Or is it just caught in a cyclical dip?

The polls are awful right now and given the Brexit challenges enveloping the Tory party and the very tough economic circumstances one would usually expect a party in opposition to be faring better - much better.

The problems facing Labour, in my assessment, run much deeper than just saying Corbyn is a crap leader and he needs to go - although, as much as I quite like the guy, he is without doubt part of the problem.

But Labour's issues are more complex than problems its leadership. The party faces a long term fight for relevance. Wiped out in Scotland and with nothing remotely to indicate it can ever again be a force north of the border. Most of its MPs at odds with the majority of the electorate in its traditional English heartlands. Increasingly unpopular in Wales as its monopoly of power and failure to deliver for the Welsh people breeds disenchantment. It really is facing an existential crisis almost everywhere.

With right wing populism on the rise in many western countries, the kind of neoliberalism allied with neoconservatism espoused by Blair and his minions is also now deeply unpopular so a return to New Labour values would, in my opinion, see Labour lose even more relevance.

The Labour Party looks to be in big trouble.

My own thoughts are that a leader like Clive Lewis, who passionately advocates progressive alliances, offers up their best hope of becoming even remotely electorally viable in future years but even then in some traditional Labour voting areas I still can't see the party regaining its once core support.

I don't think so but it currently is in no position to get into power.

I agree with most of your points......would also go to say (and I am into politics), I couldn't really name more than a handful of current Labour MPs who have any sort of gravitas, in the political arena and that must be worrying. Even before Corbyn took control there wasn't the great depth of 'quality' in the Labour Party.

I think the Labour party should split into two, because if the so called new Labour MPs think they will get back control of Labour after the next election they might be mistaken (under the current leadership voting system).

With Corbyns supporters within the Labour (indeed even the current Labour MP Jo Smith and Corbyn supporter) saying a few days ago on the daily politics that 'Migrants contribute most to her constituency', they are so out of touch with the feelings and thoughts of their constituencies, you just cant see them regaining the numbers needed (if you also take Scotlands once guaranteed 30+ seats) to win any time soon.

No more so than 1983 when Labour published the longest suicide note in history under Michael Foot.

Interesting piece in today's "Islington" Guardian about Carwyn Jones saying how Labour policy on immigration is "too London-centric and risks driving Labour supporters into the arms of Ukip"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...first-minister

They are not finished, British politics has and will always swing between Labour and Tories.

One party governs for ages and eventually they become stale and the public grow tired and the others step in. The Tories will no doubt win the next election but we will then have had a conservative PM from 2010-2025 and I'm pretty sure Labour will dump Corbyn so I imagine 2025 is their winning point.

Corbyn is absolutely shocking though. I mean the truly shocking thing is he doesn't even do what it says on the tin. How often have you seen him push ideas and policies that are actually left wing working class policies?? It's all about appealing to student union types. Then to top it off he seems to have a complete dislike of actually engaging in mainstream publicity ventures, which like it or not, do shape the general public mood and momentum about politics.

I imagine many said similar things during the 1920/1930's when the Liberals faced off against the Tories.

They have big by-election problems as long as Europe is the main issue. Remoaners are voting for the 100% Remainer Libs. Brexiteers are voting for either Brexiteer Tories or UKIP. Nobody is going to vote for split-down-the-middle Labour. Labour's only core vote is middle class leftists, public sector workers and unassimilated immigrants, which is not enough to form a nationwide party.

Yet more navel gazing, or how can we spin it/double talk our way through the immigration issue.
They'll pretend to "listen to people" then just ignore them, as they have done the last 10 years.

I haven't voted Labour since 1979 so have no axe to grind. There is, however, no reason why it should be finished other than a) the coup from the leftwing and b) the poor quality of most of the PLP.

The country is not overwhelmingly rightwing. The bulk of people are pretty centrist. The problem is with our terrible voting system. In most countries, with more proportional systems, it wouldn't be a disaster to have a leftwing Labour party. They would garner probably 20-25% of the vote, and have the requisite number of MPs. After negotiation, they would probably form a coalition with a Social Democratic type party, who would also have significant representation.

FPTP forces parties to be grand coalition BEFORE any election. Parties must have broad appeal to have any chance of victory - and it results in unwieldy coalitions which are forever fighting the other factions in the party. It's always been the case in the Tories, but their ruthlessness keeps it under control. Niche parties are crushed by the system, and that is precisely what Corbyn Labour has become. Had Labour had a more appealing leader in 2015, it could have won. It's policies weren't extreme - it was the fact that few could imagine Ed as PM that did for them.

The Momentum crowd are much like Brexiters. You cannot tell them anything - they have closed minds. Even after the next election, which could be devastating for Labour, they will insist it was the fault of The Media, or the moderate majority of the PLP for not giving Corbyn unbridled support. Things are likely to get worse before then too, as at some point a manifesto has to be agreed, which is going to be massively divisive. There can only be 2 outcomes - the hard left are overwhelmed, and a moderate new leader elected or the moderates leave and create a new centre-left party. I predict the latter. It will take a catastrophic election to force the issue.

It's a tragedy for our democracy, as currently it's a one party state. The electoral system is at the root of it all.

Considering how woeful the Tories are, Labour are clearly in a major crisis to be doing so badly. I don't think they are finished but they need to have a good look at themselves and, as much as Corbyn seems a decent bloke on a personal level, find a new leader as Corbyn is not the man for the job, imo.

Moving further to the left as the Tories move further to the right is not the answer, imo, and they should be looking to move to the centre left and centre right. It is particularly important, given the current government, that we get a proper opposition and a credible choice at the next election.

Unfortunately Europe is not the main issue in reality, but the Little Englanders are not seeing the bigger picture, which is stuff like this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7463256.html

Remaining in Europe MIGHT have offered us some measure of "muscle" against the march of the multinationals, the Gulf States and China, but on our own .........

It would be of value if Labour had something to say on these issues - perhaps it does but it's not being reported? There is so much going on behind closed doors it hardly bears thinking about.

No, of course not. They are the second largest party in the UK today.

Not quite, but they are at risk. There is a sense that the old way of doing things needs to change, and you'd think that with rising discontent at the status quo Corbyn's Labour would be in a position to hoover up the votes. People want more equality, more economic fairness, more accountability, as does Corbyn. But they also want someone to get a grip on immigration, they want someone who's strong on national defence - they want a patriot. Corbyn and his close circle don't feel like patriots. It feels like they are arguing for an ideology and not for what's in the best interests of the country. Corbyn has no idea how to appeal to nationalist sentiment.

This was the same manifesto which saw them jump 5 percentage points in the polls immediately after it's release?

And Foot was consistantly ahead in the polls up until the Falklands war, which gave the Tories a 15-20% boost in the polls.

I have this sneaky idea of Secret Leaver Corbyn becoming The Champion of Brexit. He stands up at PMQ's and keeps reading out "I have a letter here from Mary in Sunderland / Bob in Bolton / Liz in Harlow demanding that you, Prime Minister, hurry up and get on with Brexit."
Of course somewhere along the line he would have to ditch people like McDonnell and Thornberry, publicly reprimand the likes of Lammy and bring in saner Labour MPs, perhaps make Gisela Stuart Shadow for Brexit.
It's a fantasy of course, Labour seem hell-bent on going down the plughole to lurk in a damp, dark place for some years.

Labour might easily end up forming a coalition with the LibDems at the next general election.

Not a strong government, but neither was the last coalition.

They would have to be a coalition which is anti-EU/immigration/free movement in the north and in favour of it all in the south.

Or maybe Islington Labour could merge with the Lib Dems and Northern Labour with UKIP...

Highly unlikely. Under the Tory's boundary changes, Labour would have to beat the Tories by many percentage points in an election just to get a hung parliament.

Oh Lord, you're not clinging on to that are you? Do you think it's going to work this time?

Falklands or no Falklands, Foot would have been crushed at the GE. The vast majority did not want him as PM. And he was a man who's boots Corbyn is not fit to lick. Labour at the next election will make 83 look like a triumph.


Not a snowball's chance in hell. They won't get anywhere near enough seats. The Corbynista would never compromise in any case. They'd rather be a protest party than actually take part in government.

Quite.

The simple fact is that so long as there is no realignment of the Left in British politics, we will remain a one party state.

I'm not sure what the figures are for the new boundaries but under the current constituencies, Labour need over 100 gains to set a single figure majority. It's hard, if not impossible to see where those wins are going to come from. They may win a few seats back in Scotland on the basis than SNP support can only go down but they aren't going to get anywhere near the required number from marginal seats in England and Wales.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983

Conservative poll figures started improving before the Argentinians invaded In April 1982 when the Argentinians invaded - one Gallup/Telegraph poll during that month had Labour in the lead by -5%, two days after Argentina invaded Labour's lead was 1% - that was the last time Labour were in the lead up to June 1982. June 14th was when the war ended - the Conservative lead had increased to 16.5, but that was actually lower than it's peak the previous month. The polls took until the next year to really move Conservative support higher.

Labour polls figures started going down just after just after the start of 1981 - the year before the war, the Liberals being the main beneficiaries

It was Labour MP Gerald Kaufman who described the Labour Manifesto as the longest suicide note in history.

Called that by the right wing press. The defeat was in 1983 was due to the Falklands and SDP splitting the anti-Tory vote

Remember that for centuries it was Whigs (Liberals) vs Tories and only in the 20s and 30s did Labour start overtaking the Liberals. Nothing is permanent in politics, but Labour isn't dead yet.

The main problem is that Labour has lost direction. The destruction of trade unions by the Tories has lost Labour its traditional base and it is now populated by a preponderance of political wonks who have a degree in politics from somewhere and then worked as political advisors or in PR or marketing. While Wilson also had a PPE degree, he was surrounded by trade unionists and mature graduates of Ruskin college who knew what people want and were in touch with them. Whilst Miliband would have been infinitely preferable over Cameron, he epitomises the out of touch academic approach to politics which does not appeal to most people.

If you bring Scotland in to the equation, labour lost its sense of purpose years ago and the SNP took over its place in the popular psyche. Leaders like the nasty Jim Murphy and the incompetent Kezia Dugdale just cemented the position as a party held in contempt by the vast majority of the public. Let's also add to working closely with the Tories in the Scottish referendum made a lot of people revile them.

The main problem with Labour in England (which is what we are really discussing) is that they are run by an elitist group of MPs who are totally out of touch. Corbyn was nominated last year as a balance to 3 identikit establishment candidates, and they just didn't expect him to win. The chicken coup showed a sense of entitlement by the rebel MPs who really didn't understand what the membership wanted, and the timing was the absolute worst it could be, when the Tories were at their weakest. Corbyn is a symptom of what is happening with Labour, not a cause, so just addressing the symptom will not help longevity, just make it look better for a short while.

Long term solution - difficult but needs to go back to having people with local roots standing in constituencies, with decent working backgrounds in the area. Parachuting establishment candidates into safe seats (e.g. Miliband in Doncaster or Sunderland) needs to stop instantly. It will take years and a really bad Tory government for Labour to recover, but they will (in England).

They had started to improve, but Labour and Foot were still consistently in the lead in the vast majority of polls, bar one or two. You just have to look at the graph at the top of your link to see the effect the Falklands had on the polls.