DS Forums

 
 

How will the Italian crisis affect the EU.


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 05-12-2016, 16:57
johnny_boi_UK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 3,038
It is hardly a crisis as things are exactly as they were before the referendum on the constitution and all it really means is things will stagger on as before.
It depends on who wins the following election
johnny_boi_UK is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old 05-12-2016, 17:21
Eurostar
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,589
It depends on who wins the following election
It could be yet another coalition, meaning the parties would be divided on their approach to the Euro and the EU.
Eurostar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 19:59
EffeG
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 12
Great news another nail in the EU coffin.
This coffin must be looking like a fakir bed by now.
Yet the EU is still up and running.
EffeG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 20:09
alan29
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 20,480
They have had more than one government per year since the end of WW2.
Its their normal situation.
The EU will cope because like most countries, Italy has better civil servants than politicians.
alan29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 20:26
Tanky
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,710
They have had more than one government per year since the end of WW2.
Its their normal situation.
The EU will cope because like most countries, Italy has better civil servants than politicians.
When the Italian banking system collapses, what will coping involve? The EU bailing Italian banks out?

People have already mentioned that their level of debt and size of their banks far exceeds that of Greece, and the EU are already finding it hard to maintain Greece in the EU. I can only imagine, that the Italians are going to revolt, when they themselves are faced with worst than Greek style austerity measures.
Tanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 20:31
MC_Satan
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Hell.
Posts: 9,696
When the Italian banking system collapses, what will coping involve? The EU bailing Italian banks out?

People have already mentioned that their level of debt and size of their banks far exceeds that of Greece, and the EU are already finding it hard to maintain Greece in the EU. I can only imagine, that the Italians are going to revolt, when they themselves are faced with worst than Greek style austerity measures.
Let them sink. They are evidently incapable of running a country. No bail outs. Nothing.
MC_Satan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 20:34
johnny_boi_UK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 3,038
Let them sink. They are evidently incapable of running a country. No bail outs. Nothing.
The Italian ecomny was in a far better situation than ours prior to them bailing out the pigs nations.
johnny_boi_UK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 20:37
BrokenArrow
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Hampshire
Posts: 20,806
and until recently "led by a clown" would have fitted too!
The biggest Clown is Junker.

None of this will get fixed until Brussels take their heads out of the sand and start coming up with proposals to address the problems they have helped to create.
BrokenArrow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 20:40
alan29
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 20,480
When the Italian banking system collapses, what will coping involve? The EU bailing Italian banks out?

People have already mentioned that their level of debt and size of their banks far exceeds that of Greece, and the EU are already finding it hard to maintain Greece in the EU. I can only imagine, that the Italians are going to revolt, when they themselves are faced with worst than Greek style austerity measures.
Bankers will talk to bankers and sort it out.
Its what they always do to save the "system."
Politicians are just window dressing. That referendum is just a side show.
alan29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 21:12
Tanky
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,710
Bankers will talk to bankers and sort it out.
Its what they always do to save the "system."
Politicians are just window dressing. That referendum is just a side show.
If that was the case, they wouldn't be seeking outside investment. They clearly can't raise the kind of money need to keep the banks from going under. Investors are pulling out of any rescue plan, as they feel it's too risky, and it's a political nightmare, once the EU and ECB gets involved. Weak banks in Italy are already being bailed out.

Not to forget, once the ECB gets involved, the shareholders and bondholders, all have to take the losses apparently, with accordance to EU guidelines. These shareholders and bondholders, are all normal Italian citizens, meaning many will face possible financial trouble. A big reason why investors aren't touching the Italian banks, as they would lose all their money put into shares and bonds.

There's no money within the Italian banking system, so they can only rely on outside money. The investors are pulling out, leaving only the EU and ECB bailout.
Tanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 21:19
MC_Satan
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Hell.
Posts: 9,696
The Italian ecomny was in a far better situation than ours prior to them bailing out the pigs nations.
What is 'the pigs nation'?
MC_Satan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 21:26
Tanky
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,710
What is 'the pigs nation'?
Portugal
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Spain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PIGS_(economics)
Tanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 22:17
mRebel
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 19,171
and until recently "led by a clown" would have fitted too!
Better than being led by crooks, as most political parties are, in Italy, UK and probably all European countries. It says something about the state of politics when so many turn to a comedian!
mRebel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 22:47
johnny_boi_UK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 3,038
Better than being led by crooks, as most political parties are, in Italy, UK and probably all European countries. It says something about the state of politics when so many turn to a comedian!
oh come on, our level of corruption here in the uk pales in comparison to that in Italy.

the last truely corrupt politician that i can think off is geoff hoon
johnny_boi_UK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 22:49
MC_Satan
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Hell.
Posts: 9,696
Thanks, never heard that before. Alhough I don't quite understand how Italy's finances were better than ours until they had to bail out failing economies that includes their own failing economy.
MC_Satan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 22:59
johnny_boi_UK
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 3,038
Thanks, never heard that before. Alhough I don't quite understand how Italy's finances were better than ours until they had to bail out failing economies that includes their own failing economy.
They had less corporate debt and more importantly far less consumer debt than us. Italians contrary to popular believe are not lazy but hard working frugal people.

Italy similarly to the uk is divided one half is poor the other very wealthy. However unlike southern england northern italy is a manufacturing powerhouse similar to the german regions.

the eu forced them to bail out spain ect to make the italian banks more reliant on the ecb rather than the ecb bailing out those countries directly.
johnny_boi_UK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 23:25
skp20040
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Central London
Posts: 43,666
What's it got to do with you if other countries want to be in a currency union?
It isn't so much about what they want to do it is being allowed to do what they need to do, one of the founding fathers of the Euro Otmar Issing recently said the Eurozone has a big problem and that is that once in they do not let you leave and that not allowing an exit strategy was a mistake. He said they needed to allow countries to be able to take a break or leave the Euro entirely and unless there are reforms it would eventually lead to its collapse.
skp20040 is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2016, 23:44
Eurostar
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,589
It isn't so much about what they want to do it is being allowed to do what they need to do, one of the founding fathers of the Euro Otmar Issing recently said the Eurozone has a big problem and that is that once in they do not let you leave and that not allowing an exit strategy was a mistake. He said they needed to allow countries to be able to take a break or leave the Euro entirely and unless there are reforms it would eventually lead to its collapse.
That could happen at some point, I wouldn't rule it out. The Euro is a very recent currency and nothing is set in stone.
Eurostar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2016, 08:58
AnotherPOV
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 696
Hopefully it's the first domino.
AnotherPOV is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2016, 12:23
AJ1000
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 146
Do you mean it is like the song 'Hotel California' ?

'You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave!'
AJ1000 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2016, 19:25
TelevisionUser
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,916
How will the Italian crisis affect the EU.

Is this the beginning of the end ? http://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin.../#3bf101809945
While there is regrettably much spiteful and nasty delight about Italy's situation, Renzi will be acting as a caretaker prime minister for at least another week and then President Sergio Mattarella will decide what to do - call an early election or, perhaps more likely, appoint another caretaker prime minister until the scheduled date for the general election which would provide for a more stable situation.

Just like RBS and Lloyds in the UK, the issues that face the Italian banking sector are solvable but they will require state intervention and a year or so to stabilise and sort out.

Therefore, and despite the vile and bitchy wishes displayed in this forum:

1. Italy will not go under;

2. The European Union will not implode;

3. The euro currency will not collapse.
TelevisionUser is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2016, 19:54
alan29
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 20,480
While there is regrettably much spiteful and nasty delight about Italy's situation, Renzi will be acting as a caretaker prime minister for at least another week and then President Sergio Mattarella will decide what to do - call an early election or, perhaps more likely, appoint another caretaker prime minister until the scheduled date for the general election which would provide for a more stable situation.

Just like RBS and Lloyds in the UK, the issues that face the Italian banking sector are solvable but they will require state intervention and a year or so to stabilise and sort out.

Therefore, and despite the vile and bitchy wishes displayed in this forum:

1. Italy will not go under;

2. The European Union will not implode;

3. The euro currency will not collapse.
If they did, the shock waves here would be massive.
And no amount of flag waving or singing "Rule Britannia" would save us, because like it or not, our economies are intimately linked. And financially and commercially there is no such thing as independence.
alan29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2016, 19:56
Eurostar
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,589
While there is regrettably much spiteful and nasty delight about Italy's situation, Renzi will be acting as a caretaker prime minister for at least another week and then President Sergio Mattarella will decide what to do - call an early election or, perhaps more likely, appoint another caretaker prime minister until the scheduled date for the general election which would provide for a more stable situation.

Just like RBS and Lloyds in the UK, the issues that face the Italian banking sector are solvable but they will require state intervention and a year or so to stabilise and sort out.

Therefore, and despite the vile and bitchy wishes displayed in this forum:

1. Italy will not go under;

2. The European Union will not implode;

3. The euro currency will not collapse.
Trying to compare Italy to the Brexit situation would be very misleading. There were a lot of pro-EU people among the No voters and indeed Italy is a pro-EU country in general. Anyone reading the British press would nearly be under the impression that the Five Star Movement are a far right populist party along the lines of UKIP and the Front Nationale, when their agenda is radically different.
Eurostar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2016, 20:15
Tanky
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 1,710
Looks like Government bailout and nationalising, it is then. As every investor ran away as fast as they could.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38235013

It's suggested, that the most troubled bank, Monte dei Paschi, is going to need €2bn to prop it up apparently. The Italian government are looking to borrow €15bn too.

La Stampa newspaper had reported that Rome would be asking for €15bn (£12.7bn; $16.1bn) from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to help the Italian banking system.
At the same time, Reuters quoted unnamed sources as saying that the government would take a €2bn controlling stake in Monte dei Paschi after the prospect of a private recapitalisation receded.
Tanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2016, 20:24
TelevisionUser
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,916
Looks like Government bailout and nationalising, it is then. As every investor ran away as fast as they could.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38235013

It's suggested, that the most troubled bank, Monte dei Paschi, is going to need €2bn to prop it up apparently. The Italian government are looking to borrow €15bn too.
...in other words, it's not that different from RBS and Lloyds over here thus the Italian calamity some were actively wishing for will not happen.
TelevisionUser is offline   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 09:33.