Originally Posted by CELT1987:
“Until electric cars can get same fuel range as diesel and petrol, then people will still stay with these cars. Charging is also a huge problem as is the cost of the batteries.”
The move to electric is inevitable, but more than that I'm not even sure that people will want a car. For those of my generation, and the generations either side learning to drive and having a car was a right of passage, it was the time when we were free from the Mum & Dad taxi service, it was freedom to be out when we wanted. But that goes out the window if you don't need to even drive the vehicle, or even own it.
The car which has become a symbol of freedom for many young people - has a considerable ecological damage and not just because of the chemicals that come out the back. The land that is used because we all own our own car is considerable and the effect of concreting this land means it is less able to absorb water, more prone to flooding - and all for an expensive piece of hardware that spends 90-95% of it's time sitting doing nothing.
For an increasingly urbanised population it makes little economic sense to actually own a personalised vehicle when you can use a car club. (The situation is different for those in the countryside). Electric cars will handle the environmental impact - but combine that with autonomous cars and they will be able to handle refuelling.
Tesla have done a lot of work on battery life - such that batteries will be able to last. Not only that but things like the GigaFactory will see the price go down (it is a basic rule of economics that increase the supply and you reduce the price). They have also worked to reduce the cost.
I can see car companies moving away from selling cars to having their own car clubs - where you will not own a car, but pay a subscription to have a car arrive on demand.
But while technology changes fast - cultures change slowly. But there are many competing demands that will effect how this happens. As less people own cars then so the price will come down and with governmental pressure to avoid supply of petrol cars these will have to be electric. This in turn will increase the incentive for car companies to reduce the price of electric and not to produce petrol cars - but this will be slowed down because demand for all vehicles will reduce.
So a governmental plan to phase out petrol cars would be a sensible policy, but will take 10-20 years to come to fruition.