UKIP: Victoria Ayling
Labour: Jim Clarke
Conservative: Dr. Caroline Johnson
Lincolnshire Independents: Marianne Overton
Liberal Democrats: Ross Pepper

There is also a flurry of independents standing in the election.

Labour finished second in 2015 but it wouldn't be too surprising to see them finish fourth on Thursday. Sleaford really isn't fertile ground for the Lib Dems these days but they may pick up some disaffected europhile Labour voters.

In a heavily leave constituency UKIP will be hoping to see a large increase in their percentage of the vote. However, their candidate is an absolute nutter, supported Raheem Kassam for the leadership and constantly makes digs at her would-be only colleague in parliament - Douglas Carswell.

UKIP is ailing?

This by-election would give a better indication of Labour's declining position with voters. The Tories should have this one, but I am more interested in the fortunes of Labour. Ideally they shouldn't need to worry to much, but it will be an indicator of the perception of Mr Corbyn.

Their candidate is local and drives a refuse lorry.

They have all been interviewed by the local paper.

http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2016/12/w...nhs-transport/

Drives a refuse lorry. So what?

They are mostly closely interrelated up that way - so UKIP should do well.

Politician who is used to talking about rubbish all day....

So nothing. I watched his interview and passed on the information that he gave of himself. He is local and drives a refuse lorry.

This is a test of Labour but also Tories. Lib Dems are cutting into Tory vote from the left. This will be about UKIP cutting into vote from right. Labour just not in the game.

I believe the Tories will hold this but with a reduced majority.

However, if the Libdems take second place, that alone would be a remarkable achievement.

Indeed and Labour lose their deposit!

How did the vote split at the 2015 GE in this constituency? Be interested to see who the Remain voters need to back.

Not Lib Dem territory. It's between Tories and UKIP.

2015 results

Conservative
34,805 total votes taken.
56.2% share of the total vote
+4.6% change in share of the votes

Labour
10,690 total votes taken.
17.3% share of the total vote
+0.4% change in share of the votes

UKIP
9,716 total votes taken.
15.7% share of the total vote
+12.1% change in share of the votes

Liberal Democrat
3,500 total votes taken.
5.7% share of the total vote
-12.5% change in share of the votes

Lincolnshire Independents
3,233 total votes taken.
5.2% share of the total vote
-1.2

The bookies are quite confident of a Tory victory.

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics...lection/winner

The odds are remarkably similar to those for remain the day before the Reffy!! On the Wednesday i saw IIRC something like 10-1 against leave, deffo 6 -1 and I seriously though of dumping a ton on it, so when we did lose at least I'd have a brand new 4k camera to look forward to.

Stupid boy......

It could be amusing if UKIP win, then. They could end up with a split in a parliamentary party of 2.

Thanks mate. Much appreciated. Labour are a distant second aren't they. I suspect the tories will hold the seat with a reduced majority. The Labour vote will be down, votes picked up by The Dems.

its a test of the sanity and ntelligence of voters. We have the Liberals claiming that the government is going for a hard brexit, and should ignore immigration as an issue , and UKIP claiming that its heading for a soft brexit that will betray the Leave voters.

Both can't be right. And what we get won't be determined by May anyway. Anyone thats taken in by either party's lies and hype, really shouldn't be allowed to vote.

Looking at those figures you would say that it's a certain Tory hold but this is 2016 and political predictions haven't been my strong suit.
Who knows what a well run local campaign and a low turnout might give us?

this is between the tories and ukip. it would be nice if ukip wins as a boost for the new leader and the party.

LibDems don't do either remarkable or achievement.

Former Kippers will surely defect to the Tories, unless they get a bounce from their new leader. Their vote was up by 12% last time: can there be many more votes for them to mop up?

The Lib Dems should pick up votes from Remainers and soft Brexiters in the Tories and Labour (worth remembering that the pro-Brexit MP resigned because he didn't agree with May's handling of Brexit). I wouldn't be surprised to see them leapfrogging into second place, which is where they were in 2010, albeit very narrowly. They dropped 12% in 2015 and should make some kind of recovery.

Labour's vote will probably collapse...

In the end a safe Tory win, though with some realignment of the parties at the bottom.

My bet is third place at best for the Corbybite candidate. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if they were shunted into fourth place (although I doubt that Corbyn would take the unsubtle hint from the voters).

The interesting thing s who comes first? I suspect the Tories will still retain the seat but with a significantly reduced majority.

I wouldn't worry, even if UKIP don't win, Paul Nuttall will lie about it and say he won it with a huge majority anyhow.