Some of you may not agree with this result but I always believe that the Social Media reaction is a good indication of how the public voted. I only recorded the 'unique' reactions on Strictly Facebook videos because per account can only react once. Facebook users usually give 'Like' and 'Love' to the couples who they actually voted and they very rarely hitting the 'Angry' button if they hated the dance.
I believe people reaction on Facebook is true reflection of what the GBP's actual reaction.

So this is what I found and calculated to get the bottom 2.

Week 8
Danny 38 (8) + 20.7k (7) = 15
Louise 37 (7) + 20k (6) = 13
Claudia 36 (6) + 7.6k (4) = 10
Ed 25(2) + 31k(8) = 10
Rinder 33 (4) + 14k (5) = 9
Ore 35 (5) + 7.1k (3) = 8
Greg 31 (3) + 6.9k (2) = 5
Daisy 31 (3) + 5.7k (1) = 4

Week 9
Danny 40 (7) + 31k (7) = 14
Louise 38 (6) + 15k (6) = 12
Ore 38 (6) + 7.1k (4) = 10
Ed 23 (2) + 7.2k (5) = 7
Rinder 33 (4) + 7k (3) = 7
Claudia 36 (5) + 6.1k (2) = 7
Greg 32 (3) + 5.7k (1) = 4

Week 10
Danny 45 (6) + 38k (6) = 12
Louise 45 (6) + 14k (4) = 10
Claudia 39 (4) + 17k (5) = 9
Ore 40 (5) + 6.4k (3) = 8
Rinder 31 (3) + 3.8k (2) = 5
Ed 24 (2) + 3.4k (1) = 3

Week 11
Claudia 37 (4) + 14k (5) = 9
Danny 38 (5) + 10k (4) = 9
Louise 37 (4) + 11k (3) = 7
Ore 36 (3) + 4.9k (1) = 4
Rinder 31 (2) + 6.3k (2) = 4


I don't know what you think of this... but it is pretty accurate to me.

So going by social media Danny would win, Louise 2nd and Claudia 3rd.

Danny always on the top... but last week it was Claudia.

Because Claudia had the best dance last week.

While Danny danced a barely recognizable Tango to a disco song.

ETA. I think it will come down to how their choreography/music/technique all fit together to decide who gets through to the final.

if you check Ed's gangnam style and Danny's 'open shirt' samba... both attracted high figures.

I would be very surprised if the two in the dance off were the actual bottom two in the public vote every week.

I don't think you can judge how people are voting just by facebook. I know plenty of people who don't have it but still watch and vote.

they are just representation of what the public reaction towards the dance... well Rinder attracted more 'Likes' than Ore tho.

How interesting, I could easily see it being like that.

Could be something in this.
Then again,in my family of aunts, cousins and their children, (and we are probably not typical)
the regular watchers are either light or non-users of social media,the younger more Facebook-savvy ones having little or no interest in the show.

Danny and Louise should both be on 8 for Week 11.

sorry?

According to your figures, Louise got more Tweets so should've scored 4 and Danny 3.

James,

I found your analysis interesting, thanks. Just one suggestion:

Focus your attention on the Week 7 leaderboard, and subsequent Bottom Two...

Study it. Carefully. Very, very carefully.

Then look again at your assumed public voting orders for Weeks 8, 9 & 10...

BOOM!

Suddenly, as if by magic... the shopkeeper appears!
The sacred curtain is briefly pulled back, and what do we glimpse? The Emporer - stark naked (his new clothes are busy being double-stitched twice...)
Blimey. The holy grail, the golden ticket & the keys to the magic kingdom... hiding in plain sight all along! Well, who'da thunk it!? Glory be. Move along, nothing to see. The veil is quickly replaced, the shopkeeper fades, and nobody saw a thing, right? It was all a dream. Normal service is resumed (and assumed).

Don't worry If you still can't grasp anything wildly amiss - forget about it. It doesn't matter. Nothing matters. Everything matters. Matters matter.

However, If you DO happen to decipher something vital, mysterious & downright funky... then PLEASE keep it to yourself. Some of us have to make a living out of all of this nonsense!



Amen, brothers & sisters. See you all in the promised land. Not long now. Almost there...

Always Already.

Well then.

So in a Venn diagram with a set of Strictly viewers, and a set of social media users, the stats collected by the OP come from the intersection of those two sets. But of course the judges' scores can protect the least popular of the final 4, so they will only really help predict the winner once we see who's in the final and the scores don't matter.

What I took from this is that Claudia can win. Danny might be the better dancer, but so was Ricky Whittle in 2009. And he was from Hollyoaks too

There are certain similarities between Danny and Ricky. However while Ricky was the better dancer, there was all that mess between him, Carley and Natalie, which didn't go over well, and he was arrested for assault during the series. Also him and Natalie seemed uber-competitive compared to Chris and Ola who were just having fun and building a great partnership. Danny doesn't have any similar things hampering him as far as I'm aware. There's his much debated ringer status but Claudia is hardly comparable to Chris Hollins.

The stats suggest to me that a lot depends on the dances they draw and the performances on the night, which I'd much rather have than an obvious runaway winner. Also, Latin tends to be a lot more popular with viewers than ballroom so this week's social media should be telling as they've all got both.

. I can't work out from your posting style whether you are being serious or not, but looking at your posting history I can see that you at least have a genuine interest in the subject.

There is an anomaly in week 7 in that one of the bottom 2 doesn't fit in with the facebook views but that could be explained by whether fans of the two celebs unexpectedly escaping the dance off are also likely to be following Strictly on facebook. They may be watching because of the celeb rather than Strictly and therefore would not have gone to the Facebook page to like the video. Basically the proposition holds up for celebs who are not widely known and who get their following via Strictly, but maybe less so for others.

Week 7 and earlier episodes has already been tampered by new 'fans' rewatching the old videos... I could not find the actual tally of the reaction given just after the performance... but the number of shares is correct with this theory tho.

I think they also have to be keen enough Strictly viewers to be following the show on facebook. I know people who use social media, like the show but do not follow the BBC page. But even so, the stats are probably fairly indicative since those people who follow the page are more likely to vote, sometimes multiple times.

Ah ok. I'm surprised how accurate a picture you get. Interesting to look at trends too.

Week 7 Ore got 100 more likes than Ed... but Ed got more 'loves' than Ore and shares.... very small margin... that is why I am looking for the earlier recorded tally that week but couldnt find the thread.

This kind of analysis is pretty good at indicating the trends. If you can start this from week 1 next year James, we could clean up at the bookies!

James, well done for creating a thread that is actually interesting - makes a refreshing change from all the Undermarked!/Overmarked!/Fix! nonsense.

I don't use social media so I only have a hazy idea of what you are counting, but it does seem to correlate well with the actual bottom 2s. I imagine that a fair proportion of people who bother to vote also use FB etc.

Interesting that Danny's tally plummeted this week, when he did a bit of ropey dance, so maybe a lot of his votes come not from intrinsic popularity, but because of his undoubted ability. In which case, unlike last year where Jay scarcely needed to turn up for the final to win, he will need to maintain his high standard.

Pleased to see that Louise's tally is usually in second place - I've become a bit of a fan...

I don't know for sure, but I think that a lot of people vote in the final who don't bother in the earlier rounds, so it could still be quite open.

Bookies probably read this already... lol