Social Media 'Unique Reaction' good indication of Public Vote.

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james_von05

07-12-2016

Originally Posted by Mr Cellophane:
“James, well done for creating a thread that is actually interesting - makes a refreshing change from all the Undermarked!/Overmarked!/Fix! nonsense.

I don't use social media so I only have a hazy idea of what you are counting, but it does seem to correlate well with the actual bottom 2s. I imagine that a fair proportion of people who bother to vote also use FB etc.

Interesting that Danny's tally plummeted this week, when he did a bit of ropey dance, so maybe a lot of his votes come not from intrinsic popularity, but because of his undoubted ability. In which case, unlike last year where Jay scarcely needed to turn up for the final to win, he will need to maintain his high standard.

Pleased to see that Louise's tally is usually in second place - I've become a bit of a fan...

I don't know for sure, but I think that a lot of people vote in the final who don't bother in the earlier rounds, so it could still be quite open.”

Thanks... yeah it quite interesting to see Ed peaked on that gangnam style which I laugh very hard and aplaud too... and Danny"s Samba with open shirt was a hit too... and also Claudia's climbing back from nearly going out to the top last week.

vald

07-12-2016

Originally Posted by JamieHT:
“Danny and Louise should both be on 8 for Week 11.”

I noticed that too. Anyway it's nice to see Louise doing so well considering the flack she's been getting on here.

Ann_Dancer

07-12-2016

I noticed that too. It is rather reassuring. Maybe, in the main, the public are a bit more discriminating than we give them credit for.

The Swampster

07-12-2016

This is an interesting thread. I don't find it particularly surprising that Claudia and Louise have had more views than Danny this week - their choreography and songs were better even if their actual dancing wasn't.
I think the competition could still go one of three ways (I can't see Ore winning this), but based on what Oti has come up with for Danny in the past, I'd be surprised if one of the ladies beat him, especially if it was Claudia.

jtnorth

07-12-2016

It's interesting, thank you, and it has certainly seemed this year that BMSLisa's thread about social media stats is often a very good guide for who is going to be in the b2.

But I think it is harder to read on Danny and Louise. I don't really have a favourite out of who is left, but in previous years if someone is my solid favourite, by this stage I vote for them whatever. I vote for them more if they're in trouble. I won't repeatedly watch a dance I didn't love or where my favourite made a mistake, but I'd still vote for them. It is possible that social media reflects people in danger accurately but doesn't fully reflect solid support at the top. It is possible that it is a good guide for who is in trouble, but for two people with strong support it might not tell us whose support is strongest.

e.g. Last year for Jay, I'd have watched one of his dances on youtube much more often if I loved it than if he messed up, but I'd have voted just as often or more if he messed up. I know that's just me, proves nothing, and that a lot of people start voting around now who only watched before, but I think assuming that because views of Danny's tango dropped on Saturday means his vote dropped on Saturday is unproven as yet.

james_von05

08-12-2016

Originally Posted by jtnorth:
“It's interesting, thank you, and it has certainly seemed this year that BMSLisa's thread about social media stats is often a very good guide for who is going to be in the b2.

But I think it is harder to read on Danny and Louise. I don't really have a favourite out of who is left, but in previous years if someone is my solid favourite, by this stage I vote for them whatever. I vote for them more if they're in trouble. I won't repeatedly watch a dance I didn't love or where my favourite made a mistake, but I'd still vote for them. It is possible that social media reflects people in danger accurately but doesn't fully reflect solid support at the top. It is possible that it is a good guide for who is in trouble, but for two people with strong support it might not tell us whose support is strongest.

e.g. Last year for Jay, I'd have watched one of his dances on youtube much more often if I loved it than if he messed up, but I'd have voted just as often or more if he messed up. I know that's just me, proves nothing, and that a lot of people start voting around now who only watched before, but I think assuming that because views of Danny's tango dropped on Saturday means his vote dropped on Saturday is unproven as yet.”

I will check out BMSlisa's thread maybe I could extract some earlier information...

robbleona

08-12-2016

Originally Posted by The Swampster:
“This is an interesting thread. I don't find it particularly surprising that Claudia and Louise have had more views than Danny this week - their choreography and songs were better even if their actual dancing wasn't.
I think the competition could still go one of three ways (I can't see Ore winning this), but based on what Oti has come up with for Danny in the past, I'd be surprised if one of the ladies beat him, especially if it was Claudia.”

Looking purely at different 'who do you want to win/think will win' polls on the internet, I see louise is top of two I looked at by a long way. Danny is top of a third poll, which is quite close between the top 3 (tellymix), but smaller.
Do these polls have significance? If so, danny isn't the 'red hot' fave that the bookies think....

philltee

08-12-2016

Originally Posted by robbleona:
“Looking purely at different 'who do you want to win/think will win' polls on the internet, I see louise is top of two I looked at by a long way. Danny is top of a third poll, which is quite close between the top 3 (tellymix), but smaller.
Do these polls have significance? If so, danny isn't the 'red hot' fave that the bookies think....”

If Claudia has two great performances this weekend, I would consider her the favourite - she had timed her rise perfectly so far, and everyone will get behind the underdog in the final. Her dances have the wow factor that brings in the votes.

I think it will be Ore vs Louise in the DO this sat. Possibly with Louise going out.

robbleona

08-12-2016

Originally Posted by philltee:
“If Claudia has two great performances this weekend, I would consider her the favourite - she had timed her rise perfectly so far, and everyone will get behind the underdog in the final. Her dances have the wow factor that brings in the votes.

I think it will be Ore vs Louise in the DO this sat. Possibly with Louise going out.”

not a chance of louise going out, the judges would make sure of that!

vald

08-12-2016

Claudia is not an underdog, where on earth did that come from.

philltee

08-12-2016

Originally Posted by vald:
“Claudia is not an underdog, where on earth did that come from.”

Well considering Danny is now 1.67 to win, Louise is 3.5, Claudia is 12, wouldn't you consider that being an underdog??

Who would you consider the underdog then at this point vald?

vald

08-12-2016

Originally Posted by philltee:
“Well considering Danny is now 1.67 to win, Louise is 3.5, Claudia is 12, wouldn't you consider that being an underdog??

Who would you consider the underdog then at this point vald?”

Without knowing Ore's odds I couldn't say. Even so it's perfectly reasonable that the two better dancers would be given better odds.

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