Originally Posted by clinch:
“I keep hearing from the Remain camp that we must respect the wishes of the 48 per cent who wanted to remain in the EU.
I have still to find anyone who will tell me how that would have worked had the result of the referendum been reversed. How would the wishes of the 48 per cent who wanted to leave the EU have been respected in those circumstances?
Would it have meant withdrawing to the EEA, for example?”
Had we voted to stay in the EU by 52 to 48 we would have stayed in the EU.
The rest of the EU would have taken it as notification that the British Government no longer had a mandate to stall, negotiate opt-outs and generally be a pain as they had been for the last 40 years. They would have seen it as the end of British resistance to further integration and continued on their path with renewed vigour.
The British politicians would have realised that they had a problem. With 48% against the status quo they would realise that there was votes in change. But that change would have been limited to trying harder to mitigate the effects of Eastern European immigration – arguing for more money for schools, hospitals and other public services, but probably falling short of actually doing much about it. They may have been able to put a temporary brake on benefits to newcomers and may have even looked at restrictions on non EU immigration. But it all wouldn’t have amounted to much.
It wouldn’t have amounted to withdrawing to the EEA as there would have been a mandate to stay in the EU. There would only have been that one option.
But we are not in that position. We are in a position where we must withdraw from the EU. We must also find a new relationship with the EU. That’s because it is very big and very close and our biggest trading partner. It will also only enter into any trading relationship as a block, not as separate countries. It’s not something that it’s sensible not to make a decision about.
So the discussion now is about what that relationship should be. And unlike what the position would have been with a remain majority, with leave there is more than one option.
When it comes to trade are options ranging from no formal relationship at all (the WTO option currently only used by Madagascar, Djibouti and two other African countries) through partial arrangements such as a CETA type trade deal or staying in the Customs Union all the way through to an EFTA/EEA deal. Basically anything that can be negotiated in the time. (In practise, the time and the position taken by the EU may mean the actual options are very limited.)
What respecting the 48% means to me is acknowledging that nearly half want a very close relationship with the EU and that their opinion still counts in deciding the new UK/EU relationship. Its determining that relationship its not just about the 52% who voted leave but the opinions and interests of everyone, and so everyone has the right to campaign for their opinion.
So whereas if remain has won it would have been winner take all because there would have only been one option, with a leave victory the position is different.