DS Forums

 
 

Bet advice - Saara Aalto 100/1


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 29-11-2016, 11:52
ben_haden
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 19

In my wildest dreams.....I never imagined this happening, but somehow it has

I have £50 E/W at 100/1 on Saara Aalto to win x factor! (placed after she was bottom 2 for 2 consecutive weeks)

But I have no idea what to do.....

I am currently being offered £620 to cash out which seems very low to me...

Will she definitely make the final 3 or shall I cash out?
ben_haden is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old 29-11-2016, 11:52
FusionFury
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 12,884
Worth a squid, no?

I'd give it another week and see what they are offering then..

Well done, you will be rich ! minted !
FusionFury is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2016, 12:22
Liete
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Onchan, Isle of Man
Posts: 1,672
I'd perhaps wait until the song choices are revealed.

The producers definitely want Matt and 5am in the final and with the sing off, both will be there unless they are against each other which is highly unlikely.

I'd guess they would prefer Saara to take the 3rd slot over Emily at this stage as it makes a better story and she could probably bring more to the table in the final. Who knows though?
Liete is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2016, 12:25
jaydash
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,409
Assuming you got 1/4 odds for a place (it might even be 1/3 odds), if she comes second you would get £1250 profit plus your £50 stake back. On that basis, given that she looks like she's heading that way I would be tempted to leave it in place unless the £600 would make a huge difference to you.

In other words, if you are a regular gambler and have lost ££hundreds before and can shrug it off if you lose, then let it ride. However if this was something of a one-off bet, you're a bit skint and you could really do with the money for Xmas pressies, car insurance etc etc etc, consider taking the £600 just in case she comes 3rd and you get nothing back*. It's guaranteed profit after all. That said, your cash-out figure should be more like £1000 at this stage... unless there's not enough people wanting to back her.

Of course, if Saara makes it to the last week your cash-out position could be even stronger, and if she wins you'd be in for a bumper return of over £6000. She certainly seems to have the momentum at the moment (you could have got 22/1 only last week but now it's just 3/1), however it's difficult to work out her true popularity because a lot of foreigners are skewing things. FWIW, I have moved more of my money onto Matt than Saara recently, but then I haven't done Each Way bets like you have.

*Just one caveat: you seem to think the bookies will pay-out on three places, but e.w. bets on this market are often two places (Winner and Runner-up), so just double-check that before you make a decision.
jaydash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2016, 17:28
Wee_One
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 676
The seem quite low cash out rates for £50 at 100-1!

I had £10 on at 28-1 and am offered £75 at present. In the same boat though, think I will let it ride one more week (especially if no sing-off as I don't expect Saara to poll 4th). Of course, you have a lot more to lose than me! Good luck though.
Wee_One is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 29-11-2016, 17:42
Sammy2
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 2,376
That's an amazing bet well done. £50 e/w means £100 staked I assume?

If you're interested in cashing out, you could create a Betfair account and cash out the winner portion of the bet for around £1,150 (although this would mean depositing that amount into Betfair and possibly waiting a few days to get matched at decent odds).

You could PM me if you wanted more help with this.
Sammy2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-11-2016, 20:59
JustSome1
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 31
Well done!

I would hold on to it. Though I lost on Trump so what do I know.
JustSome1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-11-2016, 21:22
Saint4805
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 475
They definitely want a Matt, 5AM and Saara final.

I fully expect Emily to be up first this weekend with poor song choices. She will be in the bottom two with 5AM and they will save the boys.
Saint4805 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 30-11-2016, 21:43
topcat3
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,596
TBH I don't think Saara's gonna win. I think it will be Matt, Emily, Saara.

I'd cash it in.
topcat3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 01:12
spiidey
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Scotland
Posts: 16,054
I'd cash it in. Especially when you see where she's visiting this weekend.
spiidey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 08:00
FesterJester
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 49
Saara is going to the Finnish embassy this week. This tactic always works. Cash it in, She is a goner.
FesterJester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 09:27
jaydash
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,409
Spidey, do you want to elaborate?
jaydash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 10:07
FesterJester
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 49
Finnish embassy. I saw him on another forum so I know what he is talking about.
FesterJester is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 10:21
jaydash
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,409
Finnish embassy. I saw him on another forum so I know what he is talking about.
Yeah, but people reading this probably don't know what that means.

I presume it means that some people say ITV showing such a VT will derail her chances of winning by re-iterating the fact that she isn't British (as they were accused of doing to Andrea Faustini a couple of years back). However, plenty of people believe that it won't negatively affect Saara because she/ Dermot has basically talked about or referred to Finland throughout the whole series and viewers are fully aware.
jaydash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 11:33
Cookmeparsnips
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,102
I'd cash out. I'm risk averse though and I'd sooner have the 600 quid than nothing especially this time of year!
Cookmeparsnips is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 13:09
walterwhite
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 21,729
Cash out seems low. Try betfair and back against her.
walterwhite is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 16:41
nojunkmail
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: The Pool
Posts: 1,350
Is it 50 e/w total bet 100 or 25e/w total bet 50?

You could cash it out and put 300 on at 5/2

At least you'll have some profit with potential for more.
nojunkmail is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 17:57
Makson
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 17,388
Life is too short to play it safe....put your faith in Saara and believe she can win!
Makson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 20:14
Bails HolyGrail
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 182
Are your E/W terms 1st 3 or 1st 2 ?

If they are 1st 3 your best plan would be to back Saara to be eliminated this week at a best price currently of 7/2.

Have say £200 on her to be eliminated and then you have guaranteed a tidy profit whatever the outcome.

Whatever you do,do not take the cash out option.It is offering you a very poor deal mathematically.
Bails HolyGrail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 23:53
jaydash
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 1,409
Is it 50 e/w total bet 100 or 25e/w total bet 50?

You could cash it out and put 300 on at 5/2
The o/p's bet was £50 each way, so they staked £100 in all. It seems unlikely that they would cash-out, get £600 + their £100 stake back, and put £300 of it on Saara to win at 5/2 which would net them a potential total profit of just £1050 (including the £300 they kept) if she wins, but only £300 if she doesn't win, when if they just leave the original bet in place they stand to make £1250 profit if Saara comes second and £6000 if she wins.

NB. This all assumes 1/4 odds and two places for the e.w. part of the bet. O/p are you coming back into thread to clarify the terms you got and give us your thoughts?
jaydash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2016, 00:01
ben_haden
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 19
Hi guys thanks for your advise
Bet was £100 (£50 E/W)
1/4 odds but for top 2 places

I have decided to leave it as despite the odds, I think she has a real chance of winning this, and think she will get through to next week surely in a week that is made for her
ben_haden is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2016, 04:10
Mythicalmadman
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 227
Its all kinda been said here but you could put 30 on at 7/2 at least that way if she goes you have your money back, your essentially giving yourself a free bet
Mythicalmadman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2016, 13:44
Squatch
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 629
Yes, don't cash out!

I really want Saara to win for you! 😊
Squatch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2016, 13:50
ben_haden
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 19
cash out has increased to £780 following song choice for this week
ben_haden is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-12-2016, 14:21
JustSome1
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 31
It's gonna top £1000 after the semis if Saara is not in the bottom 2 this week.
JustSome1 is offline   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 21:37.