In my wildest dreams.....I never imagined this happening, but somehow it has

I have £50 E/W at 100/1 on Saara Aalto to win x factor! (placed after she was bottom 2 for 2 consecutive weeks)

But I have no idea what to do.....

I am currently being offered £620 to cash out which seems very low to me...

Will she definitely make the final 3 or shall I cash out?

Worth a squid, no?

I'd give it another week and see what they are offering then..

Well done, you will be rich ! minted !

I'd perhaps wait until the song choices are revealed.

The producers definitely want Matt and 5am in the final and with the sing off, both will be there unless they are against each other which is highly unlikely.

I'd guess they would prefer Saara to take the 3rd slot over Emily at this stage as it makes a better story and she could probably bring more to the table in the final. Who knows though?

Assuming you got 1/4 odds for a place (it might even be 1/3 odds), if she comes second you would get £1250 profit plus your £50 stake back. On that basis, given that she looks like she's heading that way I would be tempted to leave it in place unless the £600 would make a huge difference to you.

In other words, if you are a regular gambler and have lost ££hundreds before and can shrug it off if you lose, then let it ride. However if this was something of a one-off bet, you're a bit skint and you could really do with the money for Xmas pressies, car insurance etc etc etc, consider taking the £600 just in case she comes 3rd and you get nothing back*. It's guaranteed profit after all. That said, your cash-out figure should be more like £1000 at this stage... unless there's not enough people wanting to back her.

Of course, if Saara makes it to the last week your cash-out position could be even stronger, and if she wins you'd be in for a bumper return of over £6000. She certainly seems to have the momentum at the moment (you could have got 22/1 only last week but now it's just 3/1), however it's difficult to work out her true popularity because a lot of foreigners are skewing things. FWIW, I have moved more of my money onto Matt than Saara recently, but then I haven't done Each Way bets like you have.

*Just one caveat: you seem to think the bookies will pay-out on three places, but e.w. bets on this market are often two places (Winner and Runner-up), so just double-check that before you make a decision.

The seem quite low cash out rates for £50 at 100-1!

I had £10 on at 28-1 and am offered £75 at present. In the same boat though, think I will let it ride one more week (especially if no sing-off as I don't expect Saara to poll 4th). Of course, you have a lot more to lose than me! Good luck though.

That's an amazing bet well done. £50 e/w means £100 staked I assume?

If you're interested in cashing out, you could create a Betfair account and cash out the winner portion of the bet for around £1,150 (although this would mean depositing that amount into Betfair and possibly waiting a few days to get matched at decent odds).

You could PM me if you wanted more help with this.

Well done!

I would hold on to it. Though I lost on Trump so what do I know.

They definitely want a Matt, 5AM and Saara final.

I fully expect Emily to be up first this weekend with poor song choices. She will be in the bottom two with 5AM and they will save the boys.

TBH I don't think Saara's gonna win. I think it will be Matt, Emily, Saara.

I'd cash it in.

I'd cash it in. Especially when you see where she's visiting this weekend.

Saara is going to the Finnish embassy this week. This tactic always works. Cash it in, She is a goner.

Spidey, do you want to elaborate?

Finnish embassy. I saw him on another forum so I know what he is talking about.

Yeah, but people reading this probably don't know what that means.

I presume it means that some people say ITV showing such a VT will derail her chances of winning by re-iterating the fact that she isn't British (as they were accused of doing to Andrea Faustini a couple of years back). However, plenty of people believe that it won't negatively affect Saara because she/ Dermot has basically talked about or referred to Finland throughout the whole series and viewers are fully aware.

I'd cash out. I'm risk averse though and I'd sooner have the 600 quid than nothing especially this time of year!

Cash out seems low. Try betfair and back against her.

Is it 50 e/w total bet 100 or 25e/w total bet 50?

You could cash it out and put 300 on at 5/2

At least you'll have some profit with potential for more.

Life is too short to play it safe....put your faith in Saara and believe she can win!

Are your E/W terms 1st 3 or 1st 2 ?

If they are 1st 3 your best plan would be to back Saara to be eliminated this week at a best price currently of 7/2.

Have say £200 on her to be eliminated and then you have guaranteed a tidy profit whatever the outcome.

Whatever you do,do not take the cash out option.It is offering you a very poor deal mathematically.

The o/p's bet was £50 each way, so they staked £100 in all. It seems unlikely that they would cash-out, get £600 + their £100 stake back, and put £300 of it on Saara to win at 5/2 which would net them a potential total profit of just £1050 (including the £300 they kept) if she wins, but only £300 if she doesn't win, when if they just leave the original bet in place they stand to make £1250 profit if Saara comes second and £6000 if she wins.

NB. This all assumes 1/4 odds and two places for the e.w. part of the bet. O/p are you coming back into thread to clarify the terms you got and give us your thoughts?

Hi guys thanks for your advise
Bet was £100 (£50 E/W)
1/4 odds but for top 2 places

I have decided to leave it as despite the odds, I think she has a real chance of winning this, and think she will get through to next week surely in a week that is made for her

Its all kinda been said here but you could put 30 on at 7/2 at least that way if she goes you have your money back, your essentially giving yourself a free bet

Yes, don't cash out!

I really want Saara to win for you! 😊

cash out has increased to £780 following song choice for this week

It's gonna top £1000 after the semis if Saara is not in the bottom 2 this week.