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How will the Italian crisis affect the EU. |
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#1 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,342
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How will the Italian crisis affect the EU.
Is this the beginning of the end ? http://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin.../#3bf101809945
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#2 |
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 69,132
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Hopefully it is.
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#3 |
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 385
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Great news another nail in the EU coffin.
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#4 |
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 69,132
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Can we nitjust go back to each country having their own currency?
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#5 |
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Devon
Posts: 47,965
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It is hardly a crisis as things are exactly as they were before the referendum on the constitution and all it really means is things will stagger on as before.
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#6 |
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 7,550
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Quote:
Can we nitjust go back to each country having their own currency?
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#7 |
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Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Lancashire, N. England
Posts: 4,706
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The E.U. will ingnore it .
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#8 |
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Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 239
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The finance minister who is favourite to take over wants the Eurozone to have its own central government and cabinet - probably to get Germany to underwrite the Italian economy. He's very much an integrationist and federalist. So the Italian government will be pushing for more Europe. So in the short term it could help the Eu establishment.
In the longer term it probably depends on how successful the new guy is with their economic problems. |
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#9 |
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Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 4,894
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The Italian political turmoil is nothing compared to the massive crisis withat Italian banks that could collapse the eurozone. The Italian banks made hundreds of billions of euros in bad loans which they will never get back and creating a "bad bank" to off load them is no longer a option.
The banks are too large to save when not if they collapse and when they do they will trigger a Greece style crisis in the 3rd largest economy in the euro zone. It really is brown trousers time for the Italians if their banks collapse |
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#10 |
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Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 2,289
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Quote:
Is this the beginning of the end ? http://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin.../#3bf101809945
If you think Italy has problems now they are going to get a damn sight worst if they have to go back to their own currency and borrow money on the open market. The problem is Italy has a horrible banking system, massive problems of corruption and a public sector which is far to large and expensive to run. The vote to try and tackle these issues has been rejected in some protest vote against the EU. Leaving the EU is not going to fix any of these issues. They existed in Italy way before they joined the EU and so far they have done nothing to fix them while being in the EU. The problem is that while people dont like the EU or the Euro what other options do you have at the end of the day ? Going back to the Lira does not fix any of these issues. |
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#11 |
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Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 1,457
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Quote:
The Lira was worth 2,000 to the euro when they exchanged it.
At least with the Lira they had fiscal control and could lower its value to create value in the country for foreign investment and job creation. Italy and Spain desperately needed fiscal control during the financial crisis. |
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#12 |
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,589
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Quote:
Why is the value of Lira an issue? It historically been between 1500 and 3500 against the pound since world war 2 following a couple of post war devaluations. You make it sound like a negative when IMHO it is a positive.
At least with the Lira they had fiscal control and could lower its value to create value in the country for foreign investment and job creation. Italy and Spain desperately needed fiscal control during the financial crisis. |
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#13 |
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Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,000
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Quote:
It really is brown trousers time for the whole of Europe -- the UK included -- if their banks collapse
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#14 |
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Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 1,457
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The place was hugely unstable politically long before they joined the Eurozone and has had over 60 governments since WW2. Perhaps they may well have benefitted from being outside the Euro during the financial crash but this fact can't just be taken in isolation from everything else.
The italian government hasnt exactly become any more stable post eu. Yesterday Renzi was trying to change it to provide more stability. |
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#15 |
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Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,000
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Quote:
Yesterday Renzi was trying to change it to provide more stability.
The country encapsulates perfectly what happens when you allow populists to rule a state for generations. Trump's USA will be in much the same state in 2024 if he's re-elected. |
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#16 |
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,589
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Quote:
I was only pointing out that somone doesnt understand finance when negatively talking about a 2000:1 exchange rate suggesting it was a bad thing - when in reality it wouldnt matter if the lira was 1:1 or 2000:1 before joining the euro.
The italian government hasnt exactly become any more stable post eu. Yesterday Renzi was trying to change it to provide more stability. |
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#17 |
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 7,550
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Indeed, it seems Italians love saying 'no' to everything. Renzi was at least trying to introuduce some radical reforms to society but they've voted those down as well. Perhaps the No side might come up with some constructive proposals but I wouldn't be holding my breath.
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#18 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Hell.
Posts: 9,696
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I don't know a great deal about Italian politics (although I always had a sense that the whole lot of them were corrupt to some degree). This Five Star lot seem a bit of a strange conglomeration of ideas. Mind you, has Italy ever been governed well?
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#19 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 12,479
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Indeed, it seems Italians love saying 'no' to everything. Renzi was at least trying to introuduce some radical reforms to society but they've voted those down as well. Perhaps the No side might come up with some constructive proposals but I wouldn't be holding my breath.
Business as usual for this year! |
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#20 |
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Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,710
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The Italian bank Monte dei Paschi, is going to fall first. The bank is waiting on a large investment from a consortium of investors, they were already in the process of being rescued. However, with the events that's unfolded, no one in their right mind, would invest in the failing bank, why risk it?
With the bank being so integral to Italy, the government is going have to nationalise. This will greatly affect the other Italian banks, as confidence will be lost. The shares on Italian banks have plummeted, and they can only go further down, after investors will likely pull out of a rescue plan for Monte dei Paschi. |
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#21 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,589
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Quote:
I don't know a great deal about Italian politics (although I always had a sense that the whole lot of them were corrupt to some degree). This Five Star lot seem a bit of a strange conglomeration of ideas. Mind you, has Italy ever been governed well?
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#22 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 1,000
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Quote:
Some Brexit supporters have been holding up the Five Star Movement as an Italian version of UKIP but they are nothing of the sort : they are a bizarre mish mash of ideas including being strongly pro-environment and wanting to abolish party politics completely.
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#23 |
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Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 12,479
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'A bizarre mish mash of ideas'... seems to sum up UKIP rather well actually.
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#24 |
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 7,550
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Quote:
and until recently "led by a clown" would have fitted too!
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#25 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 4,894
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Quote:
The Italian bank Monte dei Paschi, is going to fall first. The bank is waiting on a large investment from a consortium of investors, they were already in the process of being rescued. However, with the events that's unfolded, no one in their right mind, would invest in the failing bank, why risk it?
With the bank being so integral to Italy, the government is going have to nationalise. This will greatly affect the other Italian banks, as confidence will be lost. The shares on Italian banks have plummeted, and they can only go further down, after investors will likely pull out of a rescue plan for Monte dei Paschi. The collapse will happen only question is when |
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