Nuttall was there all day yesterday drumming up support.

I'd agree but the particular UKIP candidate on offer to the voters might prevent a UKIP victory in this instance. They could have done better on that score.

Given the abysmal condition of kipper finances, did he have to take the bus to get there?

How do we know for certain that they are short of money?

Do buses run at the weekend? Could have got the Skeggy train!

Banks has thrown teddy out of the pram and just 5000 voted in the leadership election. Corbyn is at 500,000.

Not while Lincoln Christmas market is on. All the trains are packed to the rafters.

Trust me, I was there on Friday!

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&so...s705W-KaHE_5Sg

This. Ayling is an appalling opportunist who keeps popping up all over Lincolnshire in increasingly desperate attempts to get elected somewhere. Comfortable Tory victory with UKIP's vote share down on 2015.

She's off her trolley and deeply unpleasant... she lied about her son dying in Afghanistan, had the Daily Mail (of all papers) lambast her for making racist comments, used a tragic shooting in a nearby town to lie about armed immigrant gangs (implying that said gangs, which don't exist, might have been responsible, pissing off locals badly).

She's not popular, so I'd be dismayed if she has the support of anyone other than out and proud racists.

And she was absolutely never a member of the National Front.

And I'll wager Victoria Ayling was with him.

FPTP will deny UKIP a win and I wouldn't be surprised if they flat-lined in third place.

Oh yeah, and there's that. Probably more too.

The Tories will win, as it is a rock solid seat and - unlike RIchmond - there are no obvious distorting factors.

The Lib Dems will not pick up much of a vote as it is a Leave constituency.

Unless the Tory candidate is loudly indicating she is pro-EU, UKIP will make little headway.

Labour will do better than some here are predicting, and likely finish second.

So pretty much no change from the election result.

Given the COnservative candidate won wel over 50% of the vote in 2015, it is hard to see how you can argue that. Under AV, a candidate winning 50% of the vote in any round would win; so if the 2015 election have been held under AV, the Conservative would still have won, in the first round, without breaking sweat.

Under STV, by-elections are usually decided by FPTP contests anyway.

If anything, FPTP favours UKIP in by-elections, as they only need to scrape together a miserable plurality of votes, not a majority, and as their supporters are a bit more 'passionate' (and, according to stereotype, have 'more time on their hands') they are more likely to turn up.

It is only on a nationwide scale that the unfairness of FPTP comes into effect.

Victoria Ayling stood as a candidate near me in the GE - she really is an incredibly horrible individual - I'll be interested to see what share of the votes she'll get, Obnoxious doesn't even come close.

Odd that because she also stood as a candidate near me in the 2010 GE, a Grimsby constituency. She also stood as a candidate for Police Commissioner and, as I recall, did quite well. I don't think, from what I've seen, that she's either a horrible person or obnoxious.

What's odd about that? I live near Grimsby.


Each to their own but if you didn't find her a nasty and obnoxious individual I don't really think much of your 'taste' in people.

Melanie Onn on the other hand is lovely, very knowledgeable about her constituency and charm personified - a very worthy successor to Austin Mitchell.

Well of course, she's Labour and it doesn't take much to succeed Austin Mitchell. As to Ayling, I got the impression from what you said that you actually knew her.

What on earth gave you that impression?

Why would you find it funny that I said she stood as a candidate close to where I live? - it was almost as if you were insinuating that I was being untruthful or something. I saw and read enough of Ms Ayling to come to the conclusion that she really isn't very nice at all.

Can I ask something of you, please don't feel under pressure to reply but I take it you are a Labour supporter so likely best person to ask. You can PM if you don't want to answer me here.

Do you believe Labour are going to be punished come next election heavily in the North where their strongholds are? I'm asking because I was in conversation with Scotlands only Westminster MP Ian Murray who told the gathered group that he feared that a similar near wipeout was coming for Labour in England even if the referendum had not happened because the core vote is angry that Labour appears to care more for everyone else than them.

Labour losing their deposit in this by election is likely to confirm for me where the party could find itself in four years.

Doesn't sound too out of the ordinary to me.

Very likely, however, interesting to see if there is any drift away from the Conservative majority and where it goes.

8
The party that's so keen on grammar schools might want to get someone who can spell the name of the constituency properly.
Usual sloppy UKIP.