4 Couple Week with a Draw at the Bottom
Judge Rank: Ore (first), Danny, Louise and Claudia (joint last)
Percentage Chance in Dance Off (fair 50.0%): Ore = 33.3%, Danny = 50.0%, Louise = 58.3%, Claudia = 58.3%.
Percentage Chance Eliminated (fair 25.0%): Ore = 0.0%, Danny = 8.3%, Louise = 45.8%, Claudia = 45.8%.

Percentage chance of one of judges' bottom 2 eliminated: 91.6%

Edit (some more info):

Ore:
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 1st with the public.
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 2nd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 2 in 6 cases when they are 3rd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 4th with the public.

Danny:
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 1st with the public.
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 2nd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 3rd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 4th with the public.

Louise:
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 1st with the public.
Will be in dance off in 2 in 6 cases when they are 2nd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 3rd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 4th with the public.

Claudia:
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 1st with the public.
Will be in dance off in 2 in 6 cases when they are 2nd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 3rd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 4th with the public.

I think it is almost odds-on that one of Louise or Claudia will be eliminated.

If you want one of these to get through you need to vote like mad.

Whoever you like just vote for one. Splitting your votes is a very bad idea.

It's far too close, you must give all your votes to one celebrity.

Vote for one couple your favourite only time to stop splitting votes

Ore:
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 1st with the public.
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 2nd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 2 in 6 cases when they are 3rd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 4th with the public.

Danny:
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 1st with the public.
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 2nd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 3rd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 4th with the public.

Louise:
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 1st with the public.
Will be in dance off in 2 in 6 cases when they are 2nd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 3rd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 4th with the public.

Claudia:
Will be in dance off in 0 in 6 cases when they are 1st with the public.
Will be in dance off in 2 in 6 cases when they are 2nd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 3rd with the public.
Will be in dance off in 6 in 6 cases when they are 4th with the public.

Shock horror gasp, the two people at the bottom of the public vote are highly likely to be in the dance off. Time for the mathematicians to step aside and let the public do their thing!

(The public will be moaning about the judging regardless)

I agree with both of you. The maths says you are correct.

Pick one favourite you must see in the final and give all your votes to them. It is the safest thing to.

But daveGold, I do think the judges have saved Ore tonight. The pro dancers, not on the show, I have spoken to so far on the phone placed Ore last. They placed Danny first.

They also think Claudia was massively undermarked.

Well, based on your maths I gave all my votes to Claudia, despite being extremely keen to see Ore in the final. So if he ends up in the DO, I will hunt you down B_OR...

Yes, I gave all my votes to Claudia as well. (I also like Ore like yourself, although I do not think he did his best dances tonight. I hope they let him do his jive again in the final.)

Even if Ore is in the dance off, it does not matter which dance he has to do as he was top with both. So if he is in the DO, I think he is safe. Although be wary that the judges have not reversed a decision in the dance off yet this year. Some on these forums say they do one every year to justify the existence of the dance off.

I always only vote for one couple. I have never split my votes.

I think that is wise, especially in the last 3 or 4 weeks.

In the early weeks splitting votes is OK, but only if your favourites are not at opposite ends of the leaderboard. If they are at opposite ends, then it is a really bad idea to split votes.

I really think that this thread could do with a dose of Bayesian statistics. Because whilst a pure mathematical approach can assign equal odds to all these possibilities I think we all know that some are more likely than others

To be honest looking at those probabilities I think the tie is a good thing - they are, IMO, about what they should be. Whoever comes last with the public WILL be bottom 2 and whoever gets the most votes WILL go through to the final - excellent!

The only person who has a clear advantage is Ore, but I think it is very likely that he is 4th with the public. So I agree there is no foregone conclusion.

I don't think it is a foregone conclusion that Ore would not be eliminated even if he were in the dance off since didn't Claudia get two 10s. So judges could be split 2:2. So the 0% probability is actually slightly misleading.

Very ture Ann_Dancer.

Also it depends on which dance they have to dance. I did not see the semi last year, but didn't the dance off go against the overall score because the one who got through was allowed to dance their higher scored dance which was better overall.

I have given all my votes to Claudia too, but as Ann_Archer says, if Ore is in the dance off with another who has scored two 10s in the dance they have to do, then it could be 2:2 and will be down to Len on a decider.

In another thread daveGold gave some useful stats:

Originally Posted by davegold
Here's how the judges ranked the couples with their scores tonight

Craig - Danny 1st, Louise 2nd, Claudia & Ore 3rd=
Darcy - Ore 1st, rest 2nd=
Len - Ore 1st, Claudia & Danny 2nd=, Louise 3rd
Bruno - Danny & Ore 1st=, Claudia & Louise 2nd=

From this we can determine who would win dance offs if the judges repeated their beliefs. Unfortunately this might be different depending on the dances they must do in the dance off:

Dance Off:
Ore + Danny: Danny eliminated.
Ore + Louise: Louise eliminated.
Ore + Claudia: Claudia eliminated.
Danny + Louise: Louise eliminated.
Danny + Claudia: Unknown. Danny would have 2 votes, but the other 2 could go either way.
Louise + Claudia: Unknown. Both have 1 vote, and the other 2 could go either way.

Does anyone know which dances they would have to perform in the DO, and what marks the judges gave for them?