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Sleaford and North Hykeman Parliamentary by-election


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Old 09-12-2016, 07:08
Radlestort
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Yep, the only way that Corbyn's "movement" is going is down the pan.
There have been eight by-elections since the 2015 General Election.

Labour have won 5, the Conservatives 2 and the Lib Dems 1.

Labour have enjoyed a 100% success rate in by-elections. That's hardly the record of a party 'going down the pan.'

The results in Richmond and S & NE don't tell us anything about Labour, other than they are not competitive in seats in which they have never been competitive.
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Old 09-12-2016, 07:14
Dotheboyshall
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So a clear mandate for a Hard Brexit then.
The new MP campaigned to stay in the Single Market, so a clear mandate for a soft Brexit
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Old 09-12-2016, 07:50
NilSatisOptimum
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The results in Richmond and S & NE don't tell us anything about Labour, other than they are not competitive in seats in which they have never been competitive.
Good analysis, first post I read, wont read any other this morning, I can imagine there is a fair bit of sport troll drivel being written. I would add there was huge drop in turn out considering the politics at the moment, 70% at the election and 37% last night.


The new MP campaigned to stay in the Single Market, so a clear mandate for a soft Brexit
Now that's a knock out reply, I'm sure their parents tell them they are special..

edit, I lied, two then.
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Old 09-12-2016, 08:07
trunkster
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Pro brexit stronghold returns pro-brexit majority! Will the media be as amazed as Richmond? I guess no, this will be largely ignored.
Correct, it won't be poured over by the EU loving BBC, especially when UKIP beat the official EU party into 3rd place
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Old 09-12-2016, 08:32
blueisthecolour
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One thing that everyone needs to bear in mind is just how low the Lib Dems sank in 2015. It's inevitable that in almost any by-election now that you're going to see an increase in vote for them (at Labour's expense in many areas). I mean, if you look at the 2010 result they finished second in the Sleaford and North Hykeman seat with Labour on third, so this is really just a reversion to that position (with the added increase for UKIP which has happened since).

I'm not saying for a moment that Labour shouldn't be worried about this - they should. Between a Lib Dem recovery and UKIP holding on to their vote share in the north Labour could find themselves in trouble in marginal seats. The issue is though that there's no obvious way to deal with the situation - if they re-embrace New Labour it will just mean more votes lost to UKIP and lower turnout among their base, if they adopt any of UKIP's rhetoric they will lose votes to the Lib Dems.
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Old 09-12-2016, 08:46
trevgo
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So a clear mandate for a Hard Brexit then.
Utter bull. What goes on in these peoples' minds?

Given the Tory is in favour of single market, as are Labour and of course, the LibDems, it means 13.5% want a hard Brexit. Which probably represents most of the country. Given the area, it's probably overstated if anything.

THAT is the message here, along with the fact that Corbyn is toxic. A fact his band of fools will only realise after they've been wasted at the next election.
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Old 09-12-2016, 09:13
jmclaugh
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So this isn't being hailed as a Brexit victory that shows there is nationwide support for Brexit unlike the Richmond result was for remaining then.
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Old 09-12-2016, 09:34
Mariesam
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I keep flicking between stations and am ending up getting BBC World News and CBS on Sky.

I think I'll stick with LBC until the declaration takes place, then switch to TV. Surely that would be live?

It's very strange that there is so little coverage of this anywhere.
well the last by-election was covered by the BBC live on BBC1 til it declared....this one wasn't covered at all on BBC1, the BBC don't even seem to want to hide their pro EU bias anymore....well they do get some monies from the EU so make your own mind up.
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Old 09-12-2016, 09:36
SnowStorm86
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Another shit night for Corbyn's labour. Not that he cares.
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Old 09-12-2016, 10:06
onecitizen
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Another shit night for Corbyn's labour. Not that he cares.
Yep, Labour are in deep trouble if they go from 2nd to 4th behind UKIP and the Libdems.
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Old 09-12-2016, 10:13
Kiteview
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well the last by-election was covered by the BBC live on BBC1 til it declared....this one wasn't covered at all on BBC1, the BBC don't even seem to want to hide their pro EU bias anymore....well they do get some monies from the EU so make your own mind up.
It was fairly obvious that the result wasn't going to be close, so it is hard to see why the result would deserve live coverage. No doubt had it turned out to be a cliff-hanger they could have altered their schedule to reflect this fairly easily.
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Old 09-12-2016, 10:25
heiker
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Another shit night for Corbyn's labour. Not that he cares.
Labour would have won if Corbyn was more left wing
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Old 09-12-2016, 10:31
BanglaRoad
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well the last by-election was covered by the BBC live on BBC1 til it declared....this one wasn't covered at all on BBC1, the BBC don't even seem to want to hide their pro EU bias anymore....well they do get some monies from the EU so make your own mind up.
Richmond was a "big story"
God knows when the party of government didn't have a candidate.
Goldsmith was high profile after his disgraceful mayoral campaign.
Understand that some by elections are more interesting on a national scale than others instead of seeing non existent bias.
Not everything has to be turned into a CT
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Old 09-12-2016, 10:44
RecordPlayer
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I can see the LibDems overtaking UKIP eventually.

A lot of people have had enough of the other parties and want a change.
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Old 09-12-2016, 11:09
Liete
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Despite only getting 10% in Sleaford, Labour have actually soared to 25% nationally in the latest YouGov poll, just 17 points behind the Tories. I don't think we can draw any conclusions from Sleaford.
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Old 09-12-2016, 11:14
Mariesam
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Richmond was a "big story"
God knows when the party of government didn't have a candidate.
Goldsmith was high profile after his disgraceful mayoral campaign.
Understand that some by elections are more interesting on a national scale than others instead of seeing non existent bias.
Not everything has to be turned into a CT
I understand your points, but is it the business of a public funded broadcaster to pick and choose political coverage based on if it will get headlines? Surely with how unreliable polls have been, they wouldn't have really known if there was a story til after the result.....It gives the impression one area is more relevant than another based on how it votes and that shouldn't be in the BBCs remit. Reporting facts, not trying to make up stories should be the majority of what the BBC produces....you can leave bias opinions that to the tabloids....of which the BBC and others become worringly addictive to covering.
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Old 09-12-2016, 11:34
WellHiddenMark
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UKIP is ailing?
UKIP that "enormous threat" to the Conservatives, the establishment and the country is failing. With their one MP.
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Old 09-12-2016, 11:35
kidspud
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I understand your points, but is it the business of a public funded broadcaster to pick and choose political coverage based on if it will get headlines? Surely with how unreliable polls have been, they wouldn't have really known if there was a story til after the result.....It gives the impression one area is more relevant than another based on how it votes and that shouldn't be in the BBCs remit. Reporting facts, not trying to make up stories should be the majority of what the BBC produces....you can leave bias opinions that to the tabloids....of which the BBC and others become worringly addictive to covering.
unless they have made a commitment to cover every by-election live, then yes, it is the business of the BBC to pick and choose based on actual public interest.
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Old 09-12-2016, 11:35
WellHiddenMark
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I can see the LibDems overtaking UKIP eventually.

A lot of people have had enough of the other parties and want a change.
LOL

9 > 1 already
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Old 09-12-2016, 11:51
Mariesam
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unless they have made a commitment to cover every by-election live, then yes, it is the business of the BBC to pick and choose based on actual public interest.
but the public interest as they see it, those in the some areas might rate it quite highly, and those that live in the area around Lincs too......it seems things are in the public interest only when it suits a certain political agenda.....or to make a story, something which should be left to the tabloids.
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Old 09-12-2016, 11:53
Kiteview
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Despite only getting 10% in Sleaford, Labour have actually soared to 25% nationally in the latest YouGov poll, just 17 points behind the Tories. I don't think we can draw any conclusions from Sleaford.
In a FPTP system being 17 points behind is enormous. That's the sort of margin that, in Scotland, saw the SNP basically wipe out every non-SNP MP.
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Old 09-12-2016, 11:54
kidspud
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but the public interest as they see it, those in the some areas might rate it quite highly, and those that live in the area around Lincs too......it seems things are in the public interest only when it suits a certain political agenda.....or to make a story, something which should be left to the tabloids.
But if you are comparing the 2 recent by-elections, I can see why one was of public interest (linked to Heathrow, Brexit & was predicted to be close) and one was of very little interest (hardly anyone knew it was happening and wouldn't be able to tell you anything about it).
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Old 09-12-2016, 12:25
Caxton
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A great night for Labour, they beat all the candidates in bold, they got nearly 17 times more votes than the Monster Raving Loony Party, now that is an achievement

The result in full:
Caroline Johnson: (Conservatives) - 17,570
Victoria Ayling: (UKIP) - 4,426
Ross Pepper: (Liberal Democrats) - 3,606
Jim Clarke: (Labour) - 3,363
Marianne Overton: (Lincolnshire Independent) - 2,892
Sarah Stock: (Independent) - 462
The Iconic Arty-Pole: (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 200
Paul Coyne: (Independent) - 186
Mark Suffield: (Independent) - 74
David Bishop: (Bus Pass Elvis Party) - 55
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Old 09-12-2016, 12:26
allaorta
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Despite only getting 10% in Sleaford, Labour have actually soared to 25% nationally in the latest YouGov poll, just 17 points behind the Tories. I don't think we can draw any conclusions from Sleaford.
We can however, draw conclusions from the YouGov poll....Labour are still crap.
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Old 09-12-2016, 12:28
allaorta
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UKIP that "enormous threat" to the Conservatives, the establishment and the country is failing. With their one MP.
Despite a drop in this particular constituency, UKIP polled at the same sort of level as in the 2015 general election.
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