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120,000 leave voters now dead |
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#276 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,288
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Quote:
There's about 750,000 new voters coming on the register every year. And about 500k people, mostly over 65, die. If 60% of young voters vote and 65-75% of that age group continue to vote remain, you have a net gain of at least 150k remain voters a year. Not allowing for the most infirm being most unable to vote, the oldest group of voters saw turn outs about 80% and two thirds voting for Leave Thats about a net loss of 130k Leave votes a year. Unless generational attitudes change, in 5 years , the Leave margin of about 1.27 million votes is gone - attacked by the comings and goings, at both age extremes of the electorate.
There's also the potential for a lot more EU nationals to take out citizenship before we leave. . There's 3 million plus of them...... Thats why leave is so afraid of a second referendum - if anyone could think of a viable , logical, question. If people voted the same at 60 as they do at 20 we wouldn't have had a Tory government for most of the last century. Indeed Most of those 60 year olds who backed leave this year almost certainly voted to stay in in 1975! So trends may not predict the future. |
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#277 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Novelty Island
Posts: 2,532
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Sorry if this has been discussed earlier, but how do know know this? It was a secret ballot, the only thing we knowkfor certain is the result. EVERYTHING else is supposition.
Of course we all know that, even the vast majority of 'Remainers'. Sadly, there are some folk out there who appear to have lost all grip of reality - at least on here anyway - and have resorted to getting their kicks from scraping barrels such as these. I have a friend who emigrated to New Zealand about 10 years ago who came back during the summer for a family visit. I met up with him after he'd been back a week or so and his first words to me were: 'This country's gone mad'. And it has. Threads like this prove it. People don't realise what what's happening to them because they're so caught up in it. I dare say even the OP of 10 years ago would balk at this thread. Well, hopefully. |
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#278 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 10,778
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Quote:
There's about 750,000 new voters coming on the register every year. And about 500k people, mostly over 65, die. If 60% of young voters vote and 65-75% of that age group continue to vote remain, you have a net gain of at least 150k remain voters a year. Not allowing for the most infirm being most unable to vote, the oldest group of voters saw turn outs about 80% and two thirds voting for Leave Thats about a net loss of 130k Leave votes a year. Unless generational attitudes change, in 5 years , the Leave margin of about 1.27 million votes is gone - attacked by the comings and goings, at both age extremes of the electorate.
There's also the potential for a lot more EU nationals to take out citizenship before we leave. . There's 3 million plus of them...... Thats why leave is so afraid of a second referendum - if anyone could think of a viable , logical, question. There's a big hole in your calculations even excepting that the assumptions are not all rubbish in the first place. |
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#279 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 8,076
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I cared at the time that some people i knew who voted out wouldn't live with the consequences but its done now and for now atleast, we're leaving the EU.
Even if half of them were dead the decision has been made and in 30 or so years, those of us who are still alive, will know if it was the right decision or not. Right now its all speculation. |
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#280 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Black Country lad in Yorkshire
Posts: 118,038
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Sad I agree but at least they lived to see Independence Day!
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#281 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 24,092
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I cared at the time that some people i knew who voted out wouldn't live with the consequences but its done now and for now atleast, we're leaving the EU.
Even if half of them were dead the decision has been made and in 30 or so years, those of us who are still alive, will know if it was the right decision or not. Right now its all speculation. |
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#282 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 34,224
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You're leaving out the fact that the age voting thing is a curve, not two steps. Those who are now close to the the next age group up vote more similarly to the average for the next age group. Those in the "old" age group who die are replaced by those from the middle group, the ones who are only slightly less likely to vote out.
There's a big hole in your calculations even excepting that the assumptions are not all rubbish in the first place. Your argument was strange. Old voters die. As they go, they take a large, disproportionate, number of Leave votes with them. Middleaged voters becoming older, doesn't create new Leave voters , it just means the 2015 ones are older. They are replaced by younger, more predominantly Remain, voters moving into the upper age ranges . and, at the youngest end ,there's a larger number of, predominantly Remain, voters joining the electorate. Leave loses its key elderly vote, the middle aged vote over time becomes more Remain, and the new voters, coming on to the register, are predominantly Remain voters. You seem to ignore the younger people, joining the electorate in larger numbers, or assume that voters act more like today's older voters , on this issue, as they get older. There's no reason to think that 30 year olds will suddenly start hankering after 1950s Britain when they get to 35 or 40 or even 60, or that an age group with more and more graduates will stop voting like the rest of the graduate population. . The only thing that would make Leave more popular in younger age groups would be if young people found Brexit had been a success - which is very unlikely , and almost impossible before leave's majority has gone - because any new trade arrangements will still be years off. Otherwise, they would have to have forgotten the benefits or being in, changed multiple attitudes they hold, or suddenly became Express and Mail readers. |
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#283 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 8,076
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in 30 years, exactly how will will we know whether it was the right decision ?
Besides, considering the claims on both sides, we'll either be better off financially as a country and individually or we wont, we'll either be less divided due to less people coming over here taking our jobs, women, food, benefits or whatever else is part of the latest version of that argument and we'll either be better off with a government who isn't accountable to the EU when deciding our rights or we wont. That's a start anyway. |
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#284 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Norwich, Tacolneston tx
Posts: 21,898
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If the EU continues down its present path I don't think we should assume it'll still be in existence in ten years from now, let alone thirty.
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#285 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 59,682
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Sad I agree but at least they lived to see Independence Day!
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#286 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 18,881
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Quote:
There's about 750,000 new voters coming on the register every year. And about 500k people, mostly over 65, die. If 60% of young voters vote and 65-75% of that age group continue to vote remain, you have a net gain of at least 150k remain voters a year. Not allowing for the most infirm being most unable to vote, the oldest group of voters saw turn outs about 80% and two thirds voting for Leave Thats about a net loss of 130k Leave votes a year. Unless generational attitudes change, in 5 years , the Leave margin of about 1.27 million votes is gone - attacked by the comings and goings, at both age extremes of the electorate.
There's also the potential for a lot more EU nationals to take out citizenship before we leave. . There's 3 million plus of them...... Thats why leave is so afraid of a second referendum - if anyone could think of a viable , logical, question. |
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#287 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 18,881
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Quote:
in 30 years, exactly how will will we know whether it was the right decision ?
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#288 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 18,881
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What will you be able to do on "Independence day" that you would't be allowed to do the day before?
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#289 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Exiting the EU.Hooray !
Posts: 1,505
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What will you be able to do on "Independence day" that you would't be allowed to do the day before?
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#290 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Exiting the EU.Hooray !
Posts: 1,505
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Don't recall Labour admitting their policy was to privatise the NHS, although their conduct as regards PFI's certainly does them no credit. At least the EU have managed to stop TTIP, if not CELTA.
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#291 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 328
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"Much has been made of the fact that the generation which will live with the consequences of the decision to leave the European Union didn't actually vote for it."
If the vote happened today it would have 52 - 48 for remain. https://www.indy100.com/article/brex...result-7463341 Also of note: "The British Election Study found that 6 per cent of Leave voters regretted their vote, compared to 1 per cent of Remain voters." That's just sick mate, anyway we all know polls are bullshit as is the nonsense pushed out by the so called British election study with their 6%, that's fag packet politics and totally irellevent. |
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#292 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 328
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Don't recall Labour admitting their policy was to privatise the NHS, although their conduct as regards PFI's certainly does them no credit. At least the EU have managed to stop TTIP, if not CELTA.
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#293 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2015
Posts: 1,427
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What a tasteful thread and what lovely attitudes being displayed. Better to be old than to be a c***.
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#294 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: A bunker
Posts: 5,962
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Quote:
You're leaving out the fact that the age voting thing is a curve, not two steps. Those who are now close to the the next age group up vote more similarly to the average for the next age group. Those in the "old" age group who die are replaced by those from the middle group, the ones who are only slightly less likely to vote out.
There's a big hole in your calculations even excepting that the assumptions are not all rubbish in the first place. |
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