
Yes you are right.... edited. Lol
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Old 28-11-2016, 14:48
MaggieMcGee
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How is the public vote ranked were there to be a tie in the number of votes for the contestants? Is it done in the same way as the judges' ties?
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Old 28-11-2016, 15:00
vald
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It is quite possible that Ed and Rob polled lowest with the viewers.

1 Many felt it was their time to go and stopped voting for them. I know I did.
2 Their dances were neither good nor entertaining meaning there was no good reason to vote for them.
3 The contest is coming to an end and there was a big risk of two of the better dancers being in the bottom two.

In that scenario the other dancers could have been in any order and still been safe.
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Old 28-11-2016, 15:03
james_von05
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How is the public vote ranked were there to be a tie in the number of votes for the contestants? Is it done in the same way as the judges' ties?
The public vote is the tie breaker.. but I dont think it will ever happen to have same judges score and same amount of public vote.
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